Lapeer market analysis
Lapeer County sits at a gross rent-to-price ratio of 0.575%, which annualizes to a 6.9% gross yield on paper, but the actual cap rate lands at 3.74% once you layer in operating expenses. At a $296,879 median purchase price with a 20% down payment and a 6.85% mortgage, the modeled monthly cash flow is negative $632, producing a cash-on-cash return of -11.11%. That is not a rounding error, it is a structural gap between what the debt costs and what the rent covers. The appreciation score of 85 out of 100, paired with 4.52% year-over-year home price growth, tells you where this market's actual investment thesis lives: on the equity side, not the income side. Lapeer scores 56 on cash flow and 85 on appreciation, and those two numbers define exactly what kind of asset you're buying.
That profile fits a specific kind of buyer. If you are an appreciation-oriented investor with patience and a tolerance for monthly carry losses, Lapeer's price growth and relative affordability, an affordability index of 66, give you a reasonable entry point into a market adjacent to expensive southeast Michigan metros. If you need cash flow to cover a mortgage payment today, the math at 6.85% does not work, and pretending otherwise wastes your time. The 3.74% cap rate also means value-add operators need to find deals with meaningful upside well below the $296,879 median, because at market price there is no margin for rehab cost and still get to a workable yield. Stability scores at 50 out of 100, which is roughly median, meaning this is not a fortress market, but it is not fragile either.
The $445 monthly tax-and-insurance figure deserves a hard look before you sign anything. The state-average effective property tax rate in Michigan runs 1.54%, which the Tax Foundation flags as high, and that rate is the basis for the $4,572 annual tax estimate used here. Carry that next to the $1,556 monthly mortgage on a standard 20% down purchase, and your fixed monthly obligations before any maintenance or management are over $2,000. Gross rent of $1,422 does not cover it. To be clear, the 1.54% is a state-average estimate; actual Lapeer County township rates may differ, but Michigan's property tax structure has enough variation that you should pull the specific parcel's winter and summer tax bills before underwriting, not after. At this rate level, property tax is not a footnote on your pro forma, it is a primary driver of the cap rate compression you see in the 3.74% number.
Lapeer carries concentration risk worth naming. At 88,687 residents, this is a small county. Its market depth is thin compared to the suburban counties around it, which means a softer economy translates quickly into pricing and occupancy pressure. The stability score of 50 reflects that. Investors accustomed to the liquidity of larger MSAs should factor in longer average days on market and a narrower pool of qualified tenants when modeling exit timelines or tenant turn costs.
Comparing Lapeer to its neighbors clarifies the trade-off. Oakland County has a median home price of $353,204 and a rent-to-price ratio of 0.583%, almost identical to Lapeer's 0.575%, but at $56,000 more in acquisition cost. Kent County is at $335,851 with a 0.624% rent-to-price ratio, meaning better yield relative to price at roughly comparable overall scores. Berrien County stands out with a 0.671% rent-to-price ratio at $262,819, which is the strongest yield-to-price relationship in this peer group. Kalamazoo County at $263,226 and 0.592% is also priced lower with a comparable ratio. Against that backdrop, Lapeer's case is largely geographic: if proximity to the I-69 and I-75 corridors and southeast Michigan's employment base matters to your tenant profile, you pay for that access with lower yield. If cash flow is your priority over location, Berrien and Kalamazoo offer better-priced entry points with stronger gross yield ratios. Choose Lapeer when you believe southeast Michigan price appreciation will continue to compound, you can absorb the monthly carry, and you want lower acquisition costs than Oakland without abandoning the metro orbit entirely.
Scenario comparison
| Scenario | Purchase price | Monthly cash flow | Cap rate | Cash-on-cash |
|---|---|---|---|---|
75% of median value-add or distressed | $222,659 | -$243/mo | 5.0% | -5.7% |
Median typical MLS deal | $296,879 | -$632/mo | 3.7% | -11.1% |
125% of median newer / premium | $371,099 | -$1,021/mo | 3.0% | -14.3% |
Price History
Median Home Price
Median Rent
Historical data from Zillow ZHVI/ZORI
Quick Investment Calculator
Purchase
Monthly Cash Flow
* Based on county median values. 35% expenses include taxes, insurance, maintenance, vacancy, and property management. Actual results vary by property.
Score Breakdown
Based on 5.75% rent-to-price ratio. Higher ratios indicate stronger cash flow potential.
Based on 4.5% YoY price growth. Moderate growth (3-8%) scores highest.
Population data not available.
Based on price relative to estimated local incomes.
Scores are calculated using real Zillow home value and rent data, Census population data, and economic indicators. The weighted average produces the overall investment score. Markets with missing rent data use estimated values based on regional averages.
Investment Outlook
Strengths
- +Complete rent data available
Challenges
- -Negative cash flow at typical financing (-$632/mo)
- -Negative leverage (cap rate 3.7% < mortgage rate 6.9%)
Economic Indicators
Who this market fits
- +Patient holders willing to accept negative carry for equity gains
- +All-cash buyers: removing debt service flips the cap rate to actual yield
- −You need positive cash flow on day one at typical leverage
- −You can't tolerate negative leverage (cap rate below mortgage rate today)
Compare to Nearby Counties
Section 8 in Lapeer County: payment standards by ZIP, PHA waitlist status, and voucher counts are on VoucherMatch, the same HUD dataset with the tenant demand side attached.
The Bottom Line
Lapeer County in Michigan scores 64/100, ranking #273 of 1,000 US counties (top 35%). At 20% down and current rates, a median-priced rental loses about $632/month; the 5.75% gross rent-to-price ratio doesn't survive debt service. The thesis here is appreciation, value-add, house hacking, or all-cash.