Emery County

Emery County's median home price of $301,867 and a 7.82% year-over-year appreciation rate tell the first part of the story: this is a market moving up fast for its size. The appreciation score of 94 out of 100 confirms the trend is not a rounding error. What's conspicuously absent from the data is any cash flow score above zero, which is a signal worth sitting with before underwriting a single deal. The model could not generate a positive cap rate or cash-on-cash return at current prices and financing costs, with a 6.85% interest rate on a $301,867 purchase requiring $60,373 down. That zero cash flow score does not mean every deal is impossible, but it does mean the margin for error on rent assumptions and expense estimates is thin enough that a careless underwrite will bleed money. Emery sits at the 86th national percentile overall and ranks first in Utah out of 28 counties scored, which reflects how well it performs on appreciation and affordability relative to peers, not how easily an investor can generate monthly income here.

This market is built for the appreciation buyer, not the cash flow buyer. An investor who needs their rental to service debt and produce a check each month should look elsewhere, full stop. The 7.82% annual price gain on a $301,867 asset is roughly $23,600 in equity in one year, and if that pace holds, a leveraged position compounds the return on the $60,373 down payment significantly. The affordability index of 65 suggests the market is not yet priced out of reach for the local workforce, which is a meaningful stabilizer: if homes remain reachable for owner-occupants, demand for rentals does not collapse the moment interest rates move. A value-add operator could make the math work if they can buy below median, add square footage or a unit, and force appreciation on top of the organic price growth, but the baseline deal at $301,867 is not generating cash flow without creative structuring.

No economic anchor data was provided for Emery County, so employment concentration and major employer analysis cannot be done responsibly here. What the population figure of 9,898 does make clear is that this is a small, rural market. Thin population creates thin rental demand, which is likely the primary driver of the zero cash flow score: there simply may not be enough tenant depth to push rents high enough to clear the mortgage at current prices. An investor should do local rental comp research aggressively before closing, because national or state rent averages will not reflect what a landlord can actually collect in Castle Dale or Ferron.

On the carry cost side, Emery County is a genuine tailwind. The state-average effective property tax rate of 0.63% is low, and when combined with an insurance rate of 0.19%, the combined monthly tax and insurance burden comes to $206 on this purchase. To put that in context: on a $301,867 home, many markets with "high" or "very high" tax flags would add $400 to $700 per month in tax and insurance alone. Here, the $206 figure meaningfully reduces the monthly break-even rent needed to cover total carrying costs. The standard caveat applies: 0.63% is a state-average estimate from Tax Foundation 2024, and actual county and township assessments in Emery can differ, so pull the county assessor's current rate for any specific parcel before finalizing numbers.

The risks in a market this small are concentration risk first and liquidity risk second. With under 10,000 residents, a single employer layoff, a mine closure, or a sustained population outflow can move vacancy rates materially with no counterbalancing demand to absorb it. There are no vacancy or crime figures in the provided data, but any investor should treat the population size as a flashing yellow light on diversification. Exiting a rental in a thin market during a downturn is slower and more expensive than exiting in a metro, so the appreciation story only pays out if the investor can hold long enough to sell into a favorable cycle.

Against its neighbors, Emery's value case is clear. At a $301,867 median, it is cheaper than Millard ($334,525), Juab ($442,422), and Duchesne ($370,278), while carrying a higher overall score than all five neighbors listed. Carbon County is cheaper at $270,914, but scores a 67 versus Emery's 72, making Emery the better-scoring buy at a modest price premium. Beaver County is close in both price ($293,832) and score (71), so the choice between those two comes down to local economic research and specific deal availability. Choose Emery over its neighbors when the thesis is appreciation-driven, the investor can tolerate thin cash flow, and the acquisition price is at or below the current median. If cash flow is the mandate, none of these five neighbors solve the problem materially, but Carbon County's lower price point gives an operator the most runway to make the numbers work.