Lincoln County

Lincoln County, Wisconsin sits at a 2.65% cap rate with a gross rent-to-price ratio of 0.41%, or about $826/month in rent against a $243,337 median purchase price. Those numbers place it firmly in appreciation territory, not cash-flow territory. At a 6.85% mortgage rate with 20% down, the model produces a negative $738/month in cash flow and a cash-on-cash return of -15.82%. The appreciation score of 87 out of 100, combined with 5.44% year-over-year price growth, tells you where the market's actual return thesis lives. This is not a market where the rent check carries the deal.

The investor this market suits is someone underwriting for long-term price appreciation and willing to feed the asset monthly while it appreciates. The 87 appreciation score is the highest figure on the scorecard and 5.44% annual price growth on a $243,337 median base generates roughly $13,200 in equity per year before any debt paydown, which is the only math that makes the -$738/month carry palatable. A cash-flow buyer looking to print positive returns from day one at current financing rates has no business here; the cash-flow score of 31 out of 100 reflects that clearly. A value-add operator faces the same structural problem: even if you manufacture additional rent through renovation, closing the gap from $827 to a rent level that covers a $1,276 mortgage plus $289 in monthly expenses is a tall order in a county with a population of 28,402 and an affordability index of 78, which suggests there is a ceiling on how aggressively rents can be pushed before you exceed what local tenants can support.

No economic anchors or employer data were provided for Lincoln County, so the underlying driver of rental demand, whether manufacturing, healthcare, government, or a university, cannot be assessed from the available data. That is itself an underwriting flag worth researching independently before committing capital. Small northern Wisconsin counties at 28,402 residents can be sensitive to single-employer concentration, and without knowing what anchors the local labor market, estimating rental demand durability is speculative.

Carry costs deserve real attention here. The combined monthly tax and insurance load is $422, which represents a meaningful share of the $826 median rent. Wisconsin's state-average effective property tax rate is 1.85%, which is high enough to deserve its own line on your underwrite, and the data explicitly flags it as such. At that rate, annual property taxes alone on the median purchase price run $4,502. Bear in mind this is a state-average estimate using Tax Foundation 2024 data, and actual Lincoln County or township-level rates may differ, in either direction. Add $560 in annual insurance at the 0.23% rate and you are looking at $5,062 in combined fixed costs before you pay a dollar on the mortgage. For a market where rents are already underwater relative to debt service, this is not a trivial line item.

The stability score of 50 and a national percentile ranking of 49th out of 1,000 counties suggests Lincoln is a median performer nationally, neither distressed nor exceptional. State rank is 44th out of 72 Wisconsin counties, meaning roughly a third of the state's counties score higher on the composite. The population of 28,402 introduces concentration and liquidity risk that larger metro counties do not carry to the same degree: when you need to exit, your buyer pool is thinner, and if a major employer contracts, rental demand does not have depth to absorb it.

Among the five neighboring counties in the data, Lincoln has the lowest median home price at $243,337, which is notable, but it also has the lowest median rent at $827 and the lowest rent-to-price ratio at 0.4077%. Every neighbor with rent data beats Lincoln on rent-to-price: Portage County at 0.4653%, Fond du Lac at 0.4412%, Dodge at 0.4545%, and Walworth at 0.5585%. Walworth County, at a 0.5585% ratio and $1,815/month in median rent, is in a different category entirely if cash flow is part of the thesis. Dodge County carries a higher overall score of 60 and a better rent-to-price ratio on a similarly accessible price point at $303,855. If you are an appreciation buyer who simply wants northern Wisconsin exposure at the lowest entry price, Lincoln's $243,337 median is the cheapest door in the comparison set. But if you can tolerate a modestly higher purchase price in Portage or Dodge, you get meaningfully better rent coverage and a less negative carry, which matters considerably when you are writing a check every month to keep the lights on.