Vermont cap evidence: what can actually be compared
A capitalization rate is annual net operating income divided by property price, before debt. A published cap metric helps select comparables; it cannot establish the subject property’s income or condition.
Dated evidence, not a statewide average
Original display. The numeric scale starts at zero and ends at 10%. Historical, asking and transaction observations retain their labels; missing data is not zero.
| Geography / asset | Period | Reported cap | Basis and limits |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chittenden apartment transactions | 2022; historical | 6.0% | Published average cited by official market study. Underlying Allen, Brooks & Minor sample and NOI convention not disclosed. |
| Chittenden apartment transactions | 2023; historical | 6.5% | Same historical source family. Not repeat sales; cohort may change. |
| Chittenden apartment transactions | 2024 YTD; historical | 6.7% | June 2024 underlying report cited in later study. Not full-year 2024 or a 2026 quote. |
| Current Vermont apartment cap | 2026 research review | Not verified | Coverage gap. Do not fill the gap with a rent/home-value ratio or a broker asking cap. |
The historical series widened 50 bps from 2022 to 2023 and another 20 bps to the 2024 YTD observation. Those are changes between different samples. They cannot establish the size or direction of a 2026 move. Current Vermont tax-assessment capitalization rules for special housing are also a different measure from open-market sale caps.
One percentage point = 100 basis points. Multiple publishers sharing a dataset do not create independent confirmation. Asking caps, reported-sale medians, averages and modeled county indexes must remain distinct.
The local decisions behind the cap rate
Burlington and South Burlington: scarcity is no substitute for lease evidence
Observed evidence and boundary. Hickok & Boardman’s July 2026 report records 48 Chittenden small-multifamily property sales in H1, a $550,000 whole-property median and 64 days on market. It cites approximately 3.3% apartment vacancy around Burlington/South Burlington; the underlying current survey was not independently obtained.
Small residential sales and apartment operations describe different inventories. A larger lease-up and a small existing building can respond differently to new supply. A current vacancy allowance should be supported by the property’s turnover calendar and competing effective rents, not the old near-zero-vacancy story.
Direction. RentalCalcs interpretation: underwrite slower leasing and stable caps before assuming scarcity will lift value. The historical 6.7% is useful for a question to an appraiser, not a number to paste into a 2026 offer.
What would change the view. Verified concession-free renewals and matching recent closed NOI caps would strengthen a tighter-pricing case. Persistent vacancy or collection losses would weaken stability.
Before underwriting. Get current unit-level receipts, lease expiration dates, concessions and nearby annual-lease comparisons. Ask specifically for comparable closed apartment NOI evidence, not only MLS property prices.
Evidence: Coldwell Banker Hickok & Boardman · White + Burke / Chittenden County Regional Planning Commission. Retrieved October 18, 2026. Interpretations and property decisions are RentalCalcs analysis.
Franklin and Grand Isle: thin samples make the exit assumption consequential
Observed evidence and boundary. The same H1 report lists nine Franklin County multifamily property sales and one in Grand Isle. These counts do not disclose apartment units or NOI.
A single transaction can change a county median dramatically. For a small building outside the Burlington core, the number of credible buyers and the time required to sell may matter more than an apparently precise county cap estimate.
Direction. Editorial interpretation: carry a longer sale window and avoid underwriting multiple expansion without local closings. Do not label a thin sample a distressed market solely because a percentage moved.
What would change the view. Several comparable funded closings would improve price discovery. One listing, even with a stated cap, would not resolve the sample problem.
Before underwriting. Ask local lenders and appraisers for closed comparables with dates, legal unit counts and consistent expenses. Test the carrying costs of a slower exit separately from the cap-rate sensitivity.
Evidence: Coldwell Banker Hickok & Boardman. Retrieved October 18, 2026. Interpretations and property decisions are RentalCalcs analysis.
Washington County: marketing time and flood resilience belong together
Observed evidence and boundary. Hickok & Boardman reports 13 Washington County H1 property sales and 161 days on market. Vermont’s Flood Ready resources distinguish floodplain and river-corridor mapping and discuss commercial flood coverage gaps.
For a Montpelier or Barre acquisition, a price concession may compensate for holding costs, building work or site risk rather than deliver excess yield. Check the location of heat, electrical systems and occupied space relative to the mapped and documented hazard exposure.
Direction. Editorial interpretation: a more negotiable purchase can still require more cash to own. Prioritize a fully quoted operating and recovery plan before selecting a discount rate or exit cap.
What would change the view. A strong site assessment, bindable coverage and a funded mitigation plan could materially improve the property case. A lender’s map check alone does not establish full coverage or eliminate river-erosion risk.
Before underwriting. Obtain parcel maps, prior-loss and repair records, commercial flood/business-income terms, and a plan for tenant displacement. Separate immediate mitigation from recurring NOI expenses.
Evidence: Coldwell Banker Hickok & Boardman · Vermont Flood Ready / DEC · Vermont Flood Ready. Retrieved October 18, 2026. Interpretations and property decisions are RentalCalcs analysis.
Addison, Lamoille, Rutland and southern Vermont: match the tenant business
Observed evidence and boundary. The public 2026 evidence reviewed here does not establish a comparable current cap sample for these markets. VHFA’s statewide needs assessment provides housing-demand context rather than transaction pricing.
For an academic catchment, stress a missed leasing season. For resort-oriented locations, distinguish annual workforce leases from furnished seasonal revenue. For dispersed towns, quote management travel, utilities and system maintenance instead of importing a Burlington expense ratio.
Direction. Editorial interpretation: housing need can support demand while local affordability still limits achievable rent. A shortage does not establish a collectible rent increase or an assured resale multiple.
What would change the view. Documented year-round tenant demand and a credible local closing sample could narrow uncertainty. A statewide need projection cannot do that on its own.
Before underwriting. Build an annual lease/collection calendar and identify the actual exit buyer. Obtain town-specific taxes and property-specific capital and insurance quotes before setting the cap assumption.
Evidence: Vermont Housing Finance Agency · Vermont Department of Taxes. Retrieved October 18, 2026. Interpretations and property decisions are RentalCalcs analysis.
Secondary markets and missing evidence
| Market | Coverage | Remaining gap |
|---|---|---|
| Chittenden | Historical apartment cap averages; current small-property sales and broker-reported vacancy context | No verified 2026 primary cap series or underlying current survey. |
| Franklin / Grand Isle / Washington | Dated property sale counts and marketing-time context | No NOI cap cohort; county counts are not apartment units and are not summed. |
| Rest of Vermont | Official housing and property-risk resources; individual diligence guidance | No quantitative local cap assignment. Rural, student and seasonal rental models need separate evidence. |
No neighborhood cap is assigned without matching neighborhood evidence. Missing evidence is a reason to obtain more comparables, not to add an arbitrary geographic spread.
Three cap-rate paths, and the evidence each needs
White + Burke’s CCRPC market study supplies historical transaction context. Hickok & Boardman supplies a current small-property sales perspective and describes greater buyer negotiating room. Neither makes a verified 2026 cap forecast.
VHFA’s housing needs perspective addresses structural demand. It can coexist with slower current leasing or sales: the timing, location, rent level and building type of available homes matter. These sources are not independent measurements of the same cap statistic.
RentalCalcs base case: use a stable-cap underwriting scenario with a wider-cap downside, not a claimed measured Vermont forecast. Explicitly obtain local closed cap evidence before treating the investment committee’s chosen input as market-supported.
Compression
Durable year-round income and more competitive funded buyers increase the price paid per dollar of verified NOI.
Watch: Recent local closed caps, effective renewals and actual lender quotes.
Invalidated or weakened by: Evidence remains asking-only, income depends on seasonal peaks, or tax/insurance growth consumes rent gains.
Underwriting consequence: Treat tighter caps as upside until new transaction evidence supports them.
Stabilization
Long-term housing need supports tenants, but current supply, affordability and debt costs limit rent and multiple growth.
Watch: Unit turnover, concession-free collections, operating costs and sale marketing time.
Invalidated or weakened by: Persistent vacancies or a matched set of completed transactions showing repricing.
Underwriting consequence: Use flat caps with quote-backed expenses; do not insert an invented state rate.
Expansion
Slower lease-up, taxes, flood-related costs or thin exit liquidity increase required yields.
Watch: Bindable insurance terms, capital bids, lender proceeds and local collection trends.
Invalidated or weakened by: Resilient cash collections and funded comparable trades demonstrate stronger pricing after all property costs.
Underwriting consequence: Stress lower NOI and a wider cap together; budget additional holding cash.
These are conditional RentalCalcs scenarios, not publisher probability forecasts or basis-point targets. Policy rates, Treasury yields, lender spreads and the borrowing constant are different inputs. No policy-rate cut is assumed to pass through automatically to property debt.
What a wider cap does to your property value
Value = annual NOI ÷ (cap rate ÷ 100). At constant income, a higher cap reduces value. A move from 5% to 6% is +100 bps and a 16.7% value decline, not a 1% decline.
From this market evidence to an offer
- Verify the revenue seasonSeparate annual workforce, academic and seasonal leases before capitalizing income.
- Price the parcelRebuild nonhomestead taxes, utilities, capital work and flood/river risk for the exact location.
- Find the exit evidenceRequest local closed NOI caps; use explicit scenarios while that evidence remains unavailable.
Hypothetical assumptions. NOI change is cumulative over your chosen holding period, not an annual growth rate. Results exclude debt, sale costs, taxes and interim cash flow.
Starting value $1,200,000
Exit value $1,164,706 (-2.9%)
$90,000 starting NOI at 7.5% → $99,000 exit NOI at 8.5%. NOI must change by 13.3% to preserve starting value at this exit cap rate.
Fixed reference matrix: your income has to offset the multiple
| Total NOI change | 7.00% exit | 7.50% exit | 8.00% exit | 8.50% exit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -10% total NOI | -3.6% | -10.0% | -15.6% | -20.6% |
| 0% total NOI | +7.1% | 0.0% | -6.3% | -11.8% |
| +10% total NOI | +17.9% | +10.0% | +3.1% | -2.9% |
| +20% total NOI | +28.6% | +20.0% | +12.5% | +5.9% |
This fixed matrix does not change when you edit the interactive tool. No selling costs, tax, debt payoff or interim cash flows are included. Total NOI growth is cumulative, not annual. Use a full cash-flow model for an investment return.
A buyer budget that reconciles before the debt
Hypothetical 8-unit acquisition at $1,200,000, with $1,800 scheduled monthly rent per unit. These assumptions illustrate a process; they are not market rents, quoted insurance or a forecast for any property.
Replace the $24,000 tax allowance with town-specific nonhomestead and municipal taxes; quote flood/business-income terms and fund a longer turnover or restoration period.
| Budget line | Annual amount |
|---|---|
| Scheduled apartment rent | $172,800 |
| Other recurring income | $3,200 |
| Vacancy / concessions / collection loss | −$10,000 |
| Effective gross income | $166,000 |
| Buyer property taxes | −$24,000 |
| Insurance allowance | −$10,000 |
| Owner-paid utilities | −$14,000 |
| Recurring maintenance | −$12,000 |
| Management | −$11,000 |
| Administration / licenses / other recurring | −$5,000 |
| NOI before financing and reserves | $90,000 |
Going-in cap: 7.50%. Immediate work of $95,000 is capital spending outside NOI; recurring repairs are already included above. An annual $6,400 replacement reserve is deducted below NOI in this example.
| Measure | Result / assumption |
|---|---|
| Loan / interest / amortization | $660,000 / 6.5% assumed / 30 years; monthly amortizing payments, no interest-only period |
| Annual principal and interest | $50,060 |
| Replacement reserve outside NOI | $6,400 |
| Cash flow after debt and reserves | $33,540 |
| Down payment + closing + initial work | $540,000 + $36,000 + $95,000 = $671,000 |
| Cash-on-cash, before income tax | 5.00% = cash flow ÷ total invested cash |
| DSCR, before / after replacement reserve | 1.80× / 1.67× |
| Debt yield, before / after replacement reserve | 13.64% / 12.67% |
The interest assumption is not a current loan quote. DSCR = the stated NOI numerator ÷ annual debt service; debt yield = the stated numerator ÷ loan principal. Lenders may deduct reserves or make other adjustments. Closing and initial work are funded from cash; no extra initial reserve deposit is assumed. If a lender requires one, add it to invested cash. Yield on cost requires a separately defined stabilized NOI and total project basis; it is not the going-in cap.
How much room does this buyer actually have? The amortizing loan constant is 7.58%: annual debt service divided by loan principal. Compare that payment burden with the 7.50% going-in cap, rather than comparing the cap only with the interest coupon. In this example, adding leverage reduces current equity cash yield before tax. With debt service and reserves fixed, an annual NOI reduction of $33,540 (37.3%) would consume the remaining cash flow. This is an NOI stress, not the same percentage decline in rent; rebuild income and expenses separately.
Nonhomestead buyer taxes
Vermont’s FY2027 tables cover the 2026–27 tax year. Education and municipal components must both be checked for the town and parcel; do not use a seller’s homestead treatment or multiply purchase price by a generic statewide percentage.
Evidence: Vermont Department of Taxes. Retrieved October 18, 2026. Interpretations and property decisions are RentalCalcs analysis.
Flood and river corridors
Use Vermont’s Flood Ready Atlas and river-corridor resources, then obtain a qualified site review. Hazard mapping, prior damage and insurance eligibility are different questions.
Evidence: Vermont Flood Ready / DEC. Retrieved October 18, 2026. Interpretations and property decisions are RentalCalcs analysis.
Commercial coverage
Vermont Flood Ready explains that commercial property coverage typically excludes flood damage. Confirm building, contents, business income, deductibles and restoration timing. The example premium is hypothetical.
Evidence: Vermont Flood Ready. Retrieved October 18, 2026. Interpretations and property decisions are RentalCalcs analysis.
Free worksheet: turn unknowns into document requests
The printable worksheet gives you room to record the source, date and buyer adjustment for every income, expense, capital and exit assumption. It includes this edition’s local checks.
For a full property model, use the multifamily calculator. The single-family calculator supports a separate 1–4-unit workflow. These links do not transfer this page’s inputs; re-enter and verify your assumptions.
The county cap-rate screens for the local markets discussed here did not provide usable content during this edition’s verification. Obtain matched property sales directly; the state directory can help locate other available county data. Explore the Vermont market directory.
Questions before an offer
What is Vermont’s cap rate in 2026?
This edition cannot substantiate a statewide rate. It provides dated historical apartment evidence, current sales context and an explicit path to obtain property-level evidence.
Can I capitalize rent using a county home-value index?
That produces a modeled screening ratio, not an observed NOI cap. Expenses, building mix and the asset price denominator differ.
Does a housing shortage guarantee rising rent?
No. Tenant affordability, competing units, lease timing and operating costs can prevent the needed NOI growth even where long-term need is high.
Source ledger, dates and refresh rules
Research retrieved October 18, 2026. Observations, publisher outlooks and our conditional interpretation are labeled separately. This ledger summarizes publicly available research; it does not redistribute proprietary report datasets. Brokers may be selling services or properties; appraisal commentary is not a guarantee of future pricing.
White + Burke / Chittenden County Regional Planning Commission
Geography: Chittenden apartment market; not statewide. Period: 2022 / 2023 / 2024 YTD. Published: Posted May 2025; underlying report June 2024. Accessed: 2026-10-18.
Property scope: Multifamily / apartments; inventory limits stated in observation. Class: Not disclosed unless specified in observation or sample limits. Substantive review: 2026-10-18.
Provider: Allen, Brooks & Minor June 2024, cited by commissioned study. Measure: 6.0%, 6.5%, 6.7% historical apartment cap averages. Statistic: Publisher-reported observation.
NOI convention: Not disclosed; do not assume trailing or forward NOI. Sample: Not disclosed. Weighting: Not disclosed unless specified in metric.
Limits: Original underlying private report not obtained; no current rate inferred. Refresh: Next source edition, correction, or material change in the cited rule.
Coldwell Banker Hickok & Boardman
Geography: Northwest / Central Vermont selected counties. Period: H1 2026; vacancy context June 2026. Published: July 2026. Accessed: 2026-10-18.
Property scope: Multifamily / apartments; inventory limits stated in observation. Class: Not disclosed unless specified in observation or sample limits. Substantive review: 2026-10-18.
Provider: Broker MLS reporting; Allen, Brooks & Minor for cited vacancy context. Measure: Property sale counts, whole-property prices, days on market. Statistic: Publisher-reported observation.
NOI convention: Not disclosed; do not assume trailing or forward NOI. Sample: Not disclosed. Weighting: Not disclosed unless specified in metric.
Limits: Not apartment unit prices or caps; table county counts do not reconcile to aggregate, so no total is derived. Current vacancy survey independently unavailable. Refresh: Next source edition, correction, or material change in the cited rule.
Vermont Housing Finance Agency
Geography: Vermont housing need. Period: 2025–2029 needs assessment; future targets. Published: 2025. Accessed: 2026-10-18.
Property scope: Multifamily / apartments; inventory limits stated in observation. Class: Not disclosed unless specified in observation or sample limits. Substantive review: 2026-10-18.
Provider: VHFA / Census and state housing data. Measure: Structural housing-demand and target framework. Statistic: Publisher-reported observation.
NOI convention: Not disclosed; do not assume trailing or forward NOI. Sample: Not disclosed. Weighting: Not disclosed unless specified in metric.
Limits: Planning targets are scenarios, not apartment investment returns. Refresh: Next source edition, correction, or material change in the cited rule.
Vermont Department of Taxes
Geography: Town-specific FY2027 rates. Period: 2026–27 property-tax year. Published: 2026; check current town table. Accessed: 2026-10-18.
Property scope: Property guidance / resource; not a cap observation. Class: Not applicable. Substantive review: 2026-10-18.
Provider: State of Vermont / towns. Measure: Education property-tax rates. Statistic: Official tax guidance.
NOI convention: Not applicable (not a cap-rate observation). Sample: Not applicable. Weighting: Not applicable.
Limits: Municipal component and parcel assessment must be checked separately. Refresh: Next source edition, correction, or material change in the cited rule.
Vermont Flood Ready / DEC
Geography: Parcel-specific Vermont. Period: Effective map for parcel. Published: Continuously maintained. Accessed: 2026-10-18.
Property scope: Property guidance / resource; not a cap observation. Class: Not applicable. Substantive review: 2026-10-18.
Provider: State floodplain and river-corridor maps / FEMA. Measure: Hazard mapping resource. Statistic: Official mapping resource.
NOI convention: Not applicable (not a cap-rate observation). Sample: Not applicable. Weighting: Not applicable.
Limits: Map lookup is not a site assessment or an insurance quote. Refresh: Next source edition, correction, or material change in the cited rule.
Vermont Flood Ready
Geography: Vermont property insurance context. Period: Current guidance accessed October 18, 2026. Published: Not stated. Accessed: 2026-10-18.
Property scope: Property guidance / resource; not a cap observation. Class: Not applicable. Substantive review: 2026-10-18.
Provider: State of Vermont / NFIP guidance. Measure: Commercial flood exclusion and insurance resources. Statistic: Official guidance.
NOI convention: Not applicable (not a cap-rate observation). Sample: Not applicable. Weighting: Not applicable.
Limits: No property-specific premium or coverage inferred. Refresh: Next source edition, correction, or material change in the cited rule.
Refresh the affected figures and interpretation together when a new edition, correction or material operating rule appears. A retrieval or rebuild is not a new observation. Report a correction through RentalCalcs contact, including the source, edition, geography and affected claim.