Adams County

Adams County prices at a median of $186,171 with a median rent of $1,059 per month, producing a rent-to-price ratio of 0.68% monthly, or roughly 8.2% annualized. That sits in a range that hints at cash flow potential but doesn't deliver it cleanly at today's financing costs. The model underwrite, using a 6.85% rate with 20% down, shows a cap rate of 4.44% and a cash-on-cash return of negative 8.07%, with estimated monthly cash flow of negative $288. The gap between the cap rate and the prevailing mortgage constant is the whole story here: the asset yield doesn't clear the financing hurdle. Home prices rose 6.58% year-over-year, and the appreciation score of 91 out of 100 reflects that momentum. The affordability index of 90 and an affordability score also at 90 tell you prices haven't run so far that future appreciation is structurally impaired. This is a market that scores better on price growth trajectory than on immediate income generation.

That profile fits an appreciation-oriented buyer more cleanly than a cash-flow operator. The cash flow score of 68 isn't disqualifying, but the live underwrite at current rates produces negative carry, which means a buyer here needs either a larger down payment, a below-market acquisition, or patience for rents to grow into the yield. An investor who can pay closer to 35-40% down, or who finds a property priced meaningfully below the median, changes the math materially. The affordability index of 90 suggests there is still room to find deals below $186,000, and at lower price points the rent-to-price ratio improves faster than the rent does. Value-add operators who can force appreciation through renovation also have a path here, given the 6.58% price appreciation trend supporting exit valuations. Pure cash-flow buyers who need day-one positive returns at conventional financing terms should look elsewhere in the data set.

The tax picture is a significant underwriting variable in Adams County. Using the Illinois state-average effective property tax rate of 2.27%, the estimated annual property tax on a median-priced purchase is $4,226, and combined with $503 in annual insurance, the monthly tax-and-insurance burden runs $394. That is a real number: on a property generating $1,059 in gross rent, tax and insurance alone consume 37% of the top line before debt service, maintenance, or vacancy. Illinois's property tax rate of 2.27% is flagged very high relative to national norms, and it deserves its own line on your underwrite. This is the single biggest structural drag on cash-on-cash returns in this market. Be aware that the 2.27% figure is a state-average estimate (Tax Foundation 2024) and actual Adams County or township rates may differ, so pulling the specific PIN-level tax bill before you close is non-negotiable.

The population of 65,583 makes Adams County a small market by national standards. No economic anchor data was provided, so employer concentration and job base depth cannot be assessed from this data. What the scores do reflect is a stability score of 50 out of 100, the weakest dimension in the county's profile, which is consistent with smaller Midwestern markets that carry meaningful exposure to any single employer or sector downturn. Investors should do independent diligence on the local employment base, particularly looking at healthcare, manufacturing, and any anchor institutions that typically sustain rental demand in counties this size. The stability score is a flag to investigate, not a disqualifier.

Among the five neighboring counties provided, Adams scores the same overall as Livingston (74) but at a meaningfully higher median price ($186,171 versus $160,375). Pike County at $112,450 and an overall score of 75 is the most interesting comparison: a slightly higher overall score at 40% lower price points, which likely produces better rent-to-price ratios and lower absolute tax exposure, though rent levels in Pike were not provided. Winnebago County is the one neighbor with both price and rent data: $195,413 median price, $1,212 median rent, and a rent-to-price ratio of 0.74% monthly versus Adams's 0.68%. Winnebago's higher rent yield at a comparable price point and a higher overall score of 75 makes it a serious alternative to evaluate in parallel. Woodford County, at $220,926 and an overall score of 72, is the most expensive neighbor with the lowest overall score in the peer set. Adams makes more sense than Woodford on price-to-score efficiency. The case for choosing Adams over its neighbors comes down to the 6.58% appreciation trend and the 91 appreciation score: if your thesis is price growth over a five-to-seven year hold in an affordable Illinois market, Adams's momentum gives you a cleaner fundamental story than the lower-priced counties in this peer group, provided you can absorb or minimize the negative carry during the hold.