Duval County

Duval County sits at a gross rent-to-price ratio of 6.54%, which puts it squarely in the middle of the cash-flow versus appreciation spectrum, leaning slightly toward cash flow without fully delivering on either. The 4.25% cap rate is the honest number to anchor your underwrite: it covers a median home price of $294,079 and median rent of $1,603, but at a 6.85% mortgage rate with 20% down, the levered math turns negative fast. The model spits out a monthly cash flow of negative $500 and a cash-on-cash return of negative 8.87%. Year-over-year home prices are essentially flat at negative 0.32%, so there is no appreciation tailwind currently covering that carry deficit. Duval scores 65 on cash flow and 48 on appreciation out of 100, which is a reasonable summary of where it stands: better than a pure appreciation play, not good enough to pencil on leverage without meaningful property selection or a below-market purchase.

The investor this market suits right now is either a cash buyer who can capture the 4.25% cap rate without debt service drag, or an operator hunting value-add deals where forced appreciation can reset rents above the $1,603 median. A buy-and-hold investor using conventional financing at current rates should not expect this to cash-flow without a material discount to list price, a larger down payment, or both. The affordability index of 67 suggests the renter pool is reasonably broad relative to local incomes, which supports occupancy, but that alone does not fix the debt service math. Appreciation buyers will find the negative 0.32% price trend and the 48 appreciation score hard to get excited about, at least at this point in the cycle.

Duval County is home to Jacksonville, a metro of nearly one million people, which itself is the economic context. No specific economic anchors or employer data were provided for this analysis, but the scale of the population base (995,708) implies a diversified labor market with multiple demand drivers for rental housing, and that size generally reduces the single-employer concentration risk that plagues smaller Florida markets.

Monthly property taxes and insurance together run approximately $382, using a state-average effective property tax rate of 0.89% and an insurance rate of 0.67%. At that combined rate, the tax and insurance burden is tagged as normal relative to Florida peers, and neither figure is an unusual drag on its own. That said, Florida property insurance has been volatile in recent years, and the 0.67% rate is a state-average estimate; actual premiums in coastal or flood-zone portions of Duval could run materially higher. The $382 monthly carry figure is already baked into the estimated expenses of $561, but any investor underwriting coastal or riverside assets here should stress-test the insurance line independently. The property tax rate of 0.89% is a state-average estimate and county or township rates may differ, so pull the actual millage rate for any specific address before finalizing your model.

The main risks in Duval are concentration in a single metro and the current price-to-income dynamic. The affordability index of 67 is not a crisis level, but it is not cheap, and flat or declining prices suggest the market is digesting prior appreciation rather than setting up for a near-term run. Regulatory risk is not flagged by the provided data, but Florida statewide landlord-tenant law is generally investor-friendly. At a population approaching one million, demand concentration risk is low compared to smaller single-industry markets, but Jacksonville's exposure to defense, logistics, and financial services means a sector-specific downturn could soften rents faster than in a more diversified gateway city.

Compared to its neighbors, Duval ranks 11th out of 67 Florida counties on overall score at 58, which is a reasonable position for a major metro. The more instructive comparison is the rent-to-price ratio: Duval's 6.54% trails Putnam County's 7.79%, Escambia's 6.99%, and Santa Rosa's 6.91%, all of which also carry lower overall scores (57, 56, and 57 respectively). Putnam in particular offers a meaningfully better yield at a median price of only $210,747 and median rent of $1,369, which may pencil better on leverage despite a smaller renter pool. An investor should choose Duval over its neighbors when scale matters, when the business plan requires a deep tenant market and property management infrastructure, or when a value-add thesis depends on the liquidity and exit optionality that only a near-million-person metro provides. For pure cash-flow yield at lower basis, Putnam or Escambia deserve a parallel look before committing capital here.