Vernon market analysis
Vernon County comes in at a median home price of $267,521, up 9.26% year-over-year, with an affordability index of 73 out of 100. That price appreciation rate is the headline here: the market scores an 82 on appreciation but a 0 on cash flow, which tells you almost everything about where this county sits on the spectrum. The cap rate and cash-on-cash return fields are blank in the underlying data, which is itself a signal, but the directional story is clear. At a 6.85% financing rate on a $267,521 purchase with a $53,504 down payment, the math on monthly carry is going to be tight against whatever rent a rural Wisconsin county of 30,811 people supports. This is not a market where the numbers pencil as a cash-flow play on a standard leveraged acquisition.
The investor this market suits is someone buying for appreciation rather than yield. The 9.26% YoY price gain and an 82 appreciation score, combined with a national percentile rank of 81st out of 1,000 counties, suggest Vernon is outperforming most of the country on price momentum. An all-cash buyer or a low-leverage buyer who can tolerate thin or neutral monthly returns while the asset appreciates has the clearest case here. A pure cash-flow buyer, the type underwriting to a 7% or 8% cap rate, should look elsewhere. A value-add operator could potentially find opportunity if acquisition prices on distressed assets come in meaningfully below the $267,521 median, but the small population base, 30,811 people, limits the exit pool and the depth of the rental market, so the value-add thesis carries execution risk that the numbers alone don't fully capture.
No economic anchor employers were provided for Vernon County, so drawing conclusions about job-base stability or demand drivers from named employers is not possible. What the population figure does tell you is that this is a small, rural county. Rental demand will be thinly spread, and vacancy sensitivity will be higher than in a metro market. A single vacant unit represents a proportionally larger drag on portfolio performance than it would in a market with a deep renter pool.
The carry cost picture deserves careful attention. Wisconsin's state-average effective property tax rate is 1.85%, flagged as high, and that rate is material enough to put on its own line in your underwrite. On a $267,521 purchase, that works out to $4,949 in annual property taxes, or roughly $412 per month just for taxes. Add $615 annually, $51 per month, for insurance at the 0.23% rate, and the combined tax-and-insurance load is approximately $464 per month before you account for mortgage principal and interest, maintenance, vacancy, or management. That is a real number. The standard caveat applies: 1.85% is the state-average effective rate from Tax Foundation 2024 data, and actual county and township assessments in Vernon may differ, so pull the real county rate before finalizing any underwrite.
The concentration risk here is structural. A rural county with a population under 31,000 offers limited diversification across property types, tenants, and exit buyers. If the regional economy softens or outmigration accelerates, there are fewer institutional buyers, fewer owner-occupant buyers, and fewer renters to absorb inventory. The stability score of 50 is the weakest dimension in Vernon's profile and reflects this thinness. An investor building a multi-unit rural Wisconsin portfolio should weight that score heavily.
Compared to the neighboring counties provided, Vernon's median of $267,521 sits above Langlade ($208,908), Marinette ($205,028), Marquette ($257,231), and Pepin ($267,147), and just below Oconto ($289,938). On the overall score, Vernon ties Oconto at 70, edges out Pepin at 69 and Langlade at 68, and trails Marquette and Marinette, both at 72. If price-to-entry is a primary concern, Langlade and Marinette offer meaningfully lower entry points, roughly $60,000 less than Vernon, and both score higher overall. An investor should choose Vernon over those alternatives only if the specific appreciation trajectory, the 9.26% YoY gain and 82 appreciation score, is the target metric and the investor is comfortable accepting the cash-flow gap. If the goal is a balanced score at lower basis, Marquette at $257,231 and a 72 overall score is the more efficient option in this peer group.
Price History
Median Home Price
Median Rent
Historical data from Zillow ZHVI/ZORI
Score Breakdown
Rent data not available for cash flow calculation.
Based on 9.3% YoY price growth. Moderate growth (3-8%) scores highest.
Population data not available.
Based on price relative to estimated local incomes.
Scores are calculated using real Zillow home value and rent data, Census population data, and economic indicators. The weighted average produces the overall investment score. Markets with missing rent data use estimated values based on regional averages.
Investment Outlook
Strengths
- +Strong price appreciation (+9.3% YoY)
- +Affordable relative to local incomes
Challenges
- -Negative leverage (cap rate 0.0% < mortgage rate 6.9%)
- -Limited rent data (estimates used)
Economic Indicators
Who this market fits
- +Appreciation buyers: YoY growth is meaningfully above the long-run average
- −You can't tolerate negative leverage (cap rate below mortgage rate today)
Compare to Nearby Counties
Section 8 in Vernon County: payment standards by ZIP, PHA waitlist status, and voucher counts are on VoucherMatch, the same HUD dataset with the tenant demand side attached.
The Bottom Line
Vernon County in Wisconsin scores 70/100, ranking #149 of 1,000 US counties (top 19%). At 20% down and current rates, a median-priced rental roughly breaks even on cash flow. The deal works on appreciation or with better terms, not on month-one cash flow.