Carbon County

Carbon County sits at a median home price of $522,510, up 4.46% year-over-year, against an affordability index of just 25 out of 100. The cash flow score is 0 and the cap rate field returns zero, which tells you directly that at current prices this market does not pencil as a yield play. With a population of 10,645, Carbon is a small, thinly traded market sitting at the 39th national percentile across the 1,000-county dataset, ranking 29th out of 56 Montana counties. The price-to-rent relationship here is not favorable for income investors: the median price is more than double what you see in most Montana neighbors, but rental income has not scaled proportionally. This is, by the numbers, an appreciation market, and the score of 84 on that dimension confirms it.

The investor this market suits is someone buying for long-term price appreciation in a supply-constrained rural Montana setting, not someone building a cash-flowing portfolio. That 84 appreciation score is the highest single metric in the dataset for Carbon, and the 4.46% annual price gain on a $522,510 median represents roughly $23,300 in unrealized equity per year if that pace holds. A cash-flow buyer will find the math unattractive at any conventional leverage level given the $104,502 required down payment and a 6.85% rate on the remaining balance, with a cap rate that rounds to zero. A value-add operator might find opportunity if they can reposition a property into a short-term or vacation rental, which the rural Montana setting could support, but nothing in the provided data confirms short-term rental demand or regulatory permissiveness, so that thesis requires separate diligence. The affordability score of 25 signals that the buyer pool for resale will be narrow, which cuts both ways: it limits your exit options but also limits new supply competition.

No economic anchor data was provided for Carbon County, so employer-specific demand drivers cannot be assessed here. What the demographic and size data does imply is that with a population under 11,000 the rental pool is thin. Vacancy risk in a market this small is idiosyncratic rather than cyclical: losing one or two tenants can materially affect your return in ways that aggregate statistics will not capture. Underwriting tenant quality and lease stability deserves extra weight in a county of this size.

On carry costs, the combined monthly tax and insurance burden is $527, based on Montana's state-average effective property tax rate of 0.83% and an insurance rate of 0.38%. That figure is worth noting as a fixed line item: on a property at this price point, tax and insurance alone consume $527 per month before any mortgage payment, maintenance reserve, or management fee. The 0.83% rate carries a "normal" flag, so it is not an exceptional drag by national standards, but at a $522,510 purchase price it still produces $4,337 in annual property tax. The provided note is worth repeating: this is a state-average estimate from Tax Foundation 2024, and the actual county or township rate in Carbon may differ, so confirm the local mill levy before you close.

The primary risks here are concentration and liquidity. A population of 10,645 means the rental market is thin enough that a single large employer contraction, a demographic shift, or a bad winter for tourism or agriculture can move vacancy meaningfully. There is no diversification buffer the way there is in a metro. Price appreciation at this level also creates a reflexive risk: the same supply constraints and lifestyle-buyer demand that drove prices to $522,510 can reverse if remote-work migration slows or if interest rates keep the discretionary buyer on the sideline longer than expected. The affordability score of 25 suggests that dynamic is already in play.

Compared to the five neighboring counties in the dataset, Carbon is the highest-priced market by a wide margin. Custer County median is $230,529, Richland is $266,438, Cascade is $331,268, Treasure is $202,948, and Carter is $180,468. Cascade County is the only neighbor with rent data provided, showing a median rent of $1,334.74 and a rent-to-price ratio of 0.0484, which is meaningfully better than what Carbon's zero cap rate implies. All five neighbors score within two points of Carbon on the overall index (55-57 vs. Carbon's 56), so there is no clear overall quality gap, but the price gap is enormous. An investor prioritizing yield and a lower entry cost would find Custer, Treasure, or Carter far more tractable for cash flow. Carbon makes sense over these neighbors only if you have a specific thesis around Montana lifestyle appreciation, are comfortable with a long hold, and do not need the property to carry itself on rental income during that hold.