Union County

Union County sits at a gross rent-to-price ratio of 5.21%, which translates to a 3.39% cap rate at the modeled purchase price of $363,556. That spread tells you most of what you need to know: the market leans hard toward appreciation, not cash flow. The appreciation score of 83 out of 100 reflects 3.98% year-over-year price growth, but the cash-flow score of 48 confirms the income side is not carrying its weight. At a 6.85% financing rate with 20% down, the model produces a monthly mortgage of $1,906 against estimated rent of $1,579, yielding negative cash flow of $879 per month and a cash-on-cash return of -12.61%. This is not a rounding error or a deal-by-deal quirk; it is a structural feature of a market where home prices have run ahead of rents.

That math sorts investors quickly. A pure cash-flow buyer has no real case here. The numbers do not work at current prices and rates without a material purchase discount, seller concessions, or a rent premium above the county median. An appreciation buyer or a build-equity-through-paydown investor who can absorb a monthly carry deficit has more reason to look, given the 3.98% annual price growth and an appreciation score that ranks well. The value-add operator is the most interesting candidate, but only if acquisition costs can be driven meaningfully below the $363,556 median, enough to compress that cap rate deficit. The affordability index of 52 and an overall rank of 426 out of 1,000 counties nationally (46th percentile) suggest Union is not a screaming value, but it is not priced for perfection either.

On the carry-cost side, the combined monthly tax and insurance burden comes to $497, already embedded in the $553 estimated expense figure. The property tax rate is modeled at 1.28% using the state-average effective rate from Tax Foundation 2024 data, and the county or township rate you actually pay may differ, so pull the county assessor numbers before closing. At 1.28%, the rate lands in the normal range, neither a meaningful tailwind nor a penalty, but at roughly $388 per month in tax alone on a $363,556 asset, it is a real line item that tightens an already negative cash-flow picture and deserves its own row on your underwrite.

The neighboring counties in the dataset tell a sharper story about what Union is and is not. Miner County ($182,594 median), Bon Homme County ($175,114), and Corson County ($159,475) all carry median prices roughly half of Union's, with overall scores within a few points of each other (56 to 60). Hutchinson County at $213,908 and Day County at $248,151 also trail Union's price point significantly while scoring comparably overall (60 and 55, respectively). The implication is straightforward: if cash flow is your primary objective, the surrounding counties offer far more price-accessible entry points with similar or better overall scores. You would choose Union over those neighbors specifically when you believe its price appreciation trajectory, whatever is driving it, is durable enough to justify the carry cost. If that conviction is absent or unverifiable, the neighbors offer the same risk profile at a fraction of the capital commitment.

The core risk here is concentration and size. Union County's population of 16,700 means rental demand is thin and non-diversified. A single large employer contracting, a demographic shift, or even modest supply additions can move vacancy materially in a market this small. There is no economic anchor data provided for this county, so no employer-specific demand case can be made. That absence is itself a caution flag: if you cannot independently identify what is driving 3.98% annual price appreciation and stable rental demand in a county of under 17,000 people, you are underwriting an assumption rather than a thesis. Verify the demand driver before you act on the appreciation score.