Midland rent & investment research · TX

Midland metro rent report

Buy Midland rent that survives an employer exit; a high oil price is not a durable lease.

Typical asking rent$1,571per month · September 2026
One-year change-1.0%same month, one year earlier
Three-year change+5.0%all homes and bedroom counts

Zillow all-home metro asking-rent index · All bedroom counts · Seasonally adjusted

By RentalCalcs editorial · Reviewed

Pump jacks silhouetted against sunset near Midland, Texas
Oil production near Midland, November 2009. Energy activity anchors the local demand question; this archival photograph does not establish current drilling, employment or rental demand.
Photo creditNational Institute for Occupational Safety and Health · Public domain. Resized/WebP, no crop.

The investment view

Favor an occupied annual rental with reconciled collections and cash for a clustered vacancy. A corporate lease can be valuable, but its premium must pay for furnishing, service and termination exposure. In a market where energy, employment and wages can move differently, price the fallback household lease before paying for the strongest month in a seller’s rent roll.

Midland’s rent benchmark covers Martin and Midland counties, not all of the Permian

The latest typical asking rent is $1,571 monthly for Zillow’s Midland provider market. The dated headline and chart use the same all-home, all-bedroom series. Official metro membership is Martin and Midland counties; Odessa and its Ector County housing are a separate market.

$1,178 → $1,571September 2021–September 2026
$1,700$1,400$1,100
2021Monthly observations2026
Typical monthly asking rent across the provider metro. Vertical scale is truncated to show changes; this is a trend line, not a dollar-size comparison. Full underlying observations are available below.
Monthly rent data
Zillow all-home, all-bedroom metro ZORI; seasonally adjusted; displayed dollars rounded
MonthTypical rent
September 2021$1,178
October 2021$1,172
November 2021$1,167
December 2021$1,173
January 2022$1,176
February 2022$1,182
March 2022$1,190
April 2022$1,215
May 2022$1,247
June 2022$1,273
July 2022$1,292
August 2022$1,312
September 2022$1,330
October 2022$1,355
November 2022$1,372
December 2022$1,392
January 2023$1,403
February 2023$1,411
March 2023$1,418
April 2023$1,422
May 2023$1,431
June 2023$1,440
July 2023$1,463
August 2023$1,480
September 2023$1,497
October 2023$1,496
November 2023$1,501
December 2023$1,499
January 2024$1,508
February 2024$1,516
March 2024$1,530
April 2024$1,539
May 2024$1,540
June 2024$1,544
July 2024$1,539
August 2024$1,545
September 2024$1,544
October 2024$1,564
November 2024$1,568
December 2024$1,574
January 2025$1,566
February 2025$1,565
March 2025$1,567
April 2025$1,591
May 2025$1,602
June 2025$1,614
July 2025$1,603
August 2025$1,595
September 2025$1,588
October 2025$1,579
November 2025$1,581
December 2025$1,583
January 2026$1,591
February 2026$1,594
March 2026$1,590
April 2026$1,572
May 2026$1,565
June 2026$1,557
July 2026$1,565
August 2026$1,568
September 2026$1,571

A combined Midland–Odessa employer report can explain regional exposure without becoming a Midland rent estimate. Likewise, a furnished house occupied by a work crew has services and lease terms absent from a conventional apartment. Use the index to follow direction, then compare the actual home, lease length and expenses.

Midland’s job growth and falling average hourly earnings argue against a simple oil-to-rent forecast

Dallas Fed labor dashboard · distinct measures

+2.6%Midland employment
March–June 2026, annualized growth
−14.6%Midland hourly earnings
June 2026 versus June 2025
3.4%Midland unemployment
June 2026; 3.1% in March
These are not three estimates of the same trend. The employment figure is an annualized pace over three months, earnings compare one year, and unemployment is a level. Changing workforce composition can move average earnings without an equivalent pay cut for a continuing worker.

The July MDC table provides another mixed reading: Midland employment rose 3.1% from a year earlier, while Permian rig count fell 1.69% and local hotel receipts fell 4.32%. Hotel revenue is not apartment occupancy, but the divergence cautions against assigning every rental a short-stay premium.

For a buyer, the practical response is to examine concentration in the lease book: how much income depends on one company, project or renewal date? Strong energy revenue can coexist with efficiency gains, changing work schedules or weaker demand for a particular accommodation. None of these macro readings determines whether the subject’s next lease will renew.

A corporate premium has value only after service costs and exit terms

Read who owes the rent, who guarantees it, when payments begin and how early termination works. An employer booking bedrooms for a project is different from an individual employee signing an annual home lease. A company name on an application is not a payment guaranty.

Reconcile furnished income with utilities, internet, cleaning, linen replacement, management and make-ready costs. Keep refundable deposits outside revenue. Request a month-by-month record of paid occupancy, not a screenshot of the highest advertised rate. If a manager quotes gross bookings, obtain the net owner statement and service obligations.

The strongest contrary case is a documented, creditworthy commitment with a term long enough to cover the acquisition plan. It can support a premium today. Still value the next lease from matching annual rentals: a specialized furnishing budget and a high payment during one contract do not establish permanent income.

Downtown employment, field service and an Odessa commute are different comp sets

Office buildings seen looking east along West Ohio Avenue in Midland
West Ohio Avenue, July 2008. A downtown office commute and a field-service worksite create different housing searches. Check the tenant’s actual destination; the archival view does not establish today’s office occupancy.
Photo creditBilly Hathorn · CC BY-SA 3.0. Resized/WebP, no crop.

A downtown employee may compare homes by the daily office trip, while a field-service resident may prioritize the actual dispatch location and vehicle arrangements. Verify practical access and lawful parking for the proposed use. Do not assume an address near Interstate 20 commands a premium without comparable executed leases.

Keep Midland and Odessa alternatives in a renter’s cost comparison when relevant, but label their different geographies. For an investor, compare similar whole-unit rentals before using a crew-house or hotel price. The Midland ZIP rent reference narrows the search; Midland County research provides broader screening.

Dry-climate imagery is not a drainage assessment. Check the city’s floodplain mapping and the parcel’s elevation and drainage records, then obtain insurance for its actual use. Fund cooling equipment, roof condition and owner-paid utility exposure from inspection and bills. These costs remain payable if a corporate booking ends.

Two units empty for three months create a $12,000 income-and-turnover hit

Hypothetical correlated vacancy · $1,700 rent and $900 turn cost per unit

$10,200rent not collected over three months
$1,800additional make-ready cash
$12,000combined cash-flow reduction
Same three-month interruption, varying the number of affected units
Units affectedRent loss plus turn cost
1$6,000
2$12,000
3$18,000
Scenario inputs, not observed vacancy or contractor quotes. Rent loss reduces receipts; it is not a contractor invoice. Continuing debt and operating costs are additional obligations already present in the annual budget. Replace overlapping loss assumptions rather than adding the same vacancy twice.

The lesson is about timing and shared exposure. Four leases tied to one employer can behave like one large tenant. Cash available after closing and repairs must bridge the interruption; a paper annual yield cannot fund the empty months. This one-time disruption is not capitalized as a perpetual NOI loss.

Test a $400,000 four-unit against lower rent and higher operating costs

Assume four whole-unit annual leases at $1,700 monthly, 8% vacancy/collection loss, $28,000 operating expenses and $4,800 annual capital reserves. Initial repairs are $25,000. Debt is assumed at 65% of purchase price, 7% interest and 30-year amortization. Replace expenses with taxes, insurance, management, maintenance and owner-paid utilities; this is a hypothetical stabilized rental, not a listing or loan quote.

Acquisition lab · assumed Midland property

Editable assumptions, not an available listing or financing quote. Closing costs are fixed at 3% of purchase price; repairs are paid upfront. No appreciation, tax benefits, refinancing proceeds or rent growth are needed to generate the results.

Edit property assumptions
Stabilized annual operating result; downside assumes rent −5%, loss allowance +3 percentage points, operating expenses +10%
MeasureBaseDownside
Scheduled rent$81,600$77,520
After vacancy / collection loss$75,072$68,993
Net operating income (NOI)$47,072$38,193
Annual loan payments$20,757$20,757
Cash after debt + capital reserve$21,515$12,635
Debt coverage (NOI ÷ payments)2.27×1.84×
All-in acquisition basis$437,000
Cash invested$177,000
NOI / all-in basis10.77%

NOI excludes financing and capital reserves. Operating expenses must include taxes, insurance, management, routine maintenance and owner-paid utilities. A reserve reduces spendable cash; it does not make a known roof or sewer replacement disappear. Results describe a stabilized year after initial repairs. Fund renovation downtime and carrying costs separately; they are not estimated here.

Purchase ceiling at an assumed required NOI yield on total cost, keeping this case’s income, expenses, repairs and 3% closing costs. These are investment hurdles, not surveyed cap rates.
Required yieldBase NOIDownside NOI
6.5%$678,820$546,196
7.5%$585,074$470,133
8.5%$513,387$411,968

A price below a yield ceiling can still fail debt coverage or require more cash than you have. Check the loan terms, unit-level leases and a contractor’s scope before treating a modeled ceiling as an offer.

Use the combined downside to test persistent weaker operations, and a separate monthly calendar for the employer-exit case above. Construction carry, initial furnishing and extra liquidity are not funded by this model. An assumed required yield is a buyer hurdle, not a surveyed Midland cap rate.

Acquire repeatable annual income; hold good leases and price corporate upside separately

Acquire when the household fallback carries the property

Require reconciled receipts, a legal-use check, priced repairs and a reserve left after closing. Test company concentration and common expiration dates before increasing leverage.

Hold a productive lease before chasing the last advertised dollar

Compare renewal collections with a complete vacant turn. Renovate elective finishes only when matching signed leases support a premium after downtime and additional costs.

Pass when the seller’s price needs uninterrupted project housing

Revisit after enforceable renewals and collected service-adjusted margins replace assumptions. A commodity rally alone is not that evidence. Renters should compare total lease cost, term and worksite travel; owners can extend the debt schedule in the multifamily calculator.

Questions behind a Midland rent decision

Does the index include Odessa?

No. Midland’s official metro covers Martin and Midland counties. A combined labor report may explain regional conditions, but its population is different from this rent series.

Can an employer lease justify higher income?

Yes, when collected payments, service costs and enforceable terms support it. Value the household fallback separately and identify how much income can disappear at one renewal.

Does a higher oil price mean higher rent next year?

The local indicators do not establish that relationship. Employment, average earnings, rig activity and temporary accommodation can diverge. Use actual lease evidence for the proposed property.

Sources and methodology

Evidence behind this report

Geography and comparable populations

Official July 2023 county membership matches the counties in Zillow’s undated provider crosswalk, retrieved October 20, 2026. Provider RegionID and CBSA are distinct identifiers. Official CBSA: 33260; separate Zillow RegionID: 394860. County and city figures are useful local checks but cannot reproduce this metro index.

Official July 2023 county membership; provider mapping has no declared boundary vintage
CountyStateZillow crosswalk
Martin CountyTXIncluded
Midland CountyTXIncluded

What the rent index measures

ZORI follows repeat asking-rent changes, weights toward the rental stock and smooths observations. It does not measure every signed lease, concessions, a two-bedroom quote, property income or a voucher payment standard. Broker apartment surveys have their own boundaries and property populations. Their vacancy and effective-rent readings are labeled by period and are never averaged into ZORI.

The headline and historical chart use one validated version. The file contains 740 metro rows; 740 have a latest-month observation. These are market counts, not rental-unit sample sizes; Zillow does not supply underlying unit sample counts here. Missing observations remain missing and prior months may be revised.

Refresh and editorial review

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Investment judgments are RentalCalcs’ analysis of the stated evidence. Purchase examples are explicitly assumed underwriting cases, not listings, appraisals, financing quotes or observed market cap rates. Report a correction.