RentalCalcs ranks US rental markets by applying common financing and expense assumptions to area-level housing data. The rankings help compare places to investigate; they do not estimate the return on a particular house. As checked October 17, 2026, both a positive home-value index and a positive rent index are required for a county to enter the rental rankings.
Start with the best markets rankings, then read the assumptions beside the result. The same area can lead on percentage yield and trail on monthly dollars. Changing the property expenses can change both answers.
What the rankings measure and the data behind them
The rankings combine separate home-value and asking-rent indices with a standardized purchase model, rather than observing a matched house and lease.
Which data feeds the comparison?
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| Input | What the source measures | How to use it |
|---|---|---|
| Zillow Home Value Index, ZHVI | Typical home value; not the median price of homes sold this month | Compare area-level values and historical changes |
| Zillow Observed Rent Index, ZORI | A weighted repeat-rent index of asking rents; not a signed-lease median | Compare area-level rent signals, not a specific unit's achievable rent |
| Census ACS population and household income | Survey estimates for a stated period | Check population eligibility and the model's price-to-income comparison |
| Year-over-year home-value change | Change in the home-value series | Describe the recent past; do not treat it as a forward return |
Sources: Zillow's ZHVI method, ZORI method and Census guidance on ACS estimate periods, checked October 17, 2026. The home-value and rental series cover different housing populations. A ratio between them is a screening signal, not a matched-property yield.
What does the model assume?
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| Assumption | County and metro ranking model | Replace before an offer |
|---|---|---|
| Down payment | 20% of modeled price | Actual loan program and lender terms |
| Amortization | 30-year fixed-payment loan | Quoted rate, term and fees |
| Mortgage rate | One shared rate, printed on the ranking page | A dated quote for the actual borrower and property |
| Closing costs | 3% of price | Itemized transaction costs |
| Operating-cost allowance | 35% of scheduled rent | Property-specific taxes, insurance, vacancy, management and repairs |
| Modeled initial cash | 23% of price: down payment plus closing costs | Add rehabilitation, initial reserves and other applicable cash needs |
Source: RentalCalcs ranking implementation and the cash-flow ranking's methodology note, checked October 17, 2026. These are model assumptions, not measured local expense averages. The mortgage input is maintained separately from the housing data; it is not a live investor-loan quote.
The CFPB's loan-comparison guidance explains why the rate alone is insufficient when comparing financing. Keep loan charges and the cash required at closing visible alongside the monthly payment.
Which places qualify?
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| List | Population rule | Display limit and selection |
|---|---|---|
| National county cash flow, cap rate, appreciation and overall | At least 50,000 | Top 50 qualifying counties by the chosen metric |
| Counties under $200,000 | No population floor | Price below $200,000, then cap rate; top 50 |
| Cheapest counties with positive cash flow | No population floor | Positive modeled monthly cash, then lowest price; top 50 |
| State lists | No population floor | At least five rankable counties required; cap rate, top 50 |
| Metro lists | At least 250,000 | Top 25 qualifying metros by the chosen metric |
Source: RentalCalcs ranking rules, checked October 17, 2026. Metro population is approximated from linked counties, rather than taken from a direct official metro population series. County, metro and ZIP boundaries are different comparisons; use the metro rankings when the wider region is the intended unit.
What do the scores mean?
Scores express the model's preferences on a 0-100 scale. They are not probabilities of profit, independent market appraisals or forecasts.
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| County component | Input and scoring behavior | Limitation |
|---|---|---|
| Cash flow | Annual rent divided by value; 10% or above scores 100 | A gross ratio, not cash after financing and expenses |
| Appreciation | Piecewise score based on year-over-year home-value change; 3-8% receives high scores, with penalties above 12% | A model preference, not evidence that a growth rate is sustainable |
| Stability | Population growth; missing growth receives 50 | No county employment or employer-concentration component |
| Affordability | Home value relative to household income; lower ratios score higher | Missing income is replaced with a $70,000 assumption, not a verified local income |
Source: RentalCalcs score functions, checked October 17, 2026. The cash-flow component interpolates between annual-ratio thresholds: 3% gives 15, 4% gives 30, 5% gives 45, 6% gives 60, 8% gives 80 and 10% gives 100. Below 3%, the score is the annual ratio expressed as a decimal times 500, with a floor of zero.
- Check the inputs: a county with usable rent can receive a rental ranking. A map score may exist even when rent is missing.
- Read the weights: the two blends below are different models, despite sharing the same 0-100 display scale.
- Compare like with like: a high score without rent is not evidence of rental yield. Collect rent evidence before making that comparison.
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| Component | Rent available | Rent missing on map |
|---|---|---|
| Cash flow | 30% | Excluded |
| Appreciation | 25% | 40% |
| Stability | 25% | 30% |
| Affordability | 20% | 30% |
Source: RentalCalcs county score implementation, checked October 17, 2026. Each column totals 100%. Missing rent excludes a county from rental rankings; the alternate blend applies to its map score.
Metro scoring also uses unemployment; its job-growth input is currently fixed at zero. That differs from the county stability calculation. On the market map, labels such as Strong Buy are score bands: 75+, 60-74 for Buy, 45-59 for Hold and below 45 for Avoid. They do not establish that a property is suitable for purchase.
How current are the inputs?
- Page refresh: ranking pages use a seven-day cache interval. A rebuilt page does not establish that every underlying series was refreshed that day.
- Housing observations: inspect the displayed data date and the relevant Zillow series and release notes. A download date and an observation month mean different things.
- Survey period: ACS five-year estimates combine five years of observations. Do not describe them as a single month's population or income.
- Financing: check the rate printed on the page, then replace it with a current quote. This article's worked example deliberately uses an assumed 7% rate.
Why dollar cash flow and cap rate produce different lists
Dollar cash flow measures the modeled monthly surplus, while cap rate measures annual operating income relative to price before financing.
The two invented markets below use the same 20% down payment, 3% closing costs, 35% operating allowance and 30-year loan at an assumed 7%. They are not current market observations. The second view changes only Market A's expense allowance to show how fragile an area-level comparison can be.
Original calculation · hypothetical USD inputs
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| Input or result | Market A | Market B |
|---|---|---|
| Modeled price | $120,000 | $300,000 |
| Monthly rent | $1,200 | $2,700 |
| Loan principal | $96,000 | $240,000 |
| Monthly principal and interest | $639 | $1,597 |
| Monthly operating allowance | $420 | $945 |
| Monthly cash after debt | $141 | $158 |
| Annual NOI | $9,360 | $21,060 |
| Initial purchase cash | $27,600 | $69,000 |
| Cap rate | 7.80% | 7.02% |
| Annual cash-on-cash return | 6.14% | 2.75% |
RentalCalcs calculation, October 17, 2026. NOI = 12 × rent × (1 − expense share). Cash = monthly NOI − amortizing loan payment. Cap rate = annual NOI ÷ price; cash-on-cash = annual cash ÷ initial purchase cash. Calculations retain full precision; dollars are rounded for display.
Raise Market A’s costs and the yield advantage disappears
Keep prices, rents and financing unchanged. Move A’s operating allowance from 35% to 40%, then 45%; leave B at 35%.
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| Scenario | Monthly operating costs | Monthly cash | Cap rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| A: 35% costs | $420 | $141 | 7.80% |
| A: 40% costs | $480 | $81 | 7.20% |
| A: 45% costs | $540 | $21 | 6.60% |
| B: 35% costs | $945 | $158 | 7.02% |
At 45% costs, A’s cap rate falls to 6.60%, below B’s 7.02%. A still has positive modeled monthly cash, but only about $21. A broad market ranking does not reveal the actual expense ratio of the property being considered.
- The 35%, 40% and 45% allowances are hypothetical aggregate operating-cost scenarios, not measured market averages. No separate income growth or appreciation is assumed.
- Initial purchase cash includes 20% down and 3% closing costs. It excludes rehabilitation, initial reserves and other unmodeled acquisition charges.
- Cash is before income taxes and separate capital-reserve funding. Actual leasing losses and operating costs must replace the allowance, not be added twice.
RentalCalcs sensitivity calculation, October 17, 2026. Bars start at zero and share a $200 monthly-cash scale; the complete values are in the table. Neither fictional market is a pictured location or a current investment recommendation.
Market B produces about $17 more monthly cash at the base assumptions. Market A has the higher percentage yield and needs less purchase cash. Neither result settles the investment choice. The cap-rate guide explains the unlevered measure; the cash-on-cash guide explains why the equity denominator matters.
The trap of duplicate rankings: one metric in different clothes
Fixed proportional assumptions can make differently named metrics produce the same underlying order.
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| Relationship | Why it happens | When the conclusion stops holding |
|---|---|---|
| Cap rate = annual rent-to-price ratio × 0.65 | The operating allowance is fixed at 35% of rent | Actual expense ratios differ |
| Cash-on-cash return = cap rate ÷ 0.23 − financing constant | Both the loan and initial cash scale with price | Financing, reserves, rehab or closing costs differ independently of price |
| Dollar cash flow can rank differently | Absolute surplus also depends on the property's price | A percentage rank cannot substitute for the dollar calculation |
Source: RentalCalcs algebra for the assumptions above, checked October 17, 2026. When cap rate and cash-on-cash are expressed as percentages, the financing constant at the example 7% rate is approximately 27.77 percentage points. Using unrounded values preserves the same order; displayed rounding can create ties and minor order differences.
- Avoid counting the same signal twice: rent-to-price and modeled cap rate are not independent confirmations under a fixed operating allowance. Use the cap-rate rankings for that screening task.
- Check the sorting rule: the under-$200,000 list filters by price before sorting by cap rate. The affordable-cash-flow list instead sorts qualifying properties by price.
- Read score ties modestly: equal sort values are broken by larger population, then a stable identifier ordering. One place above another can reflect a tie-break, not a meaningful economic difference.
The thin-data rule: why some states have no page
A state ranking requires at least five counties with usable price and rent inputs; missing rent excludes a county from the rental rankings.
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| Situation | What the model does | What it does not establish |
|---|---|---|
| Rent missing or nonpositive | Excludes the county from rental rankings | That local rentals earn zero or that the market is unattractive |
| Fewer than five rankable counties in a state | Omits the state ranking page | That the state has no worthwhile investments |
| No rent, but a map score exists | Drops cash flow and changes the score weights | A like-for-like rental-yield comparison with rent-covered counties |
| Coverage changes after a data refresh | The eligible set can change | That a moved rank necessarily means the property's economics changed |
Source: RentalCalcs eligibility rules, checked October 17, 2026. Published coverage counts change with available series and valid geographic matches; this guide does not freeze an old count into a current claim. Consult Zillow's data definitions before treating absent observations as market outcomes.
What rankings cannot tell you about a specific deal
A market ranking cannot supply the matched rents, operating records or financing terms needed to underwrite an individual property.
Is this a comparative rental analysis for a house?
No. Here, comparative rental analysis means comparing broad market signals. A property-level rent comparison needs similar units, recent availability, lease terms, concessions and condition. Use the rent-pricing guide to build that comparison and the rent-estimate tool for area context.
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| Missing from the ranking | Evidence to collect | Effect on the decision |
|---|---|---|
| Matched units and signed terms | Comparable listings, confirmed leases, utilities and incentives | Changes achievable rent and expected collections |
| Address-specific costs | Tax records, insurance quotes, HOA terms and management proposals | Replaces the 35% allowance |
| Building condition | Inspection, repair scope and replacement schedule | Changes initial cash and ongoing reserves |
| Vacancy and payment timing | Local leasing evidence and the property's rent roll | Changes annual income and the cash buffer |
| Employment concentration | Employer and labor-market evidence for the actual region | Complements the county population-only stability score |
| Future sale outcome | Separate price, selling-cost and loan-balance scenarios | Prevents recent appreciation from becoming a promised exit value |
Source: the model omissions described above and RentalCalcs' property-level underwriting workflow. The NOI guide separates operating expenses from financing; the pro forma guide turns the collected evidence into a forecast. ZORI's asking-rent method does not supply a property's collected rent, vacancy or concession history.
From ranked list to underwritten offer
Use a ranking to choose where to investigate, then make the offer depend on the property's own evidence.
- Choose the question: monthly cash, yield, entry price or a blended score. The market-selection guide helps connect the screen to your objective.
- Keep a comparable shortlist: use the same geography and observation period. Record which candidates lack a key input rather than treating blanks as zeros.
- Replace assumptions: gather matched rents, expenses, financing, repairs and cash reserves. The 10-minute rental screen helps identify what still needs verification.
- Run a downside case: lower collections or increase costs, one change at a time. Check whether cash remains adequate before relying on the base case.
- Underwrite the property: enter verified inputs in the single-family calculator. Purchase cash of 23% in the ranking is not a complete acquisition-and-reserve budget.
Last checked October 17, 2026: Zillow's ZHVI and ZORI methods and data definitions, Census ACS estimate-period guidance, CFPB loan-comparison guidance, and RentalCalcs' county, metro and score implementations. The examples are original calculations with hypothetical inputs; the photographs identify places and data providers, not investment recommendations.
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