Lyon County

Lyon County, Kentucky scores a 44 overall and sits in the 10th percentile nationally out of 1,000 counties ranked, landing 101st out of 120 Kentucky counties. The cash-flow score is 0 and the cap rate field returns zero, which signals the model cannot construct a viable rent-coverage scenario at the $179,438 median price point, at least not at a 6.85% rate with standard expense loads. The appreciation score is 3 out of 100, and home prices declined 10.8% year-over-year, so this market is not compensating for thin or absent cash flow with price growth either. The affordability index of 92 confirms homes are cheap in absolute terms, but cheap purchase prices mean nothing to a buy-and-hold investor if rents are too thin to clear expenses. Based purely on the numbers provided, Lyon is neither a cash-flow market nor an appreciation market right now.

The buyer profile this market would theoretically attract is a deep-discount, value-add operator who can acquire well below the median and manufacture equity through renovation, or a patient all-cash buyer who can sidestep the 6.85% financing drag entirely. At $179,438 median with a $35,888 down payment, a leveraged investor faces a mortgage payment that the model cannot support with available rental income, which is the definition of negative leverage. An all-cash buyer eliminates that problem and changes the math entirely, but must still underwrite carefully given the 10.8% price decline, which suggests either distress, illiquidity, or both. There is no data here to support a standard 20%-down, financed buy-and-hold strategy at the median price.

Lyon County has a population of 8,721, which puts it firmly in small, rural Kentucky territory. No economic anchors or employer data were provided for this county, so no conclusions can be drawn about the depth or stability of the local employment base. What the population figure does tell you is that the renter pool is shallow by definition. A county this small has limited tenant turnover, limited demand diversification, and meaningful concentration risk: one large employer leaving, one demographic shift, or one regulatory change can move the vacancy needle substantially in a market where the absolute number of renters is already small.

On carry costs, the monthly tax and insurance load comes to $178, based on Kentucky's state-average effective property tax rate of 0.86% and an insurance rate of 0.33%. The tax rate is flagged as normal and does not warrant special underwriting attention on its own. At $1,543 annually in property tax and $592 in insurance, these line items are manageable relative to the purchase price. That said, as the data note makes clear, this is a state-average estimate and actual county or township rates in Lyon may differ, so pulling the exact millage rate before closing is standard due diligence. Insurance in western Kentucky can carry weather-related surcharges that a blended state average does not capture, so get a real quote early in the underwrite.

The primary risks here are size and liquidity. A population of 8,721 means a limited buyer pool when you want to exit, limited tenant demand to absorb vacancies, and limited comparables to support your appraisal. The 10.8% year-over-year price decline may reflect some of that illiquidity already. No vacancy, crime, or regulatory data were provided, so no specific claims can be made in those areas, but any investor underwriting a county this small should stress-test their vacancy assumption aggressively, not use a standard 5% to 8% placeholder.

Compared to the neighboring counties provided, Lyon's $179,438 median is the second highest in the group, trailing only Marshall County at $204,272. Marshall also carries the highest overall score in the set at 46, still a weak score in absolute terms but two points better than Lyon's 44. Floyd County at $88,069 and an overall score of 44 offers far cheaper entry for an investor who wants to speculate on rural Kentucky at lower absolute risk of capital, though it scores identically. Estill and Jackson counties both land at 45 and price between $113,729 and $124,506, making them marginally cheaper and marginally better-scored than Lyon. Whitley County at $148,725 and a 47 overall score is the relative standout in this peer group, with the highest score and a mid-range price point. An investor choosing Lyon over these alternatives needs a specific reason, whether a below-median acquisition, a known local tenant base, or an all-cash strategy that neutralizes the financing problem. Without that specific edge, the neighboring county data suggests Whitley County deserves a closer look before committing capital to Lyon.