Midland rent & investment research · TX
Midland metro rent report
Buy Midland rent that survives an employer exit; a high oil price is not a durable lease.
Zillow all-home metro asking-rent index · All bedroom counts · Seasonally adjusted
By RentalCalcs editorial · Reviewed

Photo credit
National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health · Public domain. Resized/WebP, no crop.The investment view
Favor an occupied annual rental with reconciled collections and cash for a clustered vacancy. A corporate lease can be valuable, but its premium must pay for furnishing, service and termination exposure. In a market where energy, employment and wages can move differently, price the fallback household lease before paying for the strongest month in a seller’s rent roll.
Midland’s rent benchmark covers Martin and Midland counties, not all of the Permian
The latest typical asking rent is $1,571 monthly for Zillow’s Midland provider market. The dated headline and chart use the same all-home, all-bedroom series. Official metro membership is Martin and Midland counties; Odessa and its Ector County housing are a separate market.
Monthly rent data
| Month | Typical rent |
|---|---|
| September 2021 | $1,178 |
| October 2021 | $1,172 |
| November 2021 | $1,167 |
| December 2021 | $1,173 |
| January 2022 | $1,176 |
| February 2022 | $1,182 |
| March 2022 | $1,190 |
| April 2022 | $1,215 |
| May 2022 | $1,247 |
| June 2022 | $1,273 |
| July 2022 | $1,292 |
| August 2022 | $1,312 |
| September 2022 | $1,330 |
| October 2022 | $1,355 |
| November 2022 | $1,372 |
| December 2022 | $1,392 |
| January 2023 | $1,403 |
| February 2023 | $1,411 |
| March 2023 | $1,418 |
| April 2023 | $1,422 |
| May 2023 | $1,431 |
| June 2023 | $1,440 |
| July 2023 | $1,463 |
| August 2023 | $1,480 |
| September 2023 | $1,497 |
| October 2023 | $1,496 |
| November 2023 | $1,501 |
| December 2023 | $1,499 |
| January 2024 | $1,508 |
| February 2024 | $1,516 |
| March 2024 | $1,530 |
| April 2024 | $1,539 |
| May 2024 | $1,540 |
| June 2024 | $1,544 |
| July 2024 | $1,539 |
| August 2024 | $1,545 |
| September 2024 | $1,544 |
| October 2024 | $1,564 |
| November 2024 | $1,568 |
| December 2024 | $1,574 |
| January 2025 | $1,566 |
| February 2025 | $1,565 |
| March 2025 | $1,567 |
| April 2025 | $1,591 |
| May 2025 | $1,602 |
| June 2025 | $1,614 |
| July 2025 | $1,603 |
| August 2025 | $1,595 |
| September 2025 | $1,588 |
| October 2025 | $1,579 |
| November 2025 | $1,581 |
| December 2025 | $1,583 |
| January 2026 | $1,591 |
| February 2026 | $1,594 |
| March 2026 | $1,590 |
| April 2026 | $1,572 |
| May 2026 | $1,565 |
| June 2026 | $1,557 |
| July 2026 | $1,565 |
| August 2026 | $1,568 |
| September 2026 | $1,571 |
A combined Midland–Odessa employer report can explain regional exposure without becoming a Midland rent estimate. Likewise, a furnished house occupied by a work crew has services and lease terms absent from a conventional apartment. Use the index to follow direction, then compare the actual home, lease length and expenses.
Midland’s job growth and falling average hourly earnings argue against a simple oil-to-rent forecast
Dallas Fed labor dashboard · distinct measures
March–June 2026, annualized growth
June 2026 versus June 2025
June 2026; 3.1% in March
The July MDC table provides another mixed reading: Midland employment rose 3.1% from a year earlier, while Permian rig count fell 1.69% and local hotel receipts fell 4.32%. Hotel revenue is not apartment occupancy, but the divergence cautions against assigning every rental a short-stay premium.
For a buyer, the practical response is to examine concentration in the lease book: how much income depends on one company, project or renewal date? Strong energy revenue can coexist with efficiency gains, changing work schedules or weaker demand for a particular accommodation. None of these macro readings determines whether the subject’s next lease will renew.
A corporate premium has value only after service costs and exit terms
Read who owes the rent, who guarantees it, when payments begin and how early termination works. An employer booking bedrooms for a project is different from an individual employee signing an annual home lease. A company name on an application is not a payment guaranty.
Reconcile furnished income with utilities, internet, cleaning, linen replacement, management and make-ready costs. Keep refundable deposits outside revenue. Request a month-by-month record of paid occupancy, not a screenshot of the highest advertised rate. If a manager quotes gross bookings, obtain the net owner statement and service obligations.
The strongest contrary case is a documented, creditworthy commitment with a term long enough to cover the acquisition plan. It can support a premium today. Still value the next lease from matching annual rentals: a specialized furnishing budget and a high payment during one contract do not establish permanent income.
Downtown employment, field service and an Odessa commute are different comp sets

A downtown employee may compare homes by the daily office trip, while a field-service resident may prioritize the actual dispatch location and vehicle arrangements. Verify practical access and lawful parking for the proposed use. Do not assume an address near Interstate 20 commands a premium without comparable executed leases.
Keep Midland and Odessa alternatives in a renter’s cost comparison when relevant, but label their different geographies. For an investor, compare similar whole-unit rentals before using a crew-house or hotel price. The Midland ZIP rent reference narrows the search; Midland County research provides broader screening.
Dry-climate imagery is not a drainage assessment. Check the city’s floodplain mapping and the parcel’s elevation and drainage records, then obtain insurance for its actual use. Fund cooling equipment, roof condition and owner-paid utility exposure from inspection and bills. These costs remain payable if a corporate booking ends.
Two units empty for three months create a $12,000 income-and-turnover hit
Hypothetical correlated vacancy · $1,700 rent and $900 turn cost per unit
| Units affected | Rent loss plus turn cost |
|---|---|
| 1 | $6,000 |
| 2 | $12,000 |
| 3 | $18,000 |
The lesson is about timing and shared exposure. Four leases tied to one employer can behave like one large tenant. Cash available after closing and repairs must bridge the interruption; a paper annual yield cannot fund the empty months. This one-time disruption is not capitalized as a perpetual NOI loss.
Test a $400,000 four-unit against lower rent and higher operating costs
Assume four whole-unit annual leases at $1,700 monthly, 8% vacancy/collection loss, $28,000 operating expenses and $4,800 annual capital reserves. Initial repairs are $25,000. Debt is assumed at 65% of purchase price, 7% interest and 30-year amortization. Replace expenses with taxes, insurance, management, maintenance and owner-paid utilities; this is a hypothetical stabilized rental, not a listing or loan quote.
Acquisition lab · assumed Midland property
Editable assumptions, not an available listing or financing quote. Closing costs are fixed at 3% of purchase price; repairs are paid upfront. No appreciation, tax benefits, refinancing proceeds or rent growth are needed to generate the results.
Edit property assumptions
| Measure | Base | Downside |
|---|---|---|
| Scheduled rent | $81,600 | $77,520 |
| After vacancy / collection loss | $75,072 | $68,993 |
| Net operating income (NOI) | $47,072 | $38,193 |
| Annual loan payments | $20,757 | $20,757 |
| Cash after debt + capital reserve | $21,515 | $12,635 |
| Debt coverage (NOI ÷ payments) | 2.27× | 1.84× |
NOI excludes financing and capital reserves. Operating expenses must include taxes, insurance, management, routine maintenance and owner-paid utilities. A reserve reduces spendable cash; it does not make a known roof or sewer replacement disappear. Results describe a stabilized year after initial repairs. Fund renovation downtime and carrying costs separately; they are not estimated here.
| Required yield | Base NOI | Downside NOI |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5% | $678,820 | $546,196 |
| 7.5% | $585,074 | $470,133 |
| 8.5% | $513,387 | $411,968 |
A price below a yield ceiling can still fail debt coverage or require more cash than you have. Check the loan terms, unit-level leases and a contractor’s scope before treating a modeled ceiling as an offer.
Use the combined downside to test persistent weaker operations, and a separate monthly calendar for the employer-exit case above. Construction carry, initial furnishing and extra liquidity are not funded by this model. An assumed required yield is a buyer hurdle, not a surveyed Midland cap rate.
Acquire repeatable annual income; hold good leases and price corporate upside separately
Acquire when the household fallback carries the property
Require reconciled receipts, a legal-use check, priced repairs and a reserve left after closing. Test company concentration and common expiration dates before increasing leverage.
Hold a productive lease before chasing the last advertised dollar
Compare renewal collections with a complete vacant turn. Renovate elective finishes only when matching signed leases support a premium after downtime and additional costs.
Pass when the seller’s price needs uninterrupted project housing
Revisit after enforceable renewals and collected service-adjusted margins replace assumptions. A commodity rally alone is not that evidence. Renters should compare total lease cost, term and worksite travel; owners can extend the debt schedule in the multifamily calculator.
Questions behind a Midland rent decision
Does the index include Odessa?
No. Midland’s official metro covers Martin and Midland counties. A combined labor report may explain regional conditions, but its population is different from this rent series.
Can an employer lease justify higher income?
Yes, when collected payments, service costs and enforceable terms support it. Value the household fallback separately and identify how much income can disappear at one renewal.
Does a higher oil price mean higher rent next year?
The local indicators do not establish that relationship. Employment, average earnings, rig activity and temporary accommodation can diverge. Use actual lease evidence for the proposed property.
Sources and methodology
Evidence behind this report
- Dallas Fed, Q2 2026 Permian Basin Economic Indicators: Midland-specific June labor dashboard. Employment growth is annualized; hourly earnings reflect workforce composition and are not every worker’s wage change. Energy series cover the wider Permian Basin; combined Midland–Odessa figures are not the Midland MSA.
- Midland Development Corporation/Perryman Group, July 2026 economic indicators: employment, rig count and hotel receipts have different scopes. Retrieved October 20, 2026; monthly page can be revised.
- City of Midland floodplain and drainage resources: maps and elevation-certificate requests. Parcel-specific diligence, not a hazard finding about pictured properties.
- Zillow all-home, all-bedroom, smoothed, seasonally adjusted metro ZORI CSV; observation 2026-09-30; retrieved 2026-10-20T07:45:10.471Z UTC
- Zillow repeat-rent methodology
- Census July 2023 metro delineations
- Zillow county-to-metro crosswalk, retrieved 2026-10-20
Geography and comparable populations
Official July 2023 county membership matches the counties in Zillow’s undated provider crosswalk, retrieved October 20, 2026. Provider RegionID and CBSA are distinct identifiers. Official CBSA: 33260; separate Zillow RegionID: 394860. County and city figures are useful local checks but cannot reproduce this metro index.
| County | State | Zillow crosswalk |
|---|---|---|
| Martin County | TX | Included |
| Midland County | TX | Included |
What the rent index measures
ZORI follows repeat asking-rent changes, weights toward the rental stock and smooths observations. It does not measure every signed lease, concessions, a two-bedroom quote, property income or a voucher payment standard. Broker apartment surveys have their own boundaries and property populations. Their vacancy and effective-rent readings are labeled by period and are never averaged into ZORI.
The headline and historical chart use one validated version. The file contains 740 metro rows; 740 have a latest-month observation. These are market counts, not rental-unit sample sizes; Zillow does not supply underlying unit sample counts here. Missing observations remain missing and prior months may be revised.
Refresh and editorial review
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Investment judgments are RentalCalcs’ analysis of the stated evidence. Purchase examples are explicitly assumed underwriting cases, not listings, appraisals, financing quotes or observed market cap rates. Report a correction.