Shelby County

Shelby County sits at a median home price of $170,739, up 5.46% year-over-year, with an affordability index of 93 out of 100. That combination places it in the 98th percentile nationally out of 1,000 counties scored, and 22nd within Illinois. The appreciation score of 87 is the standout metric here. The cash flow score, however, comes in at zero, and the cap rate and cash-on-cash return fields carry no data, which tells you something important: this is not a county where the rent-to-price math pencils easily at current financing rates. With a 6.85% interest rate on a 20% down purchase at $170,739, the monthly mortgage alone is a real burden before you layer on operating costs. Investors who need day-one yield will not find it here on the numbers provided.

The appreciation score of 87 makes this a natural fit for the patient buy-and-hold investor who is underwriting for equity accumulation rather than immediate income. The affordability index of 93 means entry prices are accessible relative to incomes, which supports steady demand and limits downside risk during corrections. A value-add operator could find opportunities given the low absolute price point of $170,739, where a light rehab can move values meaningfully in percentage terms, but without rent data provided for Shelby itself, underwriting a specific value-add spread is not possible from this data alone. Cash flow buyers should look elsewhere until the rent picture is clearer or financing rates compress.

The tax and insurance picture is a genuine underwriting concern that deserves its own line item before you commit. Using the Illinois state-average effective rate from Tax Foundation 2024 data, property taxes on a $170,739 purchase run approximately $3,876 annually, and insurance adds another $461, putting combined monthly carry at $361 before mortgage, maintenance, or management. At a 2.27% effective rate, Illinois ranks among the highest property tax states in the country, and that is not a rounding error at this price point. It meaningfully compresses any cash flow margin. Worth flagging: this is a state-average estimate, and actual Shelby County or township-level rates may differ, so pull the county assessor's numbers before finalizing any underwrite. If the county rate diverges upward from the state average, the cash flow picture gets worse. If it diverges downward, there is a potential tailwind.

The stability score of 50 is the risk flag that demands attention. A population of 21,042 in a rural Illinois county means the rental demand base is narrow. Concentration risk is real: a single large employer contraction or a wave of out-migration can move vacancy rates sharply in a small market. No economic anchor data was provided, so employer-specific demand drivers cannot be assessed here, but the population size alone signals that an investor should independently verify what is sustaining the local economy before committing capital. Rural Illinois counties have faced long-term demographic headwinds in various pockets of the state, and a stability score of 50 suggests this market is not immune to that dynamic.

Compared to the neighboring counties in this dataset, Shelby holds a higher median home price than Iroquois ($149,561), Bureau ($143,471), Edwards ($124,765), and Peoria ($154,382), while matching Saint Clair's price closely at $173,515. Among the two neighbors with rent data available, Peoria County shows a gross rent-to-price ratio of 0.91% monthly (annualized roughly 10.9%), and Saint Clair County comes in at 0.84% monthly. Those ratios imply meaningfully better cash flow math in both Peoria and Saint Clair at lower or comparable price points, which is why a yield-focused buyer should look hard at Peoria County in particular before landing on Shelby. You choose Shelby over its neighbors when you believe its appreciation trajectory, supported by that 87 appreciation score and 5.46% YoY price growth, outpaces what the neighbors can deliver, and when you are willing to carry the Illinois tax burden through a hold period measured in years rather than quarters. The 98th percentile national ranking for overall score suggests the model sees something in Shelby's combination of affordability and price momentum, but the zero cash flow score is a clear signal that this market rewards the long-game investor, not the operator hunting for immediate returns.