Cumberland County

Cumberland County sits at a median home price of $167,393 with 7.81% year-over-year appreciation, which is the headline number that defines this market. The affordability index of 94 and the appreciation score of 94 out of 100 tell a consistent story: prices are moving fast relative to local income levels, and the market has already caught the attention of the tool's ranking methodology, placing Cumberland 4th nationally out of 1,000 counties scored. What is conspicuously absent from the data is a cap rate, a cash-flow figure, and a rent estimate, all of which score at zero. That is not a data gap to shrug off. It means there is no modeled rental income to underwrite against the purchase price, which places Cumberland squarely on the appreciation end of the cash-flow versus appreciation spectrum with essentially no documented cash-flow case to make at this time.

The investor this market suits is one who is buying price movement, not yield. A 7.81% annualized price gain on a $167,393 asset is meaningful in dollar terms, roughly $13,000 in equity per year if the rate holds, and the affordability index of 94 suggests the entry point has not yet priced out local buyers who would eventually support continued demand. The cash-flow score of zero disqualifies Cumberland for any investor whose model depends on the property servicing itself from rent. Value-add operators face the same problem: without a rent figure in the data, there is no spread to calculate between current rents and market-rate potential. If your underwrite requires day-one cash flow at a 6.85% interest rate on a $167,393 purchase with 20% down, this county does not provide the numbers to support it.

The economic context for Cumberland is limited in the provided data. No employer anchors or economy notes were supplied, which is itself a signal worth taking seriously for a county of 10,447 people. At that population size, rental demand is inherently narrow. A single employer closing or a demographic shift of even a few hundred households can move vacancy rates materially. The stability score of 50 out of 100 is consistent with this concern: the market is scoring well on price momentum and affordability, but the underlying economic foundation either lacks diversification or lacks the data to confirm it.

Property taxes deserve a dedicated line on any underwrite here. Illinois carries a state-average effective property tax rate of 2.27%, flagged as very high in the underlying data, and on a $167,393 purchase that translates to $3,800 per year in estimated taxes. Combined with $452 in estimated annual insurance, the monthly tax-and-insurance burden runs approximately $354 before a single dollar of mortgage principal, interest, maintenance, or vacancy is counted. At a 6.85% rate on an $167,393 purchase with 20% down, that carry cost alone is enough to make cash-flow neutral outcomes difficult unless rents are meaningfully above what the purchase price would imply at typical gross rent multipliers. The honest caveat from the data source applies here: 2.27% is a state-average estimate from Tax Foundation 2024, and actual Cumberland County or township-level rates may differ, so pull the county assessor's numbers before closing any pro forma.

The comparison to neighboring counties sharpens the picture. Vermilion County is the only neighbor with rent data, showing a median rent of $815 on a median home price of $93,310, producing a rent-to-price ratio of 10.49% annualized, which is a materially stronger cash-flow setup than anything Cumberland's price point implies. Massac ($112,844), Marshall ($131,595), and Richland ($132,577) all come in meaningfully cheaper than Cumberland's $167,393 while carrying the same overall score of 80 or 81. Menard County at $198,736 is the only neighbor priced higher, also at 80. The case for choosing Cumberland over its neighbors rests entirely on the 7.81% appreciation rate and the #4 national ranking, because on price-point alone the neighboring counties offer lower entry costs at equivalent scores. An investor who prioritizes capital gains and can tolerate undefined cash flow, a very high tax burden, and a thin rental market in a 10,447-person county should look hard at Cumberland. An investor who needs the rent check to cover the mortgage should start with Vermilion.