Lawrence County

Lawrence County prices out at a median of $454,822 against median rent of $1,428, producing a gross rent-to-price ratio of 0.38% per month, or roughly 4.5% annualized. That is well below the 8% gross yield threshold most cash-flow investors use as a floor, and the modeled cap rate of 2.45% confirms the gap. At a 20% down payment of $90,964, a 6.85% rate generates a monthly mortgage of $2,384. Add $500 in estimated operating expenses and $622 in monthly taxes and insurance, and the all-in carry runs to approximately $3,506 against $1,428 in rent, producing negative cash flow of roughly $1,456 per month, and a cash-on-cash return of -16.7%. Home prices declined 1.18% year-over-year, so there is no near-term appreciation to offset that bleed. The overall score of 38 out of 100, a national percentile ranking of 3rd, and a state rank of 47th out of 50 South Dakota counties all point to the same conclusion: this is one of the least investor-friendly markets in the dataset by conventional rental metrics.

The numbers suit almost no archetype of rental buyer well at current prices and rates. A cash-flow buyer is looking at nearly $17,500 in annual losses before any capital expenditure, vacancy, or management fees, so this market fails that test entirely. An appreciation buyer might consider it given the tourism and recreation character of the Black Hills region, but with prices already down 1.18% on a year-over-year basis and an affordability index of just 35, the local buyer pool is constrained, which limits the upside case. A value-add operator would need to source assets well below the $454,822 median to have any path to positive returns, and even then the 2.45% cap rate environment means the margin for execution error is nearly zero. The only realistic use case here is a long-hold, cash-rich buyer who values the location for personal reasons and treats the rental income as an offset rather than a return on capital.

The taxInsurance data puts a finer point on the carry. At a state-average effective property tax rate of 1.28%, the rate itself falls in the normal range and is not an exceptional burden. But the dollar impact is real: $5,822 annually in estimated taxes and $1,637 in insurance produces $622 per month in combined carrying cost before the mortgage even enters the picture. That $622 alone represents 44% of the $1,428 in rent, which illustrates how the cost structure at this price point is structurally misaligned with the rent level. Note that 1.28% is a state-average estimate per Tax Foundation 2024 data, and actual Lawrence County or township-level rates may differ, so verify the specific parcel rate before closing any underwrite.

Without economic anchor data provided, the employment and demand-driver picture cannot be assessed with precision here, and fabricating employer names or industry concentration claims would not be appropriate. What the population figure of 26,047 does establish is that Lawrence County is a small market, which carries its own risk profile. Small population centers are more sensitive to single-employer contractions, demographic outflows, and seasonal demand swings. A market of this size with a median price of nearly $455,000 carries concentration risk by definition, even without knowing the specific sources of that demand. Any serious underwrite should include a stress test on what happens to rents and occupancy if the primary demand driver softens.

Compared to its neighbors, Lawrence County is the most expensive market in the group by a significant margin. Butte County sits at $352,137 with an overall score of 46, Campbell County at $190,297 also scoring 46, Sanborn County at $226,489 scoring 43, and Bennett County at $199,769 scoring 38. Lawrence scores the same as Bennett at 38 but carries a $255,000 price premium, making it the worst value proposition in the peer set on a score-per-dollar basis. Butte County is the most direct comparison: it scores 8 points higher than Lawrence, prices in $100,000 lower, and presents a far more favorable entry point for any investor trying to work toward positive leverage. Campbell County at $190,297 and a score of 46 offers the highest overall score in the group at less than half Lawrence's price. An investor choosing Lawrence over any of these neighbors is essentially paying a large premium for a specific location attribute, likely the Black Hills tourism draw or a personal affinity for the area. On pure investment math, Lawrence County does not compete with its neighbors, and the burden of proof for any acquisition here falls entirely on a thesis that is not yet supported by the current numbers.