Greene County

Greene County prices a median home at $104,523, down 1.2% year-over-year, which puts it in genuinely rare affordability territory, scoring a perfect 100 on that dimension. The problem is that the cash flow score is zero. Without rent or cap rate figures in the dataset, no yield can be confirmed, and any investor running numbers here is working with a major unknown. What the data does tell you is that a $104,523 purchase price financed at 6.85% with 20% down produces a mortgage around $550 per month before taxes, insurance, or any operating costs. That carry burden is low in absolute dollar terms, but the tax and insurance burden is not, and that matters enormously when rent is unconfirmed. The appreciation score of 44 out of 100 and a slightly negative home price trend suggest this is not a market pricing in future growth. Greene sits at the 62nd national percentile overall and ranks 70th out of 102 Illinois counties, which frames it as a mid-pack county with exceptional affordability but unproven income potential.

The investor this market might suit is a deep-value buyer willing to accept yield uncertainty in exchange for the lowest entry cost in the dataset. At $104,523, the dollar exposure is minimal, and any rent above roughly $800 to $900 per month would produce positive cash flow after mortgage service. The stability score of 50 is middling, which rules out Greene as a core, long-term hold for investors who need predictable income. An appreciation buyer has even less case here given the negative price trend and population of 12,015. The value-add operator is the most plausible buyer, specifically someone who can acquire distressed assets at or below median, force equity through renovation, and either hold for cash flow or flip, without depending on market appreciation to make the numbers work.

The property tax situation is the single most important underwriting variable in this county and cannot be soft-pedaled. Illinois carries a state-average effective property tax rate of 2.27%, flagged in this dataset as very high, and that estimate comes with an honest caveat: it is a state-average figure from Tax Foundation 2024 data, and actual county or township rates in Greene may differ materially. On a $104,523 home, 2.27% produces $2,373 in annual property taxes. Add $282 in estimated annual insurance and you arrive at $221 per month in tax and insurance alone before mortgage, management, maintenance, or vacancy. On a home in this price range, $221 per month is not a footnote, it is roughly 25 to 30 cents of every dollar of likely rent. Any investor underwriting Greene County must model this figure explicitly. If county-level rates run higher than the state average, as they frequently do in Illinois, the cash flow case deteriorates further.

The risks here are concentrated and structural. A population of 12,015 means the rental demand pool is small and any meaningful economic disruption, whether an employer exit or demographic outflow, moves the needle fast. The affordability index at 100 reflects low prices relative to incomes, but that same relationship can reflect stagnant incomes or population decline rather than opportunity. The data provides no economic anchors or employer base information for Greene County, so job stability cannot be assessed from this dataset, which is itself a data point. Markets with strong employment anchors tend to generate that information. The negative year-over-year price change, even if modest at 1.2%, is consistent with a market where demand is not outpacing supply.

The neighbor comparison sharpens the picture. Adams County, with a median price of $174,680, a median rent of $981, and a rent-to-price ratio of 6.74%, scores 68 overall and offers something Greene cannot yet confirm: a documented yield. Adams also has more people and likely more economic activity given its position as home to Quincy. Bond County scores 67 at $154,738 with no confirmed rent figures but still outscores Greene overall. DuPage County at $416,478 and a rent-to-price ratio of 5.88% is a fundamentally different asset class targeting a different investor. Monroe County's ratio of 4.70% at $327,942 is the weakest yield among the neighbors with available rent data. The case for choosing Greene over Adams is purely one of entry price: $104,523 versus $174,680 is a $70,000 gap that matters if you are deploying limited capital or testing an unfamiliar market. The case for choosing Adams over Greene is that the yield is documented. Until Greene's rental market can be underwritten with actual rent comparables, Adams is the more defensible buy for an investor who needs confirmed cash flow to justify the Illinois tax burden.