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Ohio cap evidence: what can actually be compared
Ohio does not have one defensible statewide apartment cap rate in this evidence set. Lee’s Q2 2026 market table reports Columbus at 6.7%, Cincinnati at 7.6% and Cleveland at 9.1%; Matthews reports a separate Cleveland series at 8.01%. The disagreement matters: these are different publisher measures with incomplete cap methodology, not interchangeable sale comparables.
“supply-side pressure should ease materially”
MMG · Cincinnati Q2 2026. MMG’s conditional outlook as remaining projects deliver through late 2026 and 2027; a publisher forecast, not an observed disappearance of vacancy.
A capitalization rate is annual net operating income divided by property price, before debt. A published cap metric helps select comparables; it cannot establish the subject property’s income or condition.
Dated evidence, not a statewide average
Original display. The numeric scale starts at zero and ends at 10%. Historical, asking and transaction observations retain their labels; missing data is not zero.
| Geography / asset | Period | Reported cap | Basis and limits |
|---|---|---|---|
| Columbus · Lee market series | Q2 2026 | 6.7% | Published market cap metric. Closed-sale mean, cap sample and NOI convention not established. |
| Cincinnati · Lee market table | Q2 2026 | 7.6% | Published market cap metric. National table rounded to one decimal; local report differs in snapshot and precision. |
| Cleveland · Lee market series | Q2 2026 | 9.1% | Published market cap metric. Not interchangeable with Matthews; no local class or neighborhood allocation. |
| Cleveland · Matthews series | Q2 2026 | 8.01% | Separately published cap series. Underlying cap count, weighting and NOI convention not disclosed. |
| Dayton, Toledo, Akron and rural counties | October 2026 review | Current cap not verified | Coverage gap. Major-metro figures do not establish these local yields. |
The Lee rows share a publisher and reporting quarter, making them a useful initial comparison; incomplete cohort definitions still prevent a precise risk ranking. Matthews’ Cleveland figure is a separate observation, not a correction to Lee or a number to average with it. Lee’s local Cincinnati table reports 7.61% against 7.57% in Q1 and 7.61% a year earlier: roughly +4 basis points quarterly and flat annually. Its national table is rounded and uses a somewhat different snapshot. Do not splice them into one trend.
One percentage point = 100 basis points. Multiple publishers sharing a dataset do not create independent confirmation. Asking caps, reported-sale medians, averages and modeled county indexes must remain distinct.
The local decisions behind the cap rate
| Market / measure | Period | Value | Boundary |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cleveland · Matthews vacancy | Q2 2026 | 3.68% | Different inventory definition from Lee’s 10.3%; not reconciled. |
| South Cleveland / Strongsville–Medina vacancy | Q2 2026 | 2.3% / 2.2% | Submarket operating readings, not submarket cap rates. |
| Columbus · Colliers occupancy | Q2 2026 | 95.5% | Report operating universe; not subject economic occupancy. |
| Columbus · new post-2016 vintage vacancy | Q2 2026 | 17.0% | Vintage cohort; cannot replace overall vacancy. |
| Cincinnati · MMG trailing absorption / completions | Q2 2026 | 1,324 / 4,078 units | Trailing four quarters; pipeline decline is not completed absorption. |
| Cincinnati · local Lee vacancy | Q2 2026 | 9.02% | Local report snapshot differs from rounded national table. |
Cleveland: better leasing has not erased the buyer’s yield requirement
Observed evidence and boundary. Matthews reports a small annual rise in its cap series even as vacancy tightened. Its local vacancy readings are far below Lee’s broader published market reading.
A building’s underwriting cannot resolve that gap by selecting the more favorable figure. Identify whether each comparable includes lease-up inventory, similar vintages and the same geography; then test the subject’s collected income. Thin transaction volume can delay a pricing response to better operations.
Direction. Editorial interpretation: tighter leasing supports an income case, but does not prove compression. Use a property-specific collection-loss allowance and comparable sale NOI instead of lowering the terminal yield because vacancy improved.
What would change the view. Stronger leasing may be concentrated in a different stock than the property for sale. Falling local collections or a more expensive buyer cost basis would weaken the positive operating case.
Before underwriting. Obtain a unit-level rent ledger, recent executed leases and actual comparable expense statements. Ask each broker to identify the cap denominator, income period and sample behind a quoted market rate.
Evidence: Matthews · Cleveland Q2 2026 · Lee & Associates · Q2 2026, PDF p. 152. Retrieved October 19, 2026. Interpretations and property decisions are RentalCalcs analysis.
South Cleveland and Strongsville–Medina: tight vacancy is not a neighborhood cap
Observed evidence and boundary. Matthews identifies these submarkets as particularly tight in Q2. It does not publish a matching neighborhood cap table.
Low physical availability can protect renewals, yet the resulting NOI depends on turnover repairs, utility responsibility and collection performance. A well-occupied older property can still have substantial capital demands.
Direction. Editorial interpretation: test renewal retention and maintenance cash before paying a scarcity premium. Separate a stronger current rent roll from an assumption that the eventual buyer will accept a lower cap.
What would change the view. Nearby new deliveries or unexpectedly high unit-turn costs could reduce the apparent advantage. Several matched closes with verified income would provide stronger pricing evidence.
Before underwriting. Match comparables by building age, unit mix and who pays utilities. Request roof, mechanical and plumbing schedules; do not set capital reserve to zero because vacancy is low.
Evidence: Matthews · Cleveland Q2 2026. Retrieved October 19, 2026. Interpretations and property decisions are RentalCalcs analysis.
Columbus and Hilliard: account for the units already in lease-up
Observed evidence and boundary. Colliers describes a large lease-up inventory and concentrated development in Hilliard. Newer-vintage vacancy is substantially higher than its overall occupancy would imply.
Fewer projected starts reduce later competition; they do not remove apartments already offered for rent. A stabilized building competing with new amenities may need concessions or retention spending before the reduced pipeline helps.
Direction. Editorial interpretation: stabilization should be earned through signed effective rents. Use a monthly leasing cash schedule around actual openings; keep any future compression separate from the operating plan.
What would change the view. Faster concession-free absorption would shorten the adjustment. Continued discounts, delayed stabilization or weaker household demand would extend it despite fewer starts.
Before underwriting. Map directly competing floor plans and opening dates. Include free rent in effective income, verify the subject’s vintage cohort, and update the parcel tax estimate when the county valuation cycle changes.
Evidence: Colliers · Columbus Q2 2026 · Ohio Taxation · valuation schedule. Retrieved October 19, 2026. Interpretations and property decisions are RentalCalcs analysis.
Cincinnati: shrinking construction can coexist with a supply overhang
Observed evidence and boundary. MMG’s trailing demand remains below completions. Lee’s local cap series is broadly unchanged annually while its quarterly vacancy edged higher.
A pipeline can shrink because projects finish, leaving more units to lease today. That is different from tenant demand catching up. The metro also extends beyond Ohio, so Kentucky and Indiana properties should not be used without checking location and buyer costs.
Direction. Editorial interpretation: require evidence that the existing supply is leasing before accelerating rent growth. A flat cap and slowly recovering collections make a more testable base than immediate repricing.
What would change the view. New starts or extended competitor concessions would delay the benefit. Full-price renewals and a sustained decline in economic vacancy would support a better income outlook.
Before underwriting. Use local closed sales with matched condition and income. Reconcile concessions, turnover downtime and cross-state tax differences; maintain enough cash for the lease-up gap.
Evidence: MMG · Cincinnati Q2 2026 · Lee & Associates · Cincinnati Q2 2026, PDF p. 172. Retrieved October 19, 2026. Interpretations and property decisions are RentalCalcs analysis.
Dayton, Toledo, Akron and rural duplexes: choose a different evidence set
Observed evidence and boundary. No current matched local cap series is verified here. Search queries about rural duplexes describe a separate one-to-four-unit decision from institutional apartment evidence.
Small-property lenders, individual utility arrangements and per-unit maintenance can change cash returns even when a listing advertises a similar cap. A major-metro average supplies neither a rural rent roll nor an exit market.
Direction. Editorial interpretation: suspend the geographic yield comparison until similar sales and local operating documents are available. Use the small-property analyzer for the actual financing structure.
What would change the view. Verified nearby closes, lender terms and collected lease evidence could make a specific acquisition underwritable; a generic Ohio premium cannot fill the gap.
Before underwriting. Request comparable closing income, local management quotes and inspection bids. Check the county’s current valuation schedule and distinguish a conventional lease from student or short-stay revenue.
Evidence: Lee & Associates · Q2 2026, PDF p. 152 · Ohio Taxation · valuation schedule. Retrieved October 19, 2026. Interpretations and property decisions are RentalCalcs analysis.
Secondary markets and missing evidence
| Market | Coverage | Remaining gap |
|---|---|---|
| Cleveland and supported suburbs | Two cap series kept separate; local vacancy context. | Reconciled inventory definition and verified submarket cap sample. |
| Columbus / Hilliard | Metro market cap and vintage/supply context. | Hilliard cap evidence and property-level concession data. |
| Cincinnati metro | National/local market series and independent brokerage interpretation. | Ohio-only and neighborhood sale-income cohorts; providers may overlap. |
| Dayton, Toledo, Akron and rural counties | Explicit gap; no metro rate transferred. | Comparable sale income, lease collections, lender and exit-market evidence. |
No neighborhood cap is assigned without matching neighborhood evidence. Missing evidence is a reason to obtain more comparables, not to add an arbitrary geographic spread.
Three cap-rate paths, and the evidence each needs
The Lee national table provides a consistent publication frame, not a verified transaction-only ranking. Its Cleveland measure and Matthews’ series differ enough that averaging them would create an unsupported statistic.
Colliers’ Columbus analysis and MMG’s Cincinnati outlook point toward future supply relief, but both identify an immediate absorption task. Different publishers can share commercial datasets; their commentary is an additional perspective, not proof of independent observations.
Editorial base case: prioritize sustainable NOI and adequate leasing cash. Cleveland’s tight pockets and Columbus’s newer lease-ups need different loss assumptions; none supports a single Ohio cap forecast.
Compression: supply is absorbed and financeable income improves
Concession-free stabilization and competitive financing could reduce buyer uncertainty around the major metros.
Watch: Executed effective rents, local vacancy, comparable sale NOI and lender quotes.
Invalidated or weakened by: Concessions persist or debt costs offset the income recovery.
Underwriting consequence: Do not use a tighter terminal cap to rescue an offer unsupported by current NOI.
Stabilization: operations recover while yields remain disciplined
Income gains can be offset by buyer taxes, maintenance and financing, leaving required yields broadly steady.
Watch: Collections after concessions, county valuation updates and capital bids.
Invalidated or weakened by: Sustained income misses or demonstrable matched-sale repricing.
Underwriting consequence: Size the offer from current income and separately fund lease-up costs.
Expansion: the delivery backlog takes longer to clear
Newly completed units and weak collections can reduce financeable NOI while lenders and buyers demand more protection.
Watch: Downtime, discounts, interest costs and debt-service coverage.
Invalidated or weakened by: Several quarters of full-price renewals and shrinking local availability.
Underwriting consequence: Reduce price or debt, and test a wider exit together with lower NOI.
These are conditional RentalCalcs scenarios, not publisher probability forecasts or basis-point targets. Policy rates, Treasury yields, lender spreads and the borrowing constant are different inputs. No policy-rate cut is assumed to pass through automatically to property debt.
What a wider cap does to your property value
Value = annual NOI ÷ (cap rate ÷ 100). At constant income, a higher cap reduces value. A move from 5% to 6% is +100 bps and a 16.7% value decline, not a 1% decline.
From this market evidence to an offer
- Select a matched cohortIdentify metro boundary, vintage, lease type and whether the cap is a market series or a verified sale-income ratio.
- Bridge asking rent to cashDeduct concessions, arrears and turnover loss. Replace taxes, insurance and maintenance with buyer-specific evidence.
- Stress supply and the exit separatelyFund the remaining lease-up calendar, then test lower NOI and a wider cap together. Keep debt payoff and selling costs outside this simple gross-value comparison.
Hypothetical assumptions. NOI change is cumulative over your chosen holding period, not an annual growth rate. Results exclude debt, sale costs, taxes and interim cash flow.
Starting value $2,400,000
Exit value $2,384,516 (-0.6%)
$168,000 starting NOI at 7% → $184,800 exit NOI at 7.75%. NOI must change by 10.7% to preserve starting value at this exit cap rate.
Fixed reference matrix: your income has to offset the multiple
| Total NOI change | 6.50% exit | 7.00% exit | 7.50% exit | 8.00% exit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -10% total NOI | -3.1% | -10.0% | -16.0% | -21.2% |
| 0% total NOI | +7.7% | 0.0% | -6.7% | -12.5% |
| +10% total NOI | +18.5% | +10.0% | +2.7% | -3.7% |
| +20% total NOI | +29.2% | +20.0% | +12.0% | +5.0% |
This fixed matrix does not change when you edit the interactive tool. No selling costs, tax, debt payoff or interim cash flows are included. Total NOI growth is cumulative, not annual. Use a full cash-flow model for an investment return.
A buyer budget that reconciles before the debt
Hypothetical 20-unit acquisition at $2,400,000, with $1,400 scheduled monthly rent per unit. These assumptions illustrate a process; they are not market rents, quoted insurance or a forecast for any property.
Hypothetical conventional apartment, not a metro sale. Stress concessions during competing lease-ups, county tax changes and capital work. Loan, tax and insurance inputs are assumptions.
| Budget line | Annual amount |
|---|---|
| Scheduled apartment rent | $336,000 |
| Other recurring income | $6,000 |
| Vacancy / concessions / collection loss | −$32,000 |
| Effective gross income | $310,000 |
| Buyer property taxes | −$44,000 |
| Insurance allowance | −$16,000 |
| Owner-paid utilities | −$20,000 |
| Recurring maintenance | −$28,000 |
| Management | −$22,000 |
| Administration / licenses / other recurring | −$12,000 |
| NOI before financing and reserves | $168,000 |
Going-in cap: 7.00%. Immediate work of $120,000 is capital spending outside NOI; recurring repairs are already included above. An annual $12,000 replacement reserve is deducted below NOI in this example.
| Measure | Result / assumption |
|---|---|
| Loan / interest / amortization | $1,440,000 / 6.75% assumed / 30 years; monthly amortizing payments, no interest-only period |
| Annual principal and interest | $112,078 |
| Replacement reserve outside NOI | $12,000 |
| Cash flow after debt and reserves | $43,922 |
| Down payment + closing + initial work | $960,000 + $48,000 + $120,000 = $1,128,000 |
| Cash-on-cash, before income tax | 3.89% = cash flow ÷ total invested cash |
| DSCR, before / after replacement reserve | 1.50× / 1.39× |
| Debt yield, before / after replacement reserve | 11.67% / 10.83% |
The interest assumption is not a current loan quote. DSCR = the stated NOI numerator ÷ annual debt service; debt yield = the stated numerator ÷ loan principal. Lenders may deduct reserves or make other adjustments. Closing and initial work are funded from cash; no extra initial reserve deposit is assumed. If a lender requires one, add it to invested cash. Yield on cost requires a separately defined stabilized NOI and total project basis; it is not the going-in cap.
How much room does this buyer actually have? The amortizing loan constant is 7.78%: annual debt service divided by loan principal. Compare that payment burden with the 7.00% going-in cap, rather than comparing the cap only with the interest coupon. In this example, adding leverage reduces current equity cash yield before tax.
With debt service and reserves fixed, an annual NOI reduction of $43,922 (26.1%) would consume the remaining cash flow. This is an NOI stress, not the same percentage decline in rent; rebuild income and expenses separately.
Use the county valuation calendar
Ohio reappraises real property on a six-year cycle with a third-year update. Obtain the county auditor’s current parcel valuation, applicable tax district and buyer estimate. Do not assume the seller’s bill stays fixed, or that a change in value produces an identical percentage tax increase.
Evidence: Ohio Taxation · valuation schedule. Retrieved October 19, 2026. Interpretations and property decisions are RentalCalcs analysis.
Read the income-restoration terms
Ohio’s insurance department explains that business-interruption protection depends on a covered cause of loss. Ask the commercial broker about building replacement, ordinance upgrades, water exclusions, deductibles and rental-income restoration. A lender’s minimum policy may not fund the entire interruption.
Evidence: Ohio Insurance · business interruption. Retrieved October 19, 2026. Interpretations and property decisions are RentalCalcs analysis.
Separate a rent recovery from an executable budget
For Columbus lease-ups and older Cleveland or Cincinnati stock, verify effective collections and repair costs separately. A smaller future pipeline cannot pay a current operating deficit.
Evidence: Colliers · Columbus Q2 2026. Retrieved October 19, 2026. Interpretations and property decisions are RentalCalcs analysis.
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Free worksheet: turn unknowns into document requests
The printable worksheet gives you room to record the source, date and buyer adjustment for every income, expense, capital and exit assumption. It includes this edition’s local checks.
For a full property model, use the multifamily calculator. The single-family calculator supports a separate 1–4-unit workflow. These links do not transfer this page’s inputs; re-enter and verify your assumptions.
Compare local screening context: Cuyahoga County · Franklin County · Hamilton County. County rent-to-price screens are modeled indexes, not matched closed-sale NOI caps. Explore the Ohio market directory.
Questions before an offer
What is a good cap rate for an Ohio apartment?
A published metro metric cannot set a required return by itself. The building’s verified income, buyer costs, condition, leverage and resale evidence determine the offer.
Why do Cleveland sources disagree?
Their public methods do not establish identical inventory, cap cohorts or income conventions. The report shows both with labels and does not average them.
Does this price rural Ohio duplexes?
No. One-to-four-unit properties need comparable local income, financing and maintenance evidence. The apartment series is context only.
Source ledger, dates and refresh rules
Research retrieved October 19, 2026. Observations, publisher outlooks and our conditional interpretation are labeled separately. This ledger summarizes publicly available research; it does not redistribute proprietary report datasets. Brokers may be selling services or properties; appraisal commentary is not a guarantee of future pricing.
Lee & Associates · Q2 2026, PDF p. 152
Geography: Publisher Columbus, Cincinnati and Cleveland markets. Period: Q2 2026. Published: 2026-08-03 (office release page). Accessed: 2026-10-19.
Property scope: Multifamily apartments. Class: As identified in observation; otherwise undisclosed. Substantive review: 2026-10-19.
Provider: Lee & Associates; CoStar-defined market territories and report-wide proprietary data. Measure: Published market cap comparison. Statistic: Publisher-reported observation.
NOI convention: Not disclosed; do not assume trailing or forward NOI. Sample: Metric-specific cap count not disclosed unless stated in row. Weighting: Not disclosed; do not combine publisher universes.
Limits: Cap sample, statistic aggregation and NOI convention undisclosed; not a statewide average. Refresh: Next source edition, correction or material rule change.
Lee & Associates · Cincinnati Q2 2026, PDF p. 172
Geography: Publisher Cincinnati metro; cross-state boundary. Period: Q2 2026 with prior-quarter/year columns. Published: 2026-08-03 (office release page). Accessed: 2026-10-19.
Property scope: Multifamily apartments. Class: As identified in observation; otherwise undisclosed. Substantive review: 2026-10-19.
Provider: Lee & Associates; report credits CoStar and proprietary data. Measure: Local cap series, vacancy and comparator periods. Statistic: Publisher-reported observation.
NOI convention: Not disclosed; do not assume trailing or forward NOI. Sample: Metric-specific cap count not disclosed unless stated in row. Weighting: Not disclosed; do not combine publisher universes.
Limits: Local and national table snapshots differ; no count of reported-cap transactions disclosed. Refresh: Next source edition, correction or material rule change.
Matthews · Cleveland Q2 2026
Geography: Publisher Cleveland metro and named submarkets. Period: Q2 2026. Published: 2026-08-14. Accessed: 2026-10-19.
Property scope: Multifamily apartments. Class: As identified in observation; otherwise undisclosed. Substantive review: 2026-10-19.
Provider: Matthews public summary; metric provider not stated. Measure: Cap series and local vacancy. Statistic: Publisher-reported observation.
NOI convention: Not disclosed; do not assume trailing or forward NOI. Sample: Metric-specific cap count not disclosed unless stated in row. Weighting: Not disclosed; do not combine publisher universes.
Limits: Not interchangeable with Lee; underlying sample, weighting and NOI not disclosed. Refresh: Next source edition, correction or material rule change.
Colliers · Columbus Q2 2026
Geography: Columbus metro; Hilliard and vintage cohorts. Period: Q2 2026; future starts explicitly forecast. Published: 2026-09-21. Accessed: 2026-10-19.
Property scope: Multifamily apartments. Class: As identified in observation; otherwise undisclosed. Substantive review: 2026-10-19.
Provider: Colliers public report; metric universes vary by overall, vintage and development series. Measure: Occupancy, newer-vintage vacancy and lease-up mechanism. Statistic: Publisher-reported observation.
NOI convention: Not disclosed; do not assume trailing or forward NOI. Sample: Metric-specific cap count not disclosed unless stated in row. Weighting: Not disclosed; do not combine publisher universes.
Limits: Overall and vintage data are not the same universe; no Hilliard cap derived. Refresh: Next source edition, correction or material rule change.
MMG · Cincinnati Q2 2026
Geography: Publisher Cincinnati metro. Period: Q2 2026 / trailing four quarters. Published: Not stated. Accessed: 2026-10-19.
Property scope: Multifamily apartments. Class: As identified in observation; otherwise undisclosed. Substantive review: 2026-10-19.
Provider: MMG public summary; underlying provider not disclosed. Measure: Absorption, completions and conditional outlook. Statistic: Publisher-reported observation.
NOI convention: Not disclosed; do not assume trailing or forward NOI. Sample: Metric-specific cap count not disclosed unless stated in row. Weighting: Not disclosed; do not combine publisher universes.
Limits: Not independent same-dataset corroboration; metro includes other states. Refresh: Next source edition, correction or material rule change.
Ohio Taxation · valuation schedule
Geography: Ohio; county auditor administration. Period: Current 2026–31 schedule. Published: Not stated. Accessed: 2026-10-19.
Property scope: Property guidance; not a cap observation. Class: Not applicable. Substantive review: 2026-10-19.
Provider: Ohio Department of Taxation. Measure: Reappraisal and triennial updates. Statistic: Official guidance.
NOI convention: Not applicable. Sample: Not applicable; official guidance. Weighting: Not applicable.
Limits: Tax burden remains parcel/district specific. Refresh: Next source edition, correction or material rule change.
Ohio Insurance · business interruption
Geography: Ohio. Period: Current guidance. Published: Not stated. Accessed: 2026-10-19.
Property scope: Property guidance; not a cap observation. Class: Not applicable. Substantive review: 2026-10-19.
Provider: Ohio Department of Insurance. Measure: Covered-loss and income-restoration questions. Statistic: Official guidance.
NOI convention: Not applicable. Sample: Not applicable; official guidance. Weighting: Not applicable.
Limits: Not a commercial quote or coverage determination. Refresh: Next source edition, correction or material rule change.
Refresh the affected figures and interpretation together when a new edition, correction or material operating rule appears. A retrieval or rebuild is not a new observation. Report a correction through RentalCalcs contact, including the source, edition, geography and affected claim.