Duval County, FL Cap Rates by Neighborhood

The County-Wide Gross Yield Is a Starting Point, Not an Answer

At $297,493 median home price and $1,616/month median rent, Duval County produces a gross yield of 6.52% (15.3x price-to-rent ratio). That figure is better than Miami and Tampa on a raw basis, but it masks wide dispersion across asset types, neighborhoods, and flood-risk profiles. An Avondale small multifamily at $1,650/month rent on a different acquisition basis lands in a completely different range than a low-lying Northside SFR where flood insurance adds hundreds per month to operating costs. The county median is a benchmark for orientation; the submarket and the specific parcel determine whether a deal actually works.

Home prices are down 1.69% year-over-year on the ZHVI measure while rents continue recovering off the 2024–2025 oversupply trough. That dynamic is mildly favorable for yield: prices softened while the rent floor held, creating modest cap rate expansion versus the peak. The window for that trade is narrowing. By April 2026, days on market compressed to 36 days from 64 days in early 2025, and June 2026 closed sales were up 29% year-over-year. Acquisition cost pressure is returning.

Property Tax Drag on Net Yield

Before running any submarket comparison, quantify the tax line. Duval County's median effective property tax rate is 1.23%, with district-level rates ranging from 0.96% in Neptune Beach to 1.60% in Baldwin.

On a $297,493 acquisition:

• At 1.23% (county median): $3,659/year in property taxes, or $305/month
• At 0.96% (Neptune Beach floor): $2,856/year, or $238/month
• At 1.60% (Baldwin ceiling): $4,760/year, or $397/month

Against a $1,616/month gross rent, taxes alone consume 19%–25% of gross income depending on taxing district. An investor underwriting to the county average and then closing in Baldwin will see net yield compress by an additional 37 basis points relative to that average. Underwrite to the specific parcel's tax district, not the county-wide median.

Starting from the 6.52% gross yield and subtracting only taxes at 1.23% drops net yield to roughly 5.3% before insurance, maintenance, vacancy, or management. Flood insurance exposure and the residual supply absorption story in Southside and Northside can push net yields lower in the wrong zip codes.

Neighborhood and Submarket Breakdown

Avondale and San Marco (Established Urban Core)

These are the two neighborhoods with the most current rent data from the brief. Avondale rents reached $1,650/month as of September 2025 (up 11.86% over the prior month). San Marco hit $1,550/month (up 5.08% in the same period). These are established, walkable corridors showing re-gentrification rent momentum.

At $1,650/month in Avondale on an asset priced near the county median of $297,493, gross yield clears 6.65%. If acquisition basis is below median (older stock, value-add condition), yields expand further. The re-gentrification thesis here is: below-market leases get reset at turnover to the prevailing Avondale rate, improving NOI without capex. The risk is that acquisition premiums for these neighborhoods may already price in some of that upside.

San Marco at $1,550/month against a likely above-median acquisition price (established, walkable neighborhood) probably lands gross yield closer to 6.1%–6.3%. Still above coastal Florida peers, but thinner margin for error on the net side.

Southside and Northside (Multifamily Supply Overhang)

These two submarkets carry the heaviest burden from the 2023–2024 multifamily supply wave. With 4,628 units still under construction countywide adding about 3.8% to total inventory upon delivery, Southside and Northside are the primary delivery zones. Absorption is recovering, and multifamily starts collapsed 61% from 2024 levels, so new supply is thinning. But investors underwriting today must stress-test stabilized vacancy assumptions. A deal that pencils at 5% vacancy in Southside may actually operate at 8%–10% vacancy through 2026 as new deliveries lease up.

Gross yield math does not change the submarket supply dynamic. If you are acquiring multifamily in these corridors, the rent growth recovery to about 2.0% projected by end of 2025 is the mechanism that eventually stabilizes yields, but getting there requires holding through further lease-up pressure.

Bartram Park, Jacksonville Heights, and Edgewood (Early-Cycle Neighborhoods)

The brief identifies these three as emerging investment targets with different risk profiles:

• Bartram Park (southern Jacksonville): rapid population growth near the St. Johns County border, newer stock, higher acquisition basis, but tenant quality supported by suburban job growth.
• Jacksonville Heights: affordable entry points, meaning lower acquisition basis and potentially higher gross yields, with appreciation upside if urban-core investment radiates outward.
• Edgewood: historic resurgence near downtown, similar thesis to Avondale but at an earlier cycle stage.

No neighborhood-level rent data exists in the brief for these three to run hard yield numbers. The investment thesis rests on basis, not current yield: buy below where rents imply you should, and let rent growth and appreciation close the gap. Jacksonville Heights, as the most affordable entry point, likely produces the highest gross yield today at the cost of more management intensity and slower appreciation visibility.

Neighborhood Gross Yield Comparison

All gross yields are pre-tax, pre-insurance, and pre-vacancy. Net yields require full operating cost underwriting specific to each parcel.

Flood Insurance as a Yield Eraser

About 25% of Duval County properties carry moderate flood risk. For those parcels, flood insurance is not an afterthought: rising premiums are identified as the most immediately impactful risk to the Jacksonville housing market, and they directly erode buyer purchasing power and achievable sale prices for waterfront and low-lying properties.

A landlord holding a flood-zone SFR who absorbs a material premium increase cannot always pass it through to tenants mid-lease. If flood insurance premiums on an affected property run $200–$400/month (a realistic range for NFIP-rated moderate-risk properties post-Risk Rating 2.0 adjustments), that wipes out 12–25 additional basis points of net yield on a $297,493 asset before any other operating cost. On a deal already net-yielding 5.3% after taxes, losing another 25 basis points is the difference between a workable hold and a dead deal.

The discipline: screen every acquisition for FEMA flood zone designation before modeling. Avoid over-leveraged positions in high-risk zones where a premium reset at renewal cannot be recovered through rent increases.

ADU Yield Uplift: A Real Path to Above-Market Returns

Florida HB 1339 (2024) requires Jacksonville to approve ADUs by-right with ministerial (non-discretionary) review and eliminates owner-occupancy requirements. Impact fees are capped at the single-family rate. The city's own Ordinance 2022-0448-E already legalized ADUs in most single-family zones, capped at 25% of primary residence or 750 square feet.

The yield math on an ADU addition is favorable when the construction basis is controlled. On a $297,493 SFR generating $1,616/month, adding a 750-square-foot ADU at even $900/month incremental rent raises the gross income from that asset by 56%. The effective gross yield on the total investment (original purchase plus ADU construction cost) depends entirely on construction cost per square foot, but investors who can execute in the $80,000–$120,000 ADU build range get a second income stream that carries no land cost premium. This is one of the cleaner value-add structures in the county for SFR investors.

Cap Rate Outlook

The direction of cap rates in Duval County over the next 12–24 months depends on two competing forces.

Compressive pressure: Sales volume surged 29% year-over-year in June 2026, days on market fell to 36 days, and in-migration from Miami, New York, and Washington D.C. continues. Population growth running at twice the national average through 2029 per ESRI projections supports sustained demand. As buyer competition returns, acquisition prices will rise faster than rents in the near term, compressing yields.

Expansive support: Rent growth recovery toward 2.0% is the base case as the 61% drop in multifamily starts takes pipeline inventory off the table and absorption catches up to existing supply. Mayo Clinic's completed $378 million expansion and a $147 million federal DOT transit grant both create medium-term demand supports in healthcare and transit-adjacent corridors. Wage growth of 4.7% year-over-year in 2024 raises the ceiling on what renters can pay.

The practical read: investors who acquire in mid-2026 are buying a tighter market than mid-2025 but still one with below-coastal pricing and recovering rent fundamentals. Submarket selection (avoiding oversupplied Southside/Northside multifamily, screening flood exposure, targeting Avondale/San Marco and emerging corridors with rent momentum) is the variable that determines whether a deal performs or underperforms the county average. The county average will not protect you. The parcel will.

Model your specific deal with our investment property calculator to run net yield after taxes, insurance, and vacancy against your actual acquisition basis.