Garland market analysis
Garland County sits at a gross rent-to-price ratio of 6.09%, which places it squarely in the middling range, not a cash-flow standout but meaningfully better than many appreciation-driven coastal or Sun Belt markets. The modeled cap rate comes in at 3.95%, and at a 6.85% financing rate, the levered math is punishing: the investment estimate shows negative $475 per month in cash flow and a cash-on-cash return of -10.17% on a conventional 20% down purchase at the median price of $243,734. Year-over-year home price growth of 0.51% offers essentially no appreciation cushion to compensate. The overall score of 60 out of 100, landing at the 52nd percentile nationally, captures this accurately: Garland is a middle-of-the-pack market that does nothing especially well at current financing rates.
The profile here does not suit a conventional leveraged buy-and-hold buyer unless they are buying well below median, negotiating creative financing, or bringing a significant cash component to reduce mortgage drag. The cash flow score of 61 and affordability index of 78 do suggest this market has better underlying rent-to-price dynamics than pure appreciation plays, and an all-cash or near-cash buyer would see the 3.95% cap rate in a more favorable light relative to higher-priced markets. A value-add operator who can lift rents above the median $1,236 per month has the most plausible path to returns here, given the relatively accessible median price of $243,734 and an affordability environment that supports tenant demand. The appreciation score of 55 and 0.51% annual price growth make this a poor fit for anyone banking on equity gains to carry the deal.
The tax and insurance picture is a genuine tailwind worth underwriting carefully. The state-average effective property tax rate is 0.62%, flagged as low, and combined with an insurance rate of 0.48%, the blended monthly tax and insurance carry is $223. That is materially below what an investor would face in high-tax states like Illinois or New Jersey, and it meaningfully reduces the non-mortgage expense load. The $433 in total estimated monthly expenses already reflects this, and any investor comparing Garland to markets in higher-tax states should give it credit. Bear in mind that 0.62% is a state-average estimate per Tax Foundation 2024 data, and actual county and township rates in Garland will differ, so pull the specific assessor data before closing.
Compared to its Arkansas neighbors, Garland occupies a different price tier entirely. Hempstead and Arkansas counties both sit near $122,000 to $124,000 at the median, and Izard County is around $170,000. Those markets carry the same overall score of 60 or 59, meaning a buyer can get comparable scoring at roughly half the price in some cases. At those lower price points, the same financing rate produces far less mortgage drag, and cash flow turns positive or at least defensible much faster. The one neighbor worth watching on the upside is Benton County, with a median price of $379,819 and a rent-to-price ratio of only 4.89%, well below Garland's 6.09%. Benton scores 59 overall despite being a much more expensive market, which implies the cash-flow math there is worse, not better.
The case for choosing Garland over its lower-priced neighbors comes down to scale and infrastructure. At 100,021 residents, Garland is the largest county in this comparison set, which typically means broader tenant demand, more transaction volume, and better liquidity when it comes time to sell. Investors who need a minimum asset size, want access to more rental inventory, or are targeting a specific asset class that simply does not exist in a county with a $122,000 median will find Garland more actionable. But investors who are purely optimizing for cash flow should look hard at Hempstead or Arkansas County first, and model whether the rent levels in those markets can support the same investment thesis at lower basis. Choose Garland when county size and market depth matter; choose the lower-priced neighbors when the math has to work at the median on day one.
Scenario comparison
| Scenario | Purchase price | Monthly cash flow | Cap rate | Cash-on-cash |
|---|---|---|---|---|
75% of median value-add or distressed | $182,800 | -$155/mo | 5.3% | -4.4% |
Median typical MLS deal | $243,734 | -$475/mo | 4.0% | -10.2% |
125% of median newer / premium | $304,667 | -$794/mo | 3.2% | -13.6% |
Price History
Median Home Price
Median Rent
Historical data from Zillow ZHVI/ZORI
Quick Investment Calculator
Purchase
Monthly Cash Flow
* Based on county median values. 35% expenses include taxes, insurance, maintenance, vacancy, and property management. Actual results vary by property.
Score Breakdown
Based on 6.09% rent-to-price ratio. Higher ratios indicate stronger cash flow potential.
Based on 0.5% YoY price growth. Moderate growth (3-8%) scores highest.
Population data not available.
Based on price relative to estimated local incomes.
Scores are calculated using real Zillow home value and rent data, Census population data, and economic indicators. The weighted average produces the overall investment score. Markets with missing rent data use estimated values based on regional averages.
Investment Outlook
Strengths
- +Affordable relative to local incomes
- +Complete rent data available
Challenges
- -Negative cash flow at typical financing (-$475/mo)
- -Negative leverage (cap rate 4.0% < mortgage rate 6.9%)
Economic Indicators
Who this market fits
- +All-cash buyers: removing debt service flips the cap rate to actual yield
- −You need positive cash flow on day one at typical leverage
- −You can't tolerate negative leverage (cap rate below mortgage rate today)
Compare to Nearby Counties
Section 8 in Garland County: payment standards by ZIP, PHA waitlist status, and voucher counts are on VoucherMatch, the same HUD dataset with the tenant demand side attached.
The Bottom Line
Garland County in Arkansas scores 60/100, ranking #375 of 1,000 US counties (top 48%). At 20% down and current rates, a median-priced rental loses about $475/month; the 6.09% gross rent-to-price ratio doesn't survive debt service. The thesis here is appreciation, value-add, house hacking, or all-cash.