Frio County

Frio County sits at a median home price of $173,743, up 3.87% year-over-year, with an affordability index of 93 out of 100. That combination puts it squarely on the appreciation side of the spectrum. The cash flow score is listed at zero and cap rate data is absent from the provided figures, which tells you something meaningful: at these price points with Texas carrying costs, the numbers likely don't pencil for a pure cash flow buyer without significant value-add work or below-market acquisition. What the market does offer is an entry price well below the Texas median, a 95th-percentile national ranking out of 1,000 counties scored, and a 9th-place finish among 243 Texas counties, suggesting the appreciation thesis here is real and recognized.

The appreciation score of 83 and the price-to-rent dynamic implied by zero cash flow score means this market is built for a patient, equity-oriented buyer rather than someone running a cash flow model on day one. If you're buying at $173,743 with 20% down ($34,749) at 6.85%, your mortgage alone is a meaningful hurdle before you layer in taxes and insurance. The investor who fits here is either targeting long-term equity capture as home prices continue their 3.87% annual climb, or an operator who can acquire below list price and manufacture equity through renovation. A straight buy-and-hold at full ask with conventional financing is unlikely to produce positive monthly cash flow based on the data available, and anyone underwriting this market should model for modest appreciation gains rather than near-term income.

Frio County's economic anchors and stability score deserve honest treatment. The stability score is 50 out of 100, which is the most cautious number in the profile. No specific employer data was provided, so employment concentration and job base durability can't be assessed from this data set. What is visible is a population of 18,151, which means you're underwriting a small market with limited tenant pool depth. Small-county Texas markets can perform well when a dominant employer or regional institution anchors demand, but the absence of that data here is itself a signal to dig deeper before committing. Thin population also means vacancy can hit harder and linger longer than it would in a 100,000-person metro.

The tax and insurance carry is a real line item here. At Texas's state-average effective property tax rate of 1.80%, flagged as high, Frio's $173,743 median home generates an estimated $3,127 in annual property taxes and $869 in annual insurance, putting monthly tax and insurance at $333. At 1.80%, this rate deserves its own line on your underwrite, because it compresses whatever gross rent you're collecting at a meaningful clip. That said, the note from the data source is worth taking literally: this is a state-average estimate from Tax Foundation 2024 data, and actual county and township rates in Frio can differ, sometimes materially. Pull the county assessor's rate before finalizing any model.

The risk picture is shaped primarily by the small population base and that middling stability score. A county of 18,151 people offers limited tenant diversification, meaning demand for rentals depends heavily on whoever the local economic engine is. If that engine stutters, vacancy doesn't just tick up a point or two, it can move sharply. There is no vacancy or crime data provided here, so those dimensions can't be quantified, but the population size alone warrants conservative assumptions in your vacancy and credit loss inputs.

Compared to its neighbors in the data, Frio's $173,743 median price is higher than Cottle County ($65,066) and Stonewall County ($91,350), but meaningfully cheaper than Andrews County ($244,485) and Callahan County ($220,841). Its overall score of 76 is roughly in line with Andrews and Callahan, both at 75, but Stonewall scores 82 on a much lower price base, making Stonewall the more interesting value play if cash flow is the priority. Wichita County, the one neighbor with rent data, shows a gross rent-to-price ratio of 0.0867, which is a reasonably healthy cash flow signal at its $163,787 median, and its $163,787 entry point is actually cheaper than Frio's. If an investor is choosing between Frio and Wichita County specifically, Wichita's combination of lower price, visible rent data, and larger population base likely edges out Frio for a cash-flow-first underwrite. Choose Frio over its neighbors when the specific thesis is appreciation capture at a still-affordable entry point with a top-decile national ranking behind the selection.