Douglas County

Douglas County, Illinois scores 80 overall and lands at the 99th percentile nationally, ranking 7th out of 1,000 counties in this dataset. The median home price sits at $162,196, up 6.8% year-over-year, and the affordability index of 95 confirms that entry prices remain accessible relative to local incomes. The appreciation score of 91 is the headline number here. The cash-flow score, however, is 0, and the cap rate, cash-on-cash return, and estimated monthly cash flow are all reported as zero. That combination tells you exactly where this market sits on the spectrum: it skews heavily toward price appreciation rather than immediate income, and any investor underwriting a yield-driven deal should treat the absence of positive cash-flow metrics as a direct signal rather than a data gap.

The appreciation score of 91 paired with a median price of $162,196 makes Douglas County a credible target for the buy-and-hold investor whose primary thesis is equity accumulation at an affordable entry point. At 6.8% annual price growth, a $162,196 purchase adds roughly $11,000 in value per year at the current pace, and the low entry price keeps the dollar amount of the required down payment at $32,439 on a conventional 20% structure. That is a relatively small capital commitment for a market ranking in the 99th percentile nationally. The profile does not suit a cash-flow buyer looking to cover carry costs from day-one rent checks. The stability score of 50 is middling, which matters for appreciation buyers too: a market that appreciates well but shows moderate stability deserves a longer hold-period assumption, not a flip mentality. Value-add operators who can manufacture equity through renovation may find the low median price and 6.8% tailwind useful, but they should not expect levered cash flow to carry the asset during a repositioning period.

The tax and insurance picture at this price point is the most consequential underwriting variable in Douglas County. The state-average effective property tax rate for Illinois is 2.27%, which is very high, and at the $162,196 purchase price that translates to $3,682 in annual property taxes. Add $438 in estimated annual insurance and the combined monthly carry for tax and insurance alone is $343. That figure deserves its own line on any underwrite: at 2.27% the Illinois state-average rate is high enough that it will compress or eliminate cash flow on most leveraged deals in this price range, and it is the primary mechanical reason the cash-flow score registers at zero. The caveat worth keeping in your model is that 2.27% is a state-average estimate per Tax Foundation 2024 data, and actual Douglas County or township-level rates may differ materially in either direction. Pull the county assessor's current millage rate before finalizing any projection.

The specific risks here cluster around two factors. First, the population of 19,714 means this is a small, concentrated market. A single large employer reducing headcount, or any meaningful out-migration, would affect vacancy and rent levels across a thin rental pool with limited absorption capacity. The stability score of 50 is consistent with that concentration risk. Second, Illinois as a state carries well-documented fiscal stress at the state and municipal level, and that environment is one reason the property tax rate is where it is. There is no reason to assume the tax burden improves over a typical five-to-seven year hold; budget it as a permanent structural cost, not a temporary condition.

Compared to its neighbors in this dataset, Douglas County carries the highest median home price at $162,196 and ties for the highest overall score at 80 alongside Richland County and Menard County. Massac County ($112,844, score 81) and Marshall County ($131,595, score 81) both score marginally higher and price meaningfully lower, which could produce better cash-flow dynamics if their tax profiles are more favorable. Menard County at $198,736 is the priciest neighbor and shares an 80 score, making it a harder entry for the same overall quality. An investor should choose Douglas over its neighbors specifically when the thesis is appreciation at a manageable entry cost and a 99th-percentile national ranking justifies the premium over Massac or Marshall. If the goal is positive monthly cash flow, the lower price points in Massac or Marshall warrant a closer look at their respective carry costs before dismissing them.