Edgar County

Edgar County prices a median home at $107,292, which on its face looks like a screaming entry point. The affordability index hits 100, the county ranks in the 49th percentile nationally across 1,000 counties, and the sheer cheapness of the asset makes the math feel like it should work. The problem is that the investment estimate returns zeros across every return metric: cap rate, cash-on-cash, and estimated cash flow all come back at 0. That is not a rounding artifact to wave off. It signals that the rent level relative to expenses, including a $227 monthly tax and insurance burden, cannot clear the bar even at a $107K purchase price. The year-over-year price movement of negative 3.1% reinforces the picture: this is a market where capital is not being preserved, let alone compounded through appreciation. The appreciation score of 35 out of 100 confirms this is not a market anyone should underwrite expecting price gains to bail out thin operations.

The cash flow score is 0 out of 100. That number does the heavy lifting in terms of telling you who this market suits: almost nobody buying on fundamentals today. At a 6.85% interest rate on a $107K asset with a $21,458 down payment, the math still cannot produce positive cash flow once operating costs are layered in, which tells you that local rents are running very low in absolute terms. A cash-flow buyer needs rents to cover mortgage, taxes, insurance, maintenance, and vacancy at a minimum. Edgar is not delivering that. An appreciation buyer faces negative trailing price movement and a stability score of only 50, which does not suggest mean-reversion toward growth. A value-add operator might find opportunities if they can force rents upward through renovation in a low-rent market, but that thesis requires a local rent ceiling high enough to absorb the added basis, and nothing in the data suggests that ceiling exists here.

The property tax situation deserves its own line on any underwrite. Illinois carries a state-average effective rate of 2.27%, which flags as very high, and at that rate the annual tax bill on a $107,292 home runs to $2,436, or roughly $203 per month before you add a dime of insurance. Combined with the $24 monthly insurance estimate, the tax-and-insurance load alone hits $227 per month. On an asset this cheap, that burden is proportionally punishing. To put it plainly: the carrying cost from taxes and insurance represents a meaningful share of what the gross rent on a small-market Illinois rental would likely generate. The Tax Foundation figures used here are a state-average estimate, and actual county or township rates in Edgar may differ, but investors should pull the precise Edgar County levy before proceeding because any upward deviation from 2.27% makes an already difficult return profile worse.

No economic anchors are provided in the data, so employer concentration and demand drivers cannot be assessed here. What the population figure does indicate is scale: at 16,852 residents, Edgar County is a small rural market. Small populations create thin rental demand, limited liquidity when you need to exit, and high sensitivity to any single employer downturn or demographic outflow. The negative home price trend could reflect exactly that kind of slow population erosion, though the data does not confirm the cause. The stability score of 50 reflects this ambiguity.

Compared to neighboring counties, Edgar sits at an overall score of 59, which is below Bond County at 67, DuPage County at 66, and Greene County at 65. Greene County is the most direct comparison: median home price of $106,001 is nearly identical to Edgar's $107,292, yet Greene scores 65 overall versus Edgar's 59. That six-point gap at the same price point suggests Greene offers better return characteristics for roughly the same capital outlay. An investor drawn to this price range in Illinois should look at Greene before Edgar. DuPage County scores 66 with a rent-to-price ratio of 0.0588, which is a materially better yield signal, though its median price of $416,478 requires a very different capital commitment. Monroe County, at a 0.0470 rent-to-price ratio and $327,942 median, also outscores Edgar at the same overall rank of 59, but with far more capital at risk. The case for choosing Edgar over any of these neighbors comes down to one scenario: an investor who has identified a specific off-market asset in Edgar where the actual rent significantly exceeds what the county median implies. The county-level data does not support Edgar as a screened target; only a deal-specific analysis showing rents that the averages are missing would change that conclusion.