San Juan County

San Juan County sits at a median home price of $887,832, making it one of the most expensive entry points in Washington state. The cash flow score is 0, the cap rate is 0, and the cash-on-cash return is 0, which is not a data gap but a statement about this market: at this price level, rental income does not service the debt. The overall score of 35 places San Juan in the 2nd percentile nationally out of 1,000 counties ranked, and 32nd out of 39 in Washington. The appreciation score of 48 and stability score of 50 are the only metrics that register, and even those are middling. Home prices are essentially flat, down 0.5% year over year. The affordability index of 5 out of 100 confirms what the raw numbers already show: this is one of the least affordable counties in the country for a buyer who needs the asset to generate income from day one.

There is exactly one investor profile this market serves: someone who can carry a property without cash flow and is betting on long-run appreciation driven by scarcity and lifestyle demand. San Juan County is a remote island archipelago with constrained land supply, ferry-dependent access, and a population of 18,001. That geographic constraint is the entire thesis. With a $177,566 down payment at 6.85% on an $887,832 purchase, the mortgage alone will be substantial, and the property will run at a negative carry for any investor who does not own it outright or near-outright. Cash flow buyers should stop reading here. Value-add operators face the same math: you are compressing a negative cap rate further while you renovate, with no yield to offset the drag. This county is a wealth-preservation or second-home-adjacent play, not an income property market.

The taxInsurance data adds an important line to the underwrite. At a state-average effective property tax rate of 0.98%, which is within normal range and carries the caveat that actual county and township rates will differ, combined with an insurance rate of 0.21%, monthly tax and insurance total $880. On a property generating no modeled cash flow, that $880 per month is pure negative carry before mortgage, maintenance, or vacancy. Washington's 0.98% rate is not a special penalty here, but at an $887,832 purchase price the absolute dollar burden is high because the price base is high. Any investor building a pro forma should treat that $880 as a floor, not an estimate subject to optimism.

The specific risk concentration here is severe. An 18,001-person county on islands accessible primarily by ferry is about as single-variable a market as you will find in the U.S. Demand is driven by a narrow slice of buyers and renters: remote workers who prize isolation, retirees, seasonal visitors, and second-home owners. If any of those demand drivers soften, whether through remote work policy changes, demographic shifts, or changes in ferry service economics, there is no industrial base, no large employer anchor, and no institutional rental demand to absorb the slack. The population base is too small to support diversified rental demand. Vacancy risk is real even if no specific vacancy figure is provided here, because the renter pool is thin by definition.

Compared to the five neighboring counties in the data, San Juan County is the most expensive and scores the lowest. Island County at $623,534 median carries a rent-to-price ratio of 0.0388 and an overall score of 39. Whatcom County at $600,648 runs a ratio of 0.0403 and scores 40. Chelan County at $526,792 scores 40 with a ratio of 0.0398. Even King County at $841,149, despite its own affordability challenges, has a modeled rent-to-price ratio of 0.0323 and scores 34 overall, which edges out San Juan. The pattern is consistent: every neighboring market offers better income metrics at lower entry prices. The only reason to choose San Juan over any of them is a conviction that island scarcity will drive appreciation that the numbers do not yet support, given the 0.5% annual price decline. An investor who wants Pacific Northwest exposure with any cash flow potential should look at Island, Whatcom, or Chelan before committing capital here.