Crawford County

Crawford County sits at a median home price of $129,154, which puts it squarely in the affordable tier of Illinois markets. The affordability index scores a perfect 100, and at a 19th-percentile national ranking among the 1,000 counties tracked here, the market is cheap on an absolute basis. That affordability, however, does not automatically translate into investor returns: the cash flow score registers at zero and the cap rate field returns zero, meaning the available data does not support a positive yield at current rent levels relative to purchase price and carry costs. The appreciation story is equally thin, with a cash flow score of 0, an appreciation score of 7 out of 100, and a year-over-year home price decline of 9.1%. A market that is both losing value and generating negligible cash flow is not a market you underwrite on hope.

The investor profile that would consider Crawford is a very specific one. A deep value-add operator who can acquire below the $129,154 median, force appreciation through renovation, and either flip or hold at a restructured basis has the clearest path here. A pure cash-flow buyer running a straightforward buy-and-hold at market prices is not supported by the numbers, given the zero cash-flow score. An appreciation buyer has almost no case: a 7/100 appreciation score combined with a 9.1% price decline in the trailing year signals a market contracting, not compressing. The affordability index of 100 is a real data point, but affordability without rent support or price growth is a ceiling on returns, not a floor.

The data provided does not include economic anchors or employer names for Crawford County, so no inference about job base or institutional demand drivers can be made here. What the population figure does tell you is that at 18,729 residents, this is a small, thinly traded county. Thin markets mean limited buyer pools when you go to exit, limited rental demand depth, and higher sensitivity to any single employer or demographic shift. That does not make it uninvestable, but it does mean your hold period and exit strategy need to be stress-tested against a scenario where the buyer or renter pool shrinks further.

The carry cost picture deserves direct attention. Illinois's state-average effective property tax rate on this data set is 2.27%, flagged as very high, and at $129,154 in purchase price that produces an estimated $2,932 in annual property taxes. Combined with $349 in annual insurance, the monthly tax-and-insurance burden alone comes to $273. On a small rental property, that $273 is a real line item before you've paid a dollar of mortgage, maintenance, or vacancy. At 2.27%, the state-average rate is high enough to deserve its own line on your underwrite and should be verified at the county and township level before you finalize any pro forma, since actual rates in Crawford County may differ materially from the state average. The note in this data set is explicit on that point: these are Tax Foundation 2024 state-average estimates.

The risk profile here concentrates in three areas the data does support. First, population scale: 18,729 people is a shallow rental pool, and any outmigration accelerates vacancy risk faster than it would in a larger market. Second, price trajectory: a 9.1% year-over-year decline is not a rounding error, and in a thin market it can reflect structural demand loss rather than a cyclical correction. Third, the Illinois tax environment is a systemic risk across the state, not specific to Crawford, but at 2.27% it compresses cap rates statewide and makes Illinois a harder pencil than neighboring Midwestern states with lower effective rates.

Compared to the neighbors in this data set, Crawford scores an overall 48 out of 100. Greene County scores 65 at a median of $106,001, which is actually cheaper than Crawford, and that higher score at a lower price point suggests Greene may offer better risk-adjusted positioning for a value buyer. DuPage County scores 66 with a median of $416,478 and a gross rent-to-price ratio of 0.588%, which is a completely different market serving a different capital stack. Monroe County at a 59 overall with a rent-to-price ratio of 0.047 gives a buyer more price-to-rent data to work with than Crawford's missing figures. Calhoun County at 61 overall and $184,783 median scores meaningfully higher than Crawford despite the price premium. The straightforward read is that Crawford's combination of price decline, zero cash-flow score, very high tax burden, and thin population does not compete favorably against Greene or Calhoun for an investor seeking the best risk-return entry point in this part of Illinois. The only scenario where Crawford wins the allocation is if a specific below-market deal surfaces at a basis low enough to offset the structural headwinds the county-level data describes.