Polk County

Polk County's numbers land it squarely in appreciation territory, with almost nothing left on the table for cash flow. At a rent-to-price ratio of 4.13%, the gross yield is thin before a single expense hits the ledger. The model underwrite confirms it: at a $256,182 purchase price with 20% down, a 6.85% rate produces a $1,343 monthly mortgage against $881.67 in median rent, generating an estimated negative $770 per month in cash flow and a cash-on-cash return of -15.68%. The cap rate sits at 2.68%, which is below the cost of debt by a wide margin, meaning leverage actively destroys returns here. The one genuine bright spot is price appreciation, which came in at 6.52% year-over-year. That number earned Polk a 91 out of 100 appreciation score, which is legitimately high. The overall score of 60 out of 100 and a national percentile of 52nd reflect a market that is not broken but is sharply bifurcated: excellent for long-term equity accumulation, punishing for anyone running income projections.

Given those dynamics, this county suits one profile: a patient, appreciation-oriented buyer who can absorb negative monthly carry, has conviction in the continued price trajectory, and is not relying on the property for current income. Cash-flow buyers should not underwrite this market at current prices and rates. The -$770 monthly figure is not a rounding error; it is a structural outcome of a 4.13% gross yield meeting 6.85% financing. A value-add operator faces the same ceiling because rent upside would need to be extraordinary to close the gap between $881.67 in median rent and the break-even rent implied by the expense stack. The affordability index of 75 and median price of $256,182 suggest the market is not prohibitively expensive for an owner-occupant, but for a pure investor, entry price relative to income is the problem.

The taxInsurance data shows a combined monthly tax and insurance burden of $316, using a state-average effective property tax rate of 1.13%. That rate falls in the normal range and does not represent a meaningful additional headwind beyond what is already captured in the underwrite's $309 estimated expense figure. Worth noting: the 1.13% figure is a state-average estimate from the Tax Foundation, and actual Polk County or township rates may vary from that baseline. At $316 per month, the combined carry cost is not outsized relative to the purchase price, but it is one more line item pressing against a rent that is already insufficient to service the debt.

The most direct risk in Polk County is population scale. At 31,128 residents, this is a small county, and small-county rental markets can shift meaningfully with the arrival or departure of a single large employer, a school, or a government facility. The stability score of 50 out of 100 reflects that underlying uncertainty. Concentration risk is real: a portfolio of even a handful of units in a county this size represents a non-trivial share of the rental supply, and a local demand shock, whether demographic or economic, will reprice rents faster than it would in a larger metro. There is no vacancy or crime data provided here, but investors should treat thin liquidity and limited exit options as built-in features of any small-county Minnesota hold.

Compared to the neighboring counties in the dataset, Polk's relative position is easy to read. Rice County carries a rent-to-price ratio of 4.99%, Stearns is at 4.92%, and both Hennepin and Washington are above 5.5%. Each of those neighbors produces materially better gross yields than Polk's 4.13%, and Hennepin and Washington layer in metro-scale liquidity that Polk simply cannot offer. All five neighbors share the same overall score of 60, so there is no quality gap, only a price-versus-income gap. An investor should choose Polk over these neighbors only if the appreciation thesis is specific and defensible, for instance, if local conditions driving that 6.52% annual gain are expected to persist and the investor's hold period is long enough to let equity accumulation offset the ongoing negative carry. If income matters at all to the underwrite, any of the higher-yielding neighbors, particularly Hennepin or Washington for liquidity or Stearns for a smaller-market analog with better rent coverage, will pencil more cleanly.