Montgomery market analysis
Montgomery County, Arkansas scores 73 overall and lands in the 89th percentile nationally across 1,000 counties, ranking 3rd out of 74 Arkansas counties. The headline number that defines this market is a 9.15% year-over-year home price gain to a median of $222,521, which is the clearest signal of what this county is and is not. The cash-flow score is 0. No cap rate, no estimated cash flow, and no rent-to-price ratio are available in the data, which itself tells you something: this is not a market where the income math is readily transparent or likely to pencil on a leveraged buy at today's prices. The appreciation score of 82 and the affordability index of 82 suggest that prices are moving fast relative to where they started, and entry points are still comparatively accessible by national standards, but the cash-flow picture is absent rather than attractive.
This market suits an appreciation-oriented buyer more than a cash-flow operator. The 9.15% price gain in a single year in a county of 8,555 people is notable, and the affordability score of 82 means that a $222,521 median entry point remains within reach for buyers using conventional financing at 6.85%. What this market does not suit is an investor running a yield-first strategy. A cash-flow score of 0 combined with missing rent and cap rate data means you cannot underwrite this on income alone without doing significant local legwork first. A value-add operator could potentially find opportunity here if rents are genuinely lagging prices, which the missing rent data may reflect, but that thesis requires boots-on-the-ground verification rather than a spreadsheet decision.
On carry costs, the property tax picture is a real tailwind. Arkansas carries a state-average effective property tax rate of 0.62%, flagged here as low, which translates to roughly $1,380 annually on a $222,521 purchase. Combined with an estimated $1,068 in annual insurance, the combined monthly tax-and-insurance load is approximately $204. That is a meaningful cushion in the fixed-cost structure compared to high-tax states where the same price point might carry $500 or more per month in taxes alone. Keep in mind this is a state-average estimate using Tax Foundation 2024 data, and the actual county or township rate in Montgomery County may differ, so confirm the local millage before closing. Still, even with some variance, the low-rate flag points to a structural cost advantage worth factoring into any scenario analysis.
The stability score of 50 is the number that demands the most attention before committing capital. In a county of 8,555 people, economic concentration risk is real. No economic anchor data is provided for Montgomery County, so no employer names or industry drivers can be cited here, but the population size alone warrants scrutiny. Small rural Arkansas counties can see outsized rent demand swings tied to a single employer or seasonal activity, and a population base this size leaves little margin for vacancy before cash flow deteriorates materially. The absence of rent data in the dataset reinforces the need for local market research on actual lease comps and vacancy rates before underwriting any acquisition.
Compared to its neighbors, Montgomery County carries the highest median home price in the group at $222,521, sitting roughly $16,000 above Grant County at $206,491 and $40,000 above Perry County at $182,366. Scott County at $152,008 and Prairie County at $149,082 offer lower entry points with identical or slightly higher overall scores of 73 and 74 respectively. Jefferson County is the outlier: at a $84,271 median and a rent-to-price ratio of 0.126, it is the only neighbor with visible cash-flow data, and that ratio points to a genuine income market. An investor should choose Montgomery over its neighbors specifically when the thesis is price appreciation and low carry costs on a buy-and-hold with a long horizon. If the goal is day-one yield or cash-on-cash return, Jefferson County's data is more inviting and warrants a parallel underwrite. Montgomery's 9.15% price appreciation and top-three state ranking are its real differentiators; investors who cannot monetize appreciation through equity or eventual sale are likely better positioned elsewhere in this peer group.
Price History
Median Home Price
Median Rent
Historical data from Zillow ZHVI/ZORI
Score Breakdown
Rent data not available for cash flow calculation.
Based on 9.2% YoY price growth. Moderate growth (3-8%) scores highest.
Population data not available.
Based on price relative to estimated local incomes.
Scores are calculated using real Zillow home value and rent data, Census population data, and economic indicators. The weighted average produces the overall investment score. Markets with missing rent data use estimated values based on regional averages.
Investment Outlook
Strengths
- +Strong price appreciation (+9.2% YoY)
- +Affordable relative to local incomes
Challenges
- -Negative leverage (cap rate 0.0% < mortgage rate 6.9%)
- -Limited rent data (estimates used)
Economic Indicators
Who this market fits
- +Appreciation buyers: YoY growth is meaningfully above the long-run average
- −You can't tolerate negative leverage (cap rate below mortgage rate today)
Compare to Nearby Counties
Section 8 in Montgomery County: payment standards by ZIP, PHA waitlist status, and voucher counts are on VoucherMatch, the same HUD dataset with the tenant demand side attached.
The Bottom Line
Montgomery County in Arkansas scores 73/100, ranking #88 of 1,000 US counties (top 11%). At 20% down and current rates, a median-priced rental roughly breaks even on cash flow. The deal works on appreciation or with better terms, not on month-one cash flow.