Surry County

Surry County posts a gross rent-to-price ratio of 6.06% and a cap rate of 3.94%, which tells you most of what you need to know about the cash-flow picture before you run a single spreadsheet. At a $241,900 purchase price, 20% down, and a 6.85% rate, the modeled monthly mortgage is $1,268 against $1,222.50 in median rent, meaning the rent doesn't even cover the debt service before you add a dollar of expenses. Fold in the $428 in estimated monthly expenses and the model produces negative $474 in monthly cash flow and a cash-on-cash return of -10.22%. That's not a rounding error; it's the arithmetic reality of buying in a market where prices have appreciated 4.72% year-over-year and the income side hasn't kept pace. Surry sits firmly on the appreciation end of the spectrum, not the cash-flow end, and anyone underwriting it as a day-one cash-flow play is going to be disappointed.

The investor this market suits is an appreciation buyer who can absorb negative carry in the near term or who has access to below-market financing and a purchase price meaningfully below the median. The 85 appreciation score and 4.72% annual price growth are the headline arguments for that thesis. The affordability index of 78 and a median price just under $242,000 mean entry is still accessible compared to much of North Carolina, which limits downside if you need to exit. A value-add operator who can buy distressed below $200,000, force appreciation through renovation, and push rents above the $1,222.50 median has a more credible path to acceptable returns than a turnkey buyer at current prices. The cash-flow score of 61 and the stability score of 50 are worth taking seriously: the stability number in particular suggests the investor should not assume smooth sailing on occupancy or rent growth.

The monthly tax and insurance burden on a median-priced Surry County property is modeled at $226, already baked into the $428 in estimated monthly expenses. The state-average effective property tax rate used here is 0.84%, which sits in normal territory, so it's not a headline risk, but keep in mind this is a state-average estimate and your actual county or township rate may differ. The insurance component at 0.28% is modest. Neither figure is the source of this market's cash-flow problem; the math breaks down at the interest-rate and rent-level intersection, not on the carry-cost side.

The risks worth flagging are concentration and demographic. A population of 71,429 in a rural North Carolina county means the rental demand pool is limited and not self-replenishing the way a metro is. A stability score of 50 out of 100 is the model's quantitative expression of that concern. Smaller labor markets are more exposed to single-employer shifts, and thin rental demand makes vacancy events more expensive to recover from. There's no vacancy rate data provided here, but the stability score alone warrants conservative vacancy assumptions in your underwrite, not the optimistic ones often used for metros.

Comparing Surry to its neighbors sharpens the picture. Cumberland County is the most cash-flow-oriented alternative in the peer group, with a rent-to-price ratio of 7.50% against a $227,591 median, lower entry than Surry, and rent of $1,421.66, producing a better income-to-price relationship. Davidson County sits at a 6.57% ratio on a $264,061 median with rent of $1,445.94, a modestly better carry picture than Surry with a larger, more diversified economy given its proximity to the Piedmont. Cherokee County's 7.11% ratio on $274,117 is also richer on income yield, though the higher entry price and mountain-market dynamics carry their own demand considerations. Gaston County, at $291,814 and a 6.80% ratio, is the highest-priced peer with a similar yield profile and a better score than most would expect. Surry's case over these neighbors rests on its appreciation score of 85, which is the highest implied growth signal in the group, and its lower price point. If your thesis is price growth and you're willing to carry the negative cash flow, Surry is defensible. If you need income today, Cumberland at 7.50% and Davidson at 6.57% both deliver better day-one economics.