Ellis County

Ellis County sits at a median home price of $247,209, up 4.05% year-over-year, with an affordability index of 77 out of 100. The dataset does not include a cap rate, gross rent multiplier, or cash-on-cash figure for this county, which limits the precision of any cash-flow underwrite. What the scoring data does tell you is telling on its own: the cash-flow score is 0, the appreciation score is 83, and the overall score of 71 places Ellis in the 82nd national percentile out of 1,000 counties analyzed. That profile, a near-zero cash-flow grade paired with a high appreciation grade, puts Ellis squarely on the appreciation end of the spectrum. Buyers acquiring at $247,209 with 20% down ($49,442) and financing the balance at 6.85% are carrying meaningful debt service, and without a published rent estimate in this dataset, the cash-flow math cannot be completed here, but the scoring model's zero cash-flow grade is itself a signal that income relative to purchase price is thin.

The investor this market suits is one oriented toward long-term capital accumulation rather than immediate income. An 83 appreciation score at a $247,209 entry price, which is meaningfully below many comparable Great Plains markets, suggests the model sees price trajectory as the primary return driver. A cash-flow buyer who needs month-one positive carry should look elsewhere in this dataset; the combination of a 6.85% rate environment, a zero cash-flow score, and no published rent-to-price ratio in the source data is not a profile that pencils for income-first underwriting. A value-add operator with a specific project thesis, renovating distressed stock to force appreciation or push rents above market, might find the $247,209 median a workable ceiling, but that operator should build their own rent comps before underwriting any specific deal.

No economic anchors or employer data were provided for Ellis County, so no claims about the local job base or institutional demand drivers can be made here. Investors should independently verify the county's employment concentration before assuming rental demand depth.

On carry costs, the combined monthly tax and insurance burden runs approximately $410 per month, using a state-average effective property tax rate of 1.41% and an insurance rate of 0.58%. That is $3,486 annually in property taxes and $1,434 annually in insurance, before any mortgage payment, maintenance reserve, or management fee. At 1.41%, the property tax rate falls into the "normal" range for this dataset, meaning it is neither a notable tailwind nor a material headwind relative to Kansas norms. That said, and the source data makes this explicit, the 1.41% figure is a state-average effective rate sourced from the Tax Foundation's 2024 data, and actual county and township assessments in Ellis can and often do differ. Any serious underwrite should pull the county assessor's effective rate on the specific parcel, not rely on the state average. The $410 monthly tax-and-insurance figure is real money in a market where the cash-flow score is already zero; it deserves its own line on the model, not absorption into a generic expense ratio.

The stability score of 50 is the data point that warrants the most investor attention as a risk flag. A midpoint stability score on a county with a population of 28,921 suggests the model sees meaningful variability in the underlying market, whether from population trends, income volatility, or some combination. With no published vacancy or demographic data in the provided dataset, the specific driver cannot be named, but a 50 stability score paired with a 0 cash-flow score creates a risk profile that demands conservative underwriting assumptions. Investors with less tolerance for market cyclicality should weight this number seriously. Concentration risk in small-population Kansas counties is also a general consideration: a single large employer departure or enrollment decline at a local institution can move vacancy metrics faster than in a metropolitan market, though no specific employer data was provided here to assess that risk directly.

Among the five neighboring counties provided, Ellis at $247,209 sits near the middle of the price range. Barton County ($119,265) and Cowley County ($120,283) both come in at roughly half Ellis's median price, and Barton's published rent-to-price ratio of 0.0828 is the strongest gross yield signal in the neighbor dataset. Geary County at $212,411 carries a rent-to-price ratio of 0.0707, which, while lower than Barton's, still represents a named gross yield figure that Ellis's own data does not supply. Pottawatomie County ($311,680) and Jackson County ($262,894) are higher-priced neighbors with overall scores of 71 and 70 respectively, similar to Ellis's 71. The case for choosing Ellis over its neighbors comes down to the appreciation thesis: its 83 appreciation score is not visible in the neighbor data for comparison, but if that score reflects genuine price momentum at a $247,209 entry point that is more accessible than Pottawatomie, an appreciation-oriented buyer gets a lower basis for what the model rates as a strong price-growth market. A cash-flow buyer, by contrast, should be looking seriously at Barton or Geary before committing to Ellis.