Johnson County

Johnson County, Kentucky sits at a median home price of $139,906, which has dropped 9.4% year over year. That price decline is the first number a serious buyer should sit with, because it cuts both ways: entry is cheap in absolute terms, but the market is telling you something about demand. The affordability index hits the ceiling at 100, which confirms homes are priced within reach of local incomes, yet the cash flow and appreciation scores both register near zero (0 and 6, respectively). With a cap rate and cash-on-cash return both reported as zero in the current model, this is not a market generating obvious day-one returns at prevailing financing costs. At a 6.85% interest rate on a $139,906 purchase with $27,981 down, the debt service math is tight enough that rent levels in this county are not clearing the hurdle at scale.

The scores make the investor profile clear. Cash flow buyers get almost nothing from this market as currently priced and financed: the cash flow score of 0 is not a rounding issue, it reflects a genuine gap between achievable rents and operating costs at today's rates. Appreciation buyers are equally underserved, with a score of 6 out of 100 and a price trajectory already moving negative. The stability score of 50 suggests the market is neither falling apart nor building momentum. The most credible use case here is a value-add operator with access to off-market acquisition below even these already-depressed medians, or a buyer who can pay cash or bring substantial equity to eliminate the debt service drag. At $139,906 median, there is theoretically room to buy distressed assets meaningfully below that number, which is where the affordability score of 100 and the price compression might finally create a workable spread.

No economic anchor data was provided for Johnson County, so specific employer commentary is not possible here. What the population figure does say is that at 22,631 residents, this is a small, rural market. Small markets carry concentration risk by definition: a single plant closure or institutional employer exit can move vacancy rates in ways that larger metros absorb. That context matters when sizing a portfolio allocation to this county versus treating it as a primary market.

On carry costs, the combined monthly tax and insurance figure comes to $139, based on a state-average property tax rate of 0.86% and an insurance rate of 0.33%. The 0.86% rate carries a "normal" flag, meaning it is neither a tailwind nor a meaningful drag relative to other Kentucky counties, though as with any state-average estimate, actual county and township assessments can deviate, and that number deserves verification against the Johnson County assessor before closing. The $139 monthly figure is manageable in isolation, but when layered onto a mortgage payment at 6.85% on an $112,000 loan balance, every dollar of fixed cost matters in a market where rents are not generating positive modeled cash flow.

The primary risk here is demand thinness in a small, declining-price market. A 9.4% year-over-year price drop in a county of 22,631 people signals limited buyer competition, which can benefit an acquirer but also signals that the exit when you want to sell or refinance may be constrained. No vacancy or demographic data was provided, so specific concentration risk beyond market size cannot be quantified, but the combination of population scale and negative price momentum warrants caution on holding periods and exit assumptions.

Against its neighbors, Johnson County's $139,906 median sits in the middle of the range. Crittenden County ($119,603, score 48) and Muhlenberg County ($132,697, score 46) offer lower entry points, and Crittenden actually scores one point higher overall. Estill County ($124,506, score 45) is cheaper still but scores below Johnson. Marshall County ($204,272, score 46) is the priciest neighbor and scores lower, suggesting its premium is not translating into better investment metrics. Whitley County ($148,725, score 47) matches Johnson's overall score at a slightly higher price. The honest read is that the entire peer group clusters between scores of 45 and 48, meaning no single county in this set is distinguishing itself as a clearly superior buy-and-hold market. You would choose Johnson over neighbors primarily on a deal-specific basis, such as finding a specific asset priced well below the median, rather than because the county-level data points to a structural advantage.