Marshall County

Marshall County, Kentucky sits at a 3.82% cap rate with a gross rent-to-price ratio of 0.49% per month (5.87% annualized), which places it squarely in appreciation-country territory on paper, except the appreciation score is 10 out of 100 and home prices fell 7.36% year-over-year. That combination, a compressed yield with no offsetting price growth, is the central problem here. The model underwrite at a $199,177 purchase price, 20% down, and 6.85% financing produces a monthly mortgage of $1,044 against $975 in median rent, generating negative cash flow of $410 per month and a cash-on-cash return of -10.74%. This is not a rounding-error shortfall; it is a structural one. The affordability index of 87 means the market is cheaper than most, but cheap alone does not fix a yield that cannot service debt at current rates.

The numbers point toward a very narrow investor profile. A cash-flow buyer using conventional financing is priced out by the math above. An appreciation buyer has no recent trend to stand on, with prices down more than 7% over the past year and an appreciation score sitting at the bottom decile nationally. The scenario where Marshall County makes sense is for an all-cash or low-leverage buyer who can compress the break-even point by eliminating or dramatically reducing debt service, or a value-add operator who can push rents meaningfully above the $975 median, since the rent-to-price ratio improves quickly if acquisition cost is discounted below the median. At $150,000 with the same $975 rent, the gross yield moves to 7.8%, which starts to pencil differently. The stability score of 50 and overall score of 50 suggest a middling, not broken, market, so patient operators willing to buy distressed below median may find workable deals, but the market does not offer a structural tailwind.

No economic anchor data was provided for Marshall County, so the underlying drivers of rental demand and employment stability cannot be evaluated from the available inputs. Investors should independently research the county's employment base before committing, particularly given a population of roughly 31,700, which is small enough that the loss of a single major employer would meaningfully shift vacancy and rental demand.

On carry costs, the combined monthly tax and insurance figure of $198 is already embedded in the $341 estimated monthly expenses. The state-average effective property tax rate of 0.86% carries a "normal" flag, meaning it is neither a meaningful headwind nor a tailwind relative to national norms. That said, the note accompanying the data is worth taking seriously: this is a state-average estimate from Tax Foundation 2024 data, and actual county or township rates in Kentucky can diverge from the state average, so verify the local millage directly before finalizing your underwrite.

The most specific risk in Marshall County is scale. At 31,706 residents, the rental pool is thin. Concentration risk is real, meaning a portfolio of even five or ten units represents a non-trivial share of market activity, and a localized economic disruption, a plant closure or a shift in a single industry, could move vacancy rates in a way that would not register in a metro of 300,000. The 7.36% year-over-year price decline warrants scrutiny, whether that reflects a broader correction, a thin transaction sample distorting the median, or something more structural is information not available in this dataset but essential before underwriting.

Compared to its neighbors, Marshall County is neither the cheapest nor the best-yielding option. Calloway County is the clearest contrast: median home price of $176,410, median rent of $1,141, and a rent-to-price ratio of 0.78% per month against Marshall's 0.49%. Calloway's gross yield is roughly 9.3% annualized versus Marshall's 5.87%, a gap wide enough that a cash-flow focused buyer should look at Calloway first. Crittenden County at $119,603 median and Johnson County at $138,885 offer lower entry points that could shift the debt-service math materially, though neither has rent data available here to confirm yield. Bourbon County at $245,392 with an overall score of 51 costs more for essentially the same composite rating. Marshall County makes the most sense over its neighbors if an investor has a specific off-market opportunity below the $199,177 median, a relationship with local property management, or a value-add thesis that does not depend on the broader market's median rent or appreciation trajectory. Otherwise, Calloway County's published yield data makes it the stronger default choice for buy-and-hold in this region.