McDonough County

McDonough County sits at the extreme cash-flow end of the buy-and-hold spectrum. A median home price of $99,184 against median rent of $918.75 produces a rent-to-price ratio of 11.1%, which is roughly three times what you'd see in a typical appreciation-driven market. The model underwrite pencils at a 7.22% cap rate on a $99,184 purchase, with monthly mortgage of $520 at 6.85%, estimated expenses of $322, and net cash flow of $77 per month after a 20% down payment, translating to a 4.05% cash-on-cash return. Home price appreciation was essentially flat at 0.5% year-over-year, and the appreciation score of 55 out of 100 confirms this is not a market you buy for equity growth. You buy it because the rent-to-price math is rare, and the county scores 100 out of 100 on both cash flow and affordability, placing it in the 95th percentile nationally out of 1,000 counties ranked.

The investor this market suits is a disciplined cash-flow buyer or a value-add operator hunting low acquisition costs. At $99,184 median, your capital outlay is small enough that even modest improvements can meaningfully reposition a unit. The affordability index of 100 suggests locals can pay the rents the market produces without being stretched, which supports occupancy rather than undermining it. The appreciation buyer, however, has almost no case here: 0.5% annual price growth barely keeps pace with inflation, and the stability score of 50 reflects a market that holds rather than climbs. If your return thesis depends on forced appreciation through a hot resale market, McDonough is the wrong county.

The property tax picture is the most significant underwriting variable in this deal and deserves a dedicated line on your model. Illinois carries a state-average effective property tax rate of 2.27%, flagged as very high, and on a $99,184 home that translates to approximately $2,251 per year. Combined with estimated annual insurance of $268, the combined monthly tax-and-insurance burden runs $210. On a gross rent of $918.75, that $210 alone represents 22.9% of revenue before you touch mortgage, maintenance, or vacancy. The $322 in estimated monthly expenses in the model already incorporates this figure, but you should stress-test it independently because county and township rates in Illinois frequently diverge from the state average, sometimes materially higher. The note accompanying the data is explicit that this is a state-average estimate. Pull the actual assessor data for any specific parcel before you close.

McDonough County's specific risks stem from its size and character. At a population of 27,370, the rental pool is narrow by definition. Western Illinois University, located in Macomb (the county seat), is almost certainly the dominant economic driver in a county this size, though the data does not provide explicit employer detail. University-anchored markets can generate consistent rental demand from students and staff, but they carry concentration risk: enrollment trends, university budget decisions, or program cuts can shift vacancy quickly. A county this small also has thin transaction volume, meaning comparable sales data is sparse, appraisals can be tricky, and finding a buyer if you need to exit is slower than in a metro market.

Compared to its neighbors, McDonough's rent-to-price ratio of 11.1% is in a different category entirely. Sangamon County, which includes Springfield, shows a median home price of $186,233 and rent of $1,129, producing a rent-to-price ratio of 7.3%. Winnebago County (Rockford) prices at $195,413 with rent of $1,212, good for a 7.4% ratio. Both are meaningfully stronger markets by population and economic diversity, and both carry identical overall scores of 76, same as McDonough. Pike County is cheaper at $112,450 but carries a lower overall score of 75 with no rent data provided, leaving its cash-flow profile harder to underwrite. Clinton and Shelby counties lack published rent figures in this dataset as well. The case for choosing McDonough over Sangamon or Winnebago is purely about entry price and rent-to-price efficiency: you get a 50% lower purchase price and a ratio nearly four points higher, which compresses your capital at risk per door. The case against it, relative to those neighbors, is population scale and economic diversification. If you can tolerate concentration risk and you are building a portfolio of multiple small-market doors rather than placing a large single bet, McDonough's numbers are difficult to match in Illinois.