Garfield County

Garfield County, Nebraska sits at a median home price of $216,769 with a 6.31% year-over-year appreciation rate, which is the dominant story here. The cash flow score is effectively zero, meaning this market is not generating meaningful monthly income after carrying costs, but the appreciation score of 90 out of 100 tells you exactly where the return thesis lives. At a population of 1,833, you are looking at a thin rental pool, which is consistent with the absent cap rate and cash-on-cash figures: there simply is not enough rental market depth to produce reliable cash flow underwriting from the available data. The affordability index of 80 and a median household income of $64,957 suggest local buyers can still absorb price increases without being priced out, which is what sustains appreciation momentum in small markets like this.

This market suits one profile almost exclusively: a patient appreciation buyer who has a long hold horizon and is not dependent on the property to service itself month-to-month. The 6.31% price appreciation on a $216,769 asset represents roughly $13,700 in unrealized annual gain, which is where the return is coming from, not rent collection. A cash-flow buyer should look elsewhere. A value-add operator will face the same structural constraint: population of 1,833 gives you almost no tenant pool to cycle through, and repositioning a property does not create demand where the demand base is thin. If you are an appreciation buyer who can carry the asset and is comfortable with illiquidity, the 90/100 appreciation score and a national percentile rank of 93rd out of 1,000 counties make a credible case for inclusion in a diversified portfolio.

The tax and insurance picture deserves serious attention before you finalize any underwrite. Nebraska's state-average effective property tax rate is 1.73%, which the Tax Foundation flags as high, and the data confirms that as a real underwriting consideration: at 1.73%, this rate needs its own line on your model, not a rounding assumption. On a $216,769 purchase, that produces $3,750 in annual property taxes. Add $1,257 in annual insurance (0.58% of value, which is reasonable for Nebraska given hail and wind exposure), and you are carrying $417 per month in tax and insurance before you touch mortgage, maintenance, or management. With a 20% down payment of $43,354 and a 6.85% interest rate, the all-in monthly carry on this asset is material. For an appreciation play where rental income is thin or zero, that $417 monthly figure, recurring and non-negotiable, is the cost of holding the position. Actual county and township rates in Garfield County may differ from the state average used here, so pull the assessor's data before closing.

On risk, concentration is the central issue. A county of 1,833 people has essentially no economic redundancy. A single employer exit, a drought cycle, or a demographic shift accelerates population loss faster than in larger markets, and with fewer buyers in the pool, price discovery on the way out can be slow and painful. The stability score of 50 out of 100 is the model's acknowledgment of exactly this dynamic. This is not a market where you can count on a 60-day exit if you need liquidity. You are accepting binary risk: the appreciation trend either continues, driven by whatever is pulling prices up 6.31% annually, or it stalls, and you are sitting on an illiquid asset with $417 per month in fixed carry and a thin resale market.

Compared to the neighboring counties in the dataset, Garfield's $216,769 median price sits in the middle of the range. Cheyenne County at $163,907 is the cheapest entry point and carries the same overall score of 75, which may appeal to a buyer who wants to minimize capital at risk in a small-market play. Colfax County at $228,344 and Merrick County at $222,728 are close comps on price with identical or near-identical overall scores, offering little differentiation. Hamilton County at $291,495 is the most expensive neighbor at a score of 74, slightly below Garfield. Wayne County at $240,704 matches Garfield's overall score of 75 at a higher price point. The case for choosing Garfield over its neighbors comes down to its appreciation score, which at 90 is the distinguishing variable the dataset surfaces. If that number reflects genuine and continuing price momentum rather than a one-year anomaly, Garfield earns its place. If you are skeptical of that momentum holding in a sub-2,000 population county, Cheyenne County's lower entry price reduces your carry burden while landing you in a comparable overall score tier.