Saint Louis County

Saint Louis County, MN sits at a gross rent-to-price ratio of 0.64% monthly, or roughly 7.7% annualized, which places it in the middle tier of cash-flow markets. The model cap rate comes in at 4.19% at a $255,915 purchase price with $1,372.57 in median monthly rent, and the leveraged picture is negative: the modeled cash-on-cash return is -9.15%, with estimated monthly cash flow of -$449 after a $1,342 mortgage payment and $480 in additional expenses. At a 6.85% interest rate on an 80% LTV loan, the financing cost simply outpaces what the rent supports today. What partially offsets that is a 5.63% year-over-year home price gain, and an appreciation score of 88 out of 100, which is the standout number in this county's profile. This is a market where the ledger leans heavily toward equity accumulation rather than monthly income, and any investor who underwrites it expecting immediate cash flow will be disappointed by the numbers.

That profile tells you exactly who this market suits and who it does not. An appreciation-oriented buyer holding a five-to-ten year horizon has a reasonable case here: median prices at $255,915 are still accessible, the appreciation score of 88 ranks well above average, and a 5.63% annual price gain on a leveraged position compounds meaningfully over time. A pure cash-flow buyer has no entry point at current financing rates, the -$449 monthly shortfall requires a subsidy from another income source, and the 4.19% cap rate won't pencil against debt service. A value-add operator could potentially improve the math by lifting rents above the $1,372 median or acquiring below the median price, but the base-case numbers offer no margin for error. The affordability index of 75 and overall score of 69 (78th national percentile out of 1,000 counties) suggest the market is reasonably competitive without being frothy, which gives an appreciation buyer a defensible entry rather than a bubble-risk one.

The stability score of 50 deserves direct attention. That is the weakest number in Saint Louis County's scorecard and it is the one that should give a long-hold investor the most pause, particularly in a market where the thesis depends on holding through multiple cycles to harvest appreciation. A stability score at the midpoint implies meaningful volatility risk in either price or rent, and a buyer banking on that 5.63% annual appreciation continuing must weigh the likelihood of mean reversion against a stability profile that does not support high confidence. The population of 200,122 is large enough to sustain reasonable rental demand, but without trend data, it is worth verifying locally whether that population is growing, flat, or contracting before committing capital.

On carry costs, the combined monthly tax and insurance load is $316, using a state-average effective property tax rate of 1.13% (Tax Foundation 2024) and an insurance rate of 0.35%. That $316 is already embedded in the $480 estimated monthly expenses figure and is a real but not alarming line item. The 1.13% rate is flagged as "normal" for Minnesota, so it does not represent an unusual drag on underwriting. That said, the note accompanying this data is worth taking seriously: it is a state-average estimate, and actual county or township rates in Saint Louis County may differ. Duluth, which anchors the county, has historically carried city-assessed property tax rates that can diverge from the state average, so pulling the actual mill rate for any specific parcel before closing is a necessary step rather than an optional one.

Compared to the neighboring counties in the dataset, Saint Louis County presents a specific trade-off worth naming. Stevens County has a lower median home price at $204,884 and a slightly higher overall score of 72, which makes it worth examining for an investor prioritizing entry cost and score. Pine County at $261,402 and a score of 70 is nearly a wash with Saint Louis on both dimensions. Blue Earth County shows a rent-to-price ratio of 0.609% monthly against Saint Louis's 0.644%, meaning Saint Louis actually generates modestly better rent yield relative to price than Blue Earth, even though Blue Earth's $1,489.94 median rent is nominally higher. Wabasha and Houston counties both carry significantly higher median prices ($317,593 and $324,551 respectively) with lower overall scores of 68 and 67, making them harder to justify relative to Saint Louis on a pure numbers basis. An investor should choose Saint Louis County over its neighbors specifically when the appreciation score of 88 and the 5.63% price growth rate are the primary thesis, and when the buyer can absorb negative carry in the short term. An investor who needs the deal to cash flow from day one should look at Stevens County first.