Union County

Union County, Georgia sits at a 3.74% cap rate on a $390,940 median purchase price, with a gross rent-to-price ratio of 0.057, or about 5.7 cents of annual rent per dollar of asset. At a 6.85% financing rate, that spread is the core problem: the cap rate runs nearly 300 basis points below the cost of debt, and the model confirms it, showing a monthly cash flow of negative $832 and a cash-on-cash return of -11.1% on a $78,188 down payment. Home prices slipped 0.48% year-over-year, so this market is not compensating for negative leverage with appreciation momentum either. An affordability index of 46 out of 100 tells you the local buyer pool is stretched, which matters for exit liquidity. On the cash-flow-versus-appreciation spectrum, Union sits uncomfortably in the middle, scoring 56 on cash flow and 48 on appreciation, both mediocre, while ranking 27th percentile nationally out of 1,000 counties and 99th out of 159 Georgia counties. This is not a market where the numbers tilt clearly toward either strategy.

The negative cash-on-cash makes Union a difficult fit for a pure cash-flow buyer unless they are substantially over-equitied, say, buying with 50%+ down to eliminate enough debt service to reach breakeven. The appreciation score of 48 rules out a passive appreciation thesis without a specific catalyst. The most credible use case here is a value-add operator who can either increase rents meaningfully above the $1,872.5 median or acquire off-market below the $390,940 median price point. A buyer targeting $280,000-$320,000 acquisition prices, where the rent-to-price math improves materially, has a cleaner underwrite. At the median price with conventional financing, this county does not pencil for a leveraged buy-and-hold strategy under current rate conditions.

No economic anchors or employer data were provided for Union County, so demand-side job stability cannot be assessed from this data set. What the population figure of 24,880 does tell you is that this is a small county, and small-county rental markets carry concentration risk by definition. A renter pool this size means vacancy in a specific submarket or price tier can move your individual property metrics significantly. Rental demand here is not backstopped by the institutional employment base you would expect in a metropolitan county, and that is a real underwriting consideration regardless of what drives it.

Monthly combined tax and insurance runs $417 on this asset at a state-average effective property tax rate of 0.92%, with $300 per month in property tax and $117 in insurance. Georgia's state-average rate is in the normal range, not a red flag, but that caveat in the data is worth taking seriously: county and township rates in Georgia can differ from the state average, and Union County's actual millage rate should be confirmed before closing. The $417 monthly carry cost for tax and insurance is already baked into the $655 estimated expense figure, so it is not additive, but it does illustrate that even in a normal-tax state, carrying costs on a $390,000 asset absorb a meaningful slice of the $1,872.5 in gross rent before you get to mortgage, maintenance, and vacancy.

The comparison with neighboring counties is instructive. DeKalb County carries a 6.33% rent-to-price ratio versus Union's 5.75%, on a $334,013 median price that is $57,000 cheaper, with a median rent of $1,762. The lower absolute rent is more than offset by the better ratio and lower acquisition cost. Chatham County runs a 6.23% ratio at $339,736, and Glynn County sits at 5.93% on $355,910. All three of these higher-priced, urbanized alternatives outperform Union on the rent-to-price ratio despite costing less, which is counterintuitive but reflects Union's premium pricing relative to what the local rental market will bear. Marion and Charlton counties come in at $178,735 and $208,414 respectively, where the math on a cash-flow strategy can work at much lower dollar exposure, assuming rent levels hold. An investor choosing Union over these neighbors needs a specific thesis, a value-add play on a discounted acquisition, a short-term rental strategy where the data set does not apply, or a personal-use component. Without one of those, the neighboring counties offer better entry points for a standard leveraged rental strategy.