Noble County
Market Snapshot
Noble market analysis
Noble County sits at a median home price of $161,822 with median rent of $1,125, producing a rent-to-price ratio of 0.0834, or roughly 83 cents of monthly rent per $100 of purchase price. That puts it squarely in cash-flow-friendly territory by national standards, and the 5.42% cap rate confirms the income yield is real. Year-over-year home price growth of 3.33% is meaningful for a county at this price point, which is why the appreciation score lands at 81 out of 100 alongside the cash-flow score of 83. The tension in the numbers, though, is the model underwrite: at a 6.85% interest rate with 20% down, the estimated monthly cash flow comes in at negative $117, with a cash-on-cash return of negative 3.77%. The cap rate clears the cost of debt on its own, but leveraged returns go negative once mortgage service enters the picture. That's a financing-conditions problem more than a market problem, and it's worth holding that distinction clearly in mind.
The investor this market suits best is someone who can reduce their financing drag, whether through a larger down payment, seller financing, or an all-cash purchase at scale. At the 5.42% cap rate, an all-cash buyer is generating acceptable yield on a $161,822 asset with real appreciation upside at 3.33% annually. A value-add operator who can acquire slightly below median, push rent modestly above the $1,125 baseline, or reduce vacancy through active management has a credible path to positive leveraged cash flow without needing heroic assumptions. The affordability index of 95 out of 100 and median price under $165,000 mean entry barriers are low and the renter pool is likely drawn from households for whom ownership is genuinely out of reach, a structural support for demand. Noble ranks 30th nationally out of 1,000 counties in the model's overall ranking, placing it in the 96th percentile, and third in Oklahoma out of 77 counties scored.
The stability score of 50 is the outlier in an otherwise well-rounded scorecard and deserves honest scrutiny. With a county population of just 10,981, Noble is a small market. Small markets can deliver outsized yields precisely because institutional capital ignores them, but they also concentrate risk: a single large employer reducing headcount, a shift in local agricultural or energy conditions, or even modest net out-migration can move vacancy and rent levels in ways that larger metros absorb more easily. There is no economic anchor data provided for Noble County, so no specific employer or sector claims can be made here. Investors should independently verify the local employment base before committing capital.
On carry costs, the combined monthly tax and insurance figure is $218, built from a state-average property tax rate of 0.90% and an insurance rate of 0.72%. Oklahoma's wind and hail exposure makes the 0.72% insurance load a realistic, and in some cases optimistic, assumption depending on the specific property and insurer. The 0.90% tax rate is flagged as normal, meaning it neither compresses returns as a notable headwind nor provides a meaningful tailwind. That said, the note from the source data applies directly here: this is a state-average effective rate from Tax Foundation 2024, and actual Noble County or township rates may differ. Pull the county assessor's figures on any specific property before finalizing your underwrite. The $218 monthly combined figure is already embedded in the $394 estimated expenses line, so double-check that you're not layering it in twice if you're building your own model.
Compared to the neighboring counties in the dataset, Noble holds its own on price and yield. Comanche County comes in at a nearly identical rent-to-price ratio of 0.0837 versus Noble's 0.0834, with a median price of $150,944, meaning Comanche offers marginally cheaper entry with comparable yield math and an overall score of 76 versus Noble's 77. Woodward County is cheaper still at $133,590 but carries the same overall score of 77 with no rent data provided, making direct yield comparison impossible. Texas County is priced almost identically to Noble at $162,139 but scores lower at 76. Pawnee County at $170,901 and McIntosh County at $195,367 both score below Noble, at 74 and 73 respectively, while costing more, which weakens their relative value proposition for a cash-flow-first buyer. Noble is the right choice over these neighbors when you want the combination of sub-$165,000 entry, a confirmed rent-to-price ratio above 0.083, and the third-ranked position in Oklahoma, provided you've done the legwork on local employment stability that the stability score of 50 flags as the open question.
Scenario comparison
| Scenario | Purchase price | Monthly cash flow | Cap rate | Cash-on-cash |
|---|---|---|---|---|
75% of median value-add or distressed | $121,367 | +$95/mo | 7.2% | +4.1% |
Median typical MLS deal | $161,822 | -$117/mo | 5.4% | -3.8% |
125% of median newer / premium | $202,278 | -$329/mo | 4.3% | -8.5% |
Price History
Median Home Price
Median Rent
Historical data from Zillow ZHVI/ZORI
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Purchase
Monthly Cash Flow
* Based on county median values. 35% expenses include taxes, insurance, maintenance, vacancy, and property management. Actual results vary by property.
Score Breakdown
Based on 8.34% rent-to-price ratio. Higher ratios indicate stronger cash flow potential.
Based on 3.3% YoY price growth. Moderate growth (3-8%) scores highest.
Population data not available.
Based on price relative to estimated local incomes.
Scores are calculated using real Zillow home value and rent data, Census population data, and economic indicators. The weighted average produces the overall investment score. Markets with missing rent data use estimated values based on regional averages.
Investment Outlook
Strengths
- +Above-average rent-to-price ratio (8.34%)
- +Affordable relative to local incomes
- +Complete rent data available
Challenges
- -Negative leverage (cap rate 5.4% < mortgage rate 6.9%)
Economic Indicators
Who this market fits
- +All-cash buyers: removing debt service flips the cap rate to actual yield
- +Value-add operators who can buy below median and force rent up
- +Institutional or out-of-state investors who target appreciation markets
- −You need positive cash flow on day one at typical leverage
- −You can't tolerate negative leverage (cap rate below mortgage rate today)
Compare to Nearby Counties
The Bottom Line
Noble County in Oklahoma scores 77/100, ranking #30 of 1,000 US counties (top 4%). At 20% down and current rates, a median-priced rental loses about $117/month; the 8.34% gross rent-to-price ratio doesn't survive debt service. The thesis here is appreciation, value-add, house hacking, or all-cash.
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Head-to-head comparisons
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Frequently asked questions
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