Wayne market analysis
Wayne County sits at a 6.23% gross rent-to-price ratio, which places it in the middle ground between pure cash-flow market and pure appreciation play. At a median home price of $173,653 and median rent of $901, the raw yield looks attractive on paper, but the modeled underwrite tells a more complicated story: at 6.85% financing, the all-in monthly mortgage of $910 already exceeds gross rent before a single expense hits the ledger. Add $315 in estimated monthly expenses and the model spits out negative $324/month in cash flow and a cash-on-cash return of -9.73%. The cap rate of 4.05% is the more honest number to anchor to, and it tells you this market requires either significant equity compression, below-market acquisition, or value-add execution to pencil on a leveraged basis. The appreciation score of 90 out of 100 and a 6.48% year-over-year home price gain suggest the market has real price momentum, which partially explains why yields haven't compressed further: prices are moving faster than rents can keep up.
The investor this market suits best is someone running one of two playbooks. First, the appreciation buyer who is comfortable with mild negative carry in the near term and is betting that 6.48% annual price growth continues to build equity faster than the monthly drag erodes returns. With a median price of $173,653 and an affordability index of 93, entry points remain accessible relative to income, which historically sustains appreciation longer than markets where buyers are already stretched. Second, the value-add operator who can acquire below the $173,653 median, force appreciation through renovation, and refi into a better basis once rents and equity support it. The cash-flow score of 62 out of 100 reflects that market-rate acquisitions don't produce positive leverage at current rates, but off-market deals bought at a 15-20% discount to median could shift that materially. A pure cash-flow buyer who needs day-one positive returns from a conventional financed deal should look elsewhere in this data set.
The stability score of 50 out of 100 is the number that deserves the most attention in an underwrite. It sits exactly at the midpoint, signaling neither a tight, low-vacancy rental market nor a deteriorating one. A population of 66,522 is small enough that a single large employer contraction can move vacancy meaningfully. No economic anchor data was provided for Wayne County, so no specific employer analysis can be made here, but the population size alone is a flag worth pricing into your assumptions on vacancy and re-tenanting time when stress-testing the model.
On carry costs, the combined monthly tax and insurance burden of $164 is already baked into the $315 estimated expenses figure. Indiana's state-average effective property tax rate is 0.85%, which is flagged as normal, and at that level it doesn't represent an outsized drag the way a 1.5%+ rate would. That said, the note accompanying this data is worth keeping in mind: the 0.85% is a state-average estimate from Tax Foundation 2024 data, and actual county and township rates in Wayne can differ. Pull the county assessor's current levy before finalizing any underwrite. The insurance rate of 0.28% produces $486 annually, which is reasonable and not a meaningful source of underwriting risk on its own.
Comparing Wayne to its neighbors sharpens the value proposition. Howard County is the most direct apples-to-apples comparison: median price of $185,850 versus Wayne's $173,653, but Howard's rent of $1,005 against Wayne's $901 gives Howard a 6.49% gross yield versus Wayne's 6.23%. Both counties score identically at 72 overall, but Howard's rent-to-price ratio is marginally better, making it the sharper cash-flow option of the two if you're running close comparisons. Lagrange County at $322,425 and Whitley County at $272,520 are both significantly more expensive with the same 72 overall score, meaning you're paying a large price premium for equivalent overall quality. Orange County at $182,101 scores 73 overall, edging Wayne slightly, and at a close price point it warrants a direct rent comparison before choosing between them. Jefferson County at $231,468 scores 71, trails Wayne, and costs more. The case for choosing Wayne over most of these neighbors comes down to entry price: at $173,653, Wayne is the cheapest median in this peer group, and if the appreciation trajectory holds, the equity upside on a lower basis compounds faster. Choose Wayne if your thesis is price entry and appreciation; choose Howard if you need the extra rent yield to get closer to breakeven on leverage.
Scenario comparison
| Scenario | Purchase price | Monthly cash flow | Cap rate | Cash-on-cash |
|---|---|---|---|---|
75% of median value-add or distressed | $130,240 | -$96/mo | 5.4% | -3.9% |
Median typical MLS deal | $173,653 | -$324/mo | 4.0% | -9.7% |
125% of median newer / premium | $217,067 | -$552/mo | 3.2% | -13.3% |
Price History
Median Home Price
Median Rent
Historical data from Zillow ZHVI/ZORI
Quick Investment Calculator
Purchase
Monthly Cash Flow
* Based on county median values. 35% expenses include taxes, insurance, maintenance, vacancy, and property management. Actual results vary by property.
Score Breakdown
Based on 6.23% rent-to-price ratio. Higher ratios indicate stronger cash flow potential.
Based on 6.5% YoY price growth. Moderate growth (3-8%) scores highest.
Population data not available.
Based on price relative to estimated local incomes.
Scores are calculated using real Zillow home value and rent data, Census population data, and economic indicators. The weighted average produces the overall investment score. Markets with missing rent data use estimated values based on regional averages.
Investment Outlook
Strengths
- +Strong price appreciation (+6.5% YoY)
- +Affordable relative to local incomes
- +Complete rent data available
Challenges
- -Negative cash flow at typical financing (-$324/mo)
- -Negative leverage (cap rate 4.0% < mortgage rate 6.9%)
Economic Indicators
Who this market fits
- +Appreciation buyers: YoY growth is meaningfully above the long-run average
- +Patient holders willing to accept negative carry for equity gains
- +All-cash buyers: removing debt service flips the cap rate to actual yield
- +Institutional or out-of-state investors who target appreciation markets
- −You need positive cash flow on day one at typical leverage
- −You can't tolerate negative leverage (cap rate below mortgage rate today)
Compare to Nearby Counties
Section 8 in Wayne County: payment standards by ZIP, PHA waitlist status, and voucher counts are on VoucherMatch, the same HUD dataset with the tenant demand side attached.
The Bottom Line
Wayne County in Indiana scores 72/100, ranking #113 of 1,000 US counties (top 14%). At 20% down and current rates, a median-priced rental loses about $324/month; the 6.23% gross rent-to-price ratio doesn't survive debt service. The thesis here is appreciation, value-add, house hacking, or all-cash.