Livingston County

Livingston County's median home price of $172,343 and a 10.9% year-over-year appreciation figure tell a clear story: this is a market that has been moving, and it sits meaningfully on the appreciation side of the cash-flow versus appreciation spectrum. The affordability index of 93 confirms the entry price is still accessible relative to income, and the national ranking of 74th out of 1,000 counties (91st percentile) gives this market real credibility as a buy-and-hold target. That said, the cash-flow score of 0 is a hard signal worth taking seriously. Without a published cap rate or rent-to-price ratio in the data, any cash-flow projection requires investor-sourced rent comps, and the model is not assigning any score to that dimension, which means the numbers as supplied do not support an assumption of day-one positive cash flow at current prices and a 6.85% interest rate.

The investor profile this market suits is someone tilting toward appreciation and long-term equity accumulation rather than immediate cash-flow yield. The 10.9% price growth rate is the kind of number that rewards a patient hold, and the $172,343 median keeps the dollar amount of that appreciation meaningful without requiring institutional-scale capital. Cash-flow buyers will struggle to make a pencil-in deal without finding assets priced materially below the median or accepting thin-to-negative spreads at today's rates. Value-add operators have a potential path if they can acquire distressed assets below the median and force appreciation through rehab, then refinance or sell into a market that has demonstrated sustained upward price pressure, but again, rent data needs to be sourced locally before underwriting that strategy.

The property tax situation in Illinois is the single most important carry-cost variable in this analysis, and it deserves a dedicated line on every underwrite. Using the state-average effective rate of 2.27% (Tax Foundation 2024, with the honest caveat that county and township rates in Illinois can differ materially from this figure), the estimated annual property tax on a $172,343 acquisition is approximately $3,912. Combined with estimated annual insurance of $465 at a 0.27% rate, the combined monthly tax and insurance burden is $365. At a 6.85% interest rate on an 80% LTV loan, that $365 figure represents a substantial fixed cost that must be covered before any net operating income is realized. Illinois's property tax burden is not a nuance; at 2.27% it is very high relative to national norms and should be modeled conservatively before assuming any deal works. Investors accustomed to operating in lower-tax states will find their mental math needs significant adjustment here.

The stability score of 50 is a genuine flag. A market can appreciate and still carry meaningful risk around tenant demand consistency, and a midpoint stability score in a county of 35,771 residents suggests concentration risk: a small population base means that any contraction in a dominant employer, an institutional anchor, or a demographic trend has outsized impact on occupancy and rent sustainability. No economic anchor data was provided for Livingston, so no specific employer concentration risk can be named, but any investor underwriting this market should independently verify what is driving the employment base and how diversified it is before committing capital.

On the neighbor comparison, Livingston's position is instructive. Pike County at $112,450 and McDonough County at $92,986 are considerably cheaper, and McDonough in particular shows a rent-to-price ratio of 0.121, which is a materially better gross yield profile than what Livingston's current pricing implies. McDonough's overall score of 76 edges Livingston's 74 despite the lower price point, suggesting a cash-flow-oriented investor may find better day-one economics there. Winnebago County at $195,413 and a rent-to-price ratio of 0.074 is closer in price but offers a larger population base and presumably deeper tenant demand. Woodford County at $220,926 and an overall score of 72 is both pricier and lower-ranked, making it the weakest comparative case. Livingston is the right choice over its neighbors when an investor's primary thesis is appreciation capture at a sub-$175,000 entry point with an affordability index of 93 supporting continued demand, and when they are disciplined enough to model the Illinois property tax load honestly and still find a deal that works.