Androscoggin market analysis
Androscoggin County's numbers place it squarely in the middle of the cash-flow versus appreciation spectrum, though closer to the appreciation end than most buy-and-hold investors would prefer. At a median home price of $328,518 and median rent of $1,589, the gross rent-to-price ratio comes in at 0.58%, well below the 1% threshold that signals natural cash-flow territory. The cap rate of 3.77% confirms the same story: you are buying yield that is thin before financing costs enter the picture. Once they do, the model turns negative fast. At 6.85% on a 20% down payment of $65,704, the monthly mortgage runs $1,722, and with estimated expenses of $556, total monthly carry sits around $2,278 against $1,589 in rent. That produces an estimated cash-on-cash return of negative 10.94% and a monthly cash flow of negative $689. Home price appreciation of 1% year-over-year offers little near-term consolation, and the affordability index of 60 out of 100 suggests the market is not cheap enough to attract speculative buying pressure that would accelerate gains.
The investor this market suits is not a pure cash-flow buyer operating at current interest rates, at least not on a standard leveraged acquisition. The negative $689 monthly figure at 80% LTV is a real carry problem that does not resolve without either a larger down payment to reduce debt service, a purchase meaningfully below the median, or a value-add play that pushes rents above current market. A value-add operator who can acquire at a discount, rehabilitate, and reposition rents upward has the most logical path to a workable return here. An appreciation-oriented buyer needs to believe that Androscoggin's 1% year-over-year price growth accelerates, which the data does not currently support. The overall score of 57 out of 100 and a national percentile rank of 42 position this county as a below-median opportunity nationally, though it ranks fifth out of sixteen Maine counties, meaning it is a mid-tier option within a state that is not itself a high-yield rental environment.
The $435 per month combined tax and insurance figure deserves attention in your underwrite. At Maine's state-average effective property tax rate of 1.36%, the annual tax burden on this asset is estimated at $4,468, with annual insurance adding another $756. The 1.36% rate is flagged as normal, not elevated, so it does not represent a particular headwind compared to other states, but it is also not a tailwind. That said, the tax Foundation estimate is a state-average figure; actual county and township rates in Androscoggin may differ, and you should pull the specific mill rate for any target municipality before finalizing your numbers. At $435 per month, this line item alone consumes 27% of gross rent and is a real drag in a market where gross rent-to-price is already tight.
On the risk side, the stability score of 50 out of 100 is the lowest of Androscoggin's scored categories and warrants scrutiny. A stability score at the midpoint suggests some sensitivity to economic or demographic shifts, though the data does not provide vacancy statistics or crime figures to explain the driver. The population of 111,532 makes this a mid-sized county by Maine standards, large enough to sustain a functional rental market but not so large that it generates the deep liquidity and tenant pool depth of a major metro.
Comparing Androscoggin to its neighbors clarifies where it sits competitively. Aroostook County to the north has a median home price of $158,894, a median rent of $950, and a rent-to-price ratio of 0.72%, with an overall score of 61. That ratio is meaningfully better than Androscoggin's 0.58%, though the lower absolute rent and more remote location introduce their own demand risks. Penobscot County, home to Bangor, scores 63 overall with a rent-to-price ratio of 0.67% and a median home price of $270,057, offering a better yield profile at lower entry cost. Kennebec County scores 53 with a rent-to-price ratio of 0.56%, slightly worse than Androscoggin on yield. Franklin and Washington counties lack sufficient rental data to compare directly on yield. The case for choosing Androscoggin over Penobscot or Aroostook is not obvious from the numbers alone. An investor committed to this corner of Maine would need a specific local edge, a below-market acquisition, a value-add angle, or a longer hold thesis, to justify the thinner math here relative to what Penobscot County offers at a lower price point and higher yield ratio.
Scenario comparison
| Scenario | Purchase price | Monthly cash flow | Cap rate | Cash-on-cash |
|---|---|---|---|---|
75% of median value-add or distressed | $246,389 | -$259/mo | 5.0% | -5.5% |
Median typical MLS deal | $328,518 | -$689/mo | 3.8% | -10.9% |
125% of median newer / premium | $410,648 | -$1,120/mo | 3.0% | -14.2% |
Price History
Median Home Price
Median Rent
Historical data from Zillow ZHVI/ZORI
Quick Investment Calculator
Purchase
Monthly Cash Flow
* Based on county median values. 35% expenses include taxes, insurance, maintenance, vacancy, and property management. Actual results vary by property.
Score Breakdown
Based on 5.80% rent-to-price ratio. Higher ratios indicate stronger cash flow potential.
Based on 1.0% YoY price growth. Moderate growth (3-8%) scores highest.
Population data not available.
Based on price relative to estimated local incomes.
Scores are calculated using real Zillow home value and rent data, Census population data, and economic indicators. The weighted average produces the overall investment score. Markets with missing rent data use estimated values based on regional averages.
Investment Outlook
Strengths
- +Complete rent data available
Challenges
- -Negative cash flow at typical financing (-$689/mo)
- -Negative leverage (cap rate 3.8% < mortgage rate 6.9%)
Economic Indicators
Who this market fits
- +All-cash buyers: removing debt service flips the cap rate to actual yield
- −You need positive cash flow on day one at typical leverage
- −You can't tolerate negative leverage (cap rate below mortgage rate today)
Compare to Nearby Counties
Section 8 in Androscoggin County: payment standards by ZIP, PHA waitlist status, and voucher counts are on VoucherMatch, the same HUD dataset with the tenant demand side attached.
The Bottom Line
Androscoggin County in Maine scores 57/100, ranking #451 of 1,000 US counties (top 58%). At 20% down and current rates, a median-priced rental loses about $689/month; the 5.80% gross rent-to-price ratio doesn't survive debt service. The thesis here is appreciation, value-add, house hacking, or all-cash.