Independence market analysis
Independence County scores 78 overall and ranks 14th nationally out of 1,000 counties tracked, landing in the 98th percentile and first in Arkansas among 74 counties evaluated. That ranking sits almost entirely on appreciation and affordability, not cash flow. The dataset does not include a gross rent figure or cap rate for this county, so underwriting to a specific yield is not possible from the data at hand. What is clear is that the median home price of $175,323 is low in absolute terms, prices rose 5.31% year-over-year, and the affordability index of 92 puts housing well within reach for the local renter pool. The appreciation score of 87 is the engine here. The cash flow score of 0 tells you plainly that this is not a market where you buy a stabilized asset and clip coupons from day one.
For an appreciation-oriented buyer, the combination of a $175,323 entry point and 5.31% annual price growth is worth attention. On a 20% down payment of $35,065 you are controlling an asset that added roughly $9,300 in value over the past year at that growth rate, which is a meaningful return on the equity deployed even before accounting for any rent collected. For a cash-flow buyer, the missing rent and cap rate data are themselves a signal: markets this affordable in rural Arkansas often carry thin rent-to-price ratios, and without a confirmed gross yield above operating costs and a 6.85% financing rate, you cannot responsibly underwrite to income. A value-add operator working distressed or under-rented assets might find opportunity at this price point, but that thesis requires local market knowledge and property-level rent analysis that this county-level data does not supply.
No economic anchors or employer data were provided for Independence County, so characterizing the demand drivers behind that 5.31% appreciation number is not possible from the information given. What the population figure of 37,910 does indicate is a small, likely single-industry or government-service-dependent market. Stability scores of 50 reinforce that read: this is not a diverse-economy metro with multiple demand drivers cushioning vacancy cycles. Concentration risk is real at this scale, and an investor should identify what is actually driving rental demand before committing capital.
On carry costs, the tax and insurance picture is a genuine tailwind. Arkansas's state-average effective property tax rate of 0.62% is flagged as low, and at that rate the annual property tax on a $175,323 asset comes to roughly $1,087. Add $842 in annual insurance and the combined monthly carry for tax and insurance is $161. That is a material cost advantage relative to markets in the 1.5% to 2.0% tax band. Worth restating: the 0.62% figure is a state-average estimate from Tax Foundation 2024 data, and your actual county or township rate may differ, so confirm the county assessor's rate before closing. But if county-level rates track close to the state average, the low tax burden gives you more margin to absorb the tighter income side of the ledger.
Looking at the neighboring counties, Independence is priced between Prairie ($149,082, score 74), Scott ($152,008, score 73) and Perry ($182,366, score 71), while Grant sits higher at $206,491 with the same 74 score as Prairie. Jefferson County is the outlier worth examining: median home price of $84,271, a rent-to-price ratio of 0.126, and an implied gross yield approaching 12.6% annualized, against an overall score of 71. If cash flow is your objective, Jefferson on that rent-to-price ratio looks like the more direct route, even with its lower overall score. Independence earns its top statewide rank through appreciation momentum and affordability, not income yield, and its neighbors with known rent data make that contrast concrete. Choose Independence over its neighbors when you are building equity through price appreciation on a low-cost basis, have a longer hold horizon, and can absorb the uncertainty of thin or unconfirmed cash flow at a 6.85% rate. Choose Jefferson if yield is the priority and you are willing to underwrite the lower price point and whatever concentration or economic risks that county carries.
Price History
Median Home Price
Median Rent
Historical data from Zillow ZHVI/ZORI
Score Breakdown
Rent data not available for cash flow calculation.
Based on 5.3% YoY price growth. Moderate growth (3-8%) scores highest.
Population data not available.
Based on price relative to estimated local incomes.
Scores are calculated using real Zillow home value and rent data, Census population data, and economic indicators. The weighted average produces the overall investment score. Markets with missing rent data use estimated values based on regional averages.
Investment Outlook
Strengths
- +Strong price appreciation (+5.3% YoY)
- +Affordable relative to local incomes
Challenges
- -Negative leverage (cap rate 0.0% < mortgage rate 6.9%)
- -Limited rent data (estimates used)
Economic Indicators
Who this market fits
- +Appreciation buyers: YoY growth is meaningfully above the long-run average
- −You can't tolerate negative leverage (cap rate below mortgage rate today)
Compare to Nearby Counties
Section 8 in Independence County: payment standards by ZIP, PHA waitlist status, and voucher counts are on VoucherMatch, the same HUD dataset with the tenant demand side attached.
The Bottom Line
Independence County in Arkansas scores 78/100, ranking #14 of 1,000 US counties (top 2%). At 20% down and current rates, a median-priced rental roughly breaks even on cash flow. The deal works on appreciation or with better terms, not on month-one cash flow.