Scott County

Scott County's headline numbers tell a split personality story. At a median home price of $250,205 and median rent of $1,041, the gross rent-to-price ratio comes in at 0.50% monthly, or roughly 5.0% annualized. That puts Scott squarely in appreciation territory rather than cash-flow territory. The cap rate at 3.25% confirms this: you are not buying yield here, you are buying price growth. The market's 5.28% year-over-year home price appreciation backs that up, and the appreciation score of 87 out of 100 is the single most useful number in this data set for understanding what Scott County actually is. Run the standard leveraged underwrite at 6.85% on an 80% LTV loan and the picture sharpens further: estimated monthly cash flow is negative $634, producing a cash-on-cash return of -13.22%. This is not a rounding error or a borderline market. At current rates and prices, Scott County does not pencil for a traditional buy-and-hold cash-flow investor without a meaningful equity event or rent-growth thesis carrying the weight.

That framing makes the target buyer profile fairly narrow. An appreciation buyer with a long hold horizon and the balance sheet to carry negative monthly cash flow can find a legitimate case here: 5.28% annual price appreciation on a $250,000 asset is $13,200 in equity per year, which partially offsets the cash drag. The affordability index of 76 and median price of $250,205 suggest the market is not yet priced at the extreme end, leaving some room for continued appreciation without requiring heroic assumptions. A value-add operator willing to force equity through renovation might improve the rent side enough to reduce the cash burn, but the entry point is not cheap enough to manufacture a cap rate that covers debt service at today's rates. Cash-flow buyers looking for month-one positive returns should look elsewhere in this data set entirely.

Iowa's Quad Cities anchors Scott County's rental demand, and the economic picture is worth understanding in that context. The county seat of Davenport is part of a metro that straddles the Iowa-Illinois border, which means the labor market and employer base extend beyond county lines. The county's population of 174,315 is large enough by Iowa standards to support diversified rental demand across multiple tenant profiles, from entry-level workers to mid-income renters priced out of ownership. The 5.28% home price appreciation suggests demand for housing is outpacing supply, which historically sustains rent levels even when cash-flow math is unfavorable for buyers.

The tax and insurance carry costs deserve their own line on any underwrite for this market. At Iowa's state-average effective property tax rate of 1.53%, which is flagged as high and is high enough to be a real underwriting consideration, the annual property tax on a $250,205 purchase runs approximately $3,828. Add $851 in estimated annual insurance, and the combined monthly tax and insurance burden is $390. That $390 is embedded in the $364 estimated monthly expenses figure, and it represents a fixed cost drag that does not compress when rents are flat. Worth noting: the 1.53% rate is a state-average estimate per the Tax Foundation's 2024 data, and actual Scott County or township-level rates may differ materially. Pull the county assessor's data before closing, not after.

The primary risks here are concentration and rate sensitivity. Negative $634 monthly cash flow at 6.85% means the investment thesis lives or dies on appreciation and, eventually, rate relief through a refinance. If either stalls, the carrying cost becomes a sustained liability. The stability score of 50 out of 100 suggests the market is not particularly defensive, which matters if a local employment disruption hits rental demand. There is no vacancy or regulatory data in this data set to assess those risks more precisely, but the low stability score warrants attention when sizing positions.

Compared to its neighbors, Scott County is the appreciation bet in a field of value plays. Jasper County at $233,695 median price and a 0.488% monthly rent-to-price ratio is slightly cheaper with marginally weaker rent yield, producing a nearly identical overall score of 64 versus Scott's 63. Lee County at $117,640 and Keokuk County at $139,177 are deeply affordable markets where cash-flow math almost certainly works better on paper, though both carry population and liquidity risks that Scott does not. Madison County at $328,942 is the priciest neighbor and scores 65, suggesting marginally better overall characteristics but at a meaningfully higher entry cost. An investor should choose Scott over its neighbors specifically when the primary objective is price appreciation in a mid-size Iowa market with a diversified tenant base, and when the investor can absorb negative carry for multiple years while waiting for either rate compression or rent growth to close the gap.