Sherburne County

Sherburne County's numbers place it squarely in appreciation territory, with cash flow that is negative under conventional financing. The gross rent-to-price ratio sits at 4.88%, which translates to a cap rate of 3.17% at the $391,353 median price point. Run the standard 20% down scenario at 6.85%, and monthly mortgage comes to $2,052 against estimated rent of $1,590, producing negative cash flow of roughly $1,018 per month and a cash-on-cash return of -13.57%. That is not a rounding error; it is a structural feature of this market at current rates and prices. Home prices did grow 2.63% year-over-year, and the appreciation score of 76 out of 100 reflects that Sherburne has historically rewarded buyers who held for equity rather than income. The affordability index of 46 and an overall score of 54, landing at the 33rd percentile nationally, tell you this is a middle-of-the-road market with a clear lean toward one side of the cash-flow versus appreciation spectrum.

This market makes little sense for a cash-flow buyer unless they are bringing significantly more than 20% down, buying below median, or finding value-add opportunities that substantially lift rents above the $1,590 median. At the numbers as they stand, even eliminating the mortgage payment entirely still produces a cap rate under 3.5%, meaning the unlevered yield on assets here is thin. The appreciation buyer with a 7-to-10-year horizon is the more natural fit: someone willing to absorb negative carry in exchange for exposure to a growing suburban county where price appreciation has been consistent. A value-add operator could also find a path here if they can acquire distressed product below median, force appreciation through renovation, and either refinance at a higher basis or sell into an owner-occupant buyer pool that is willing to pay $391,000 and up for turnover-ready product.

The combined monthly tax and insurance burden of $483 is material but not alarming at a 1.13% state-average effective property tax rate, which Minnesota's Tax Foundation data classifies as normal. It is worth noting that this figure is a state-average estimate and actual county or township rates in Sherburne may differ, so verify the specific parcel's tax bill before finalizing any underwrite. That $483 is already baked into the $556 estimated expenses figure, but investors coming from lower-tax states should understand that Minnesota's property taxes are a real line item, not an afterthought. At the $391,353 price point, annual property tax of $4,422 and insurance of $1,370 represent costs that do not flex downward in a vacancy month.

The primary risk in Sherburne is concentration. With a population of 97,820, this is a county whose rental demand is tied to its role as a Twin Cities exurb. That relationship cuts both ways: suburban growth has driven price appreciation, but the rental pool is thinner and more rate-sensitive than in core urban markets. If remote work preferences shift back toward urban cores, or if buyers who would otherwise rent in Sherburne are priced into homeownership by a rate decline, rental demand could soften quickly. The stability score of 50 reflects this middle-ground position.

Compared to its neighbors, Sherburne is not the obvious choice on any single metric. Isanti County to the east has a slightly higher rent-to-price ratio of 5.01% and a better overall score of 57 at a median price of $329,762, making it more accessible for buyers chasing cash flow or simply trying to reduce the negative carry. Benton County posts the best overall score among the group at 58, with a median price of $299,058 and a 4.44% rent-to-price ratio, though its rent of $1,105 signals a thinner rental market. Carver County carries a higher median price of $470,978 and a matching overall score of 54, with rent-to-price at 4.96%, essentially the same cash-flow profile as Sherburne but with more capital at risk. Douglas County, at a 4.24% ratio and overall score of 52, is the weakest cash-flow option in the set. Sherburne makes the most sense over its neighbors when the investor's thesis is specifically Twin Cities suburban appreciation and they want a lower entry price than Carver while staying closer to the metro than Benton or Douglas. If the goal is yield, Isanti or Benton deserve a harder look first.