Todd County

Todd County sits at a median home price of $273,092 with 4.42% year-over-year appreciation, landing it firmly in appreciation-leaning territory for a rural Minnesota market. The data does not include cap rate or cash-flow figures, which is itself informative: the scoring model returns zeros across cash-flow, cap rate, and cash-on-cash return, and the cash-flow score is explicitly 0 out of 100. The appreciation score, by contrast, is 84, and the overall score of 70 places Todd in the 81st percentile nationally across 1,000 counties. That combination, high appreciation score paired with no cash-flow signal, tells you this market rewards equity accumulation rather than monthly spread. An affordability index of 71 and a $273,092 median suggest prices are not extreme for rural Minnesota, but rents apparently haven't kept pace well enough to generate meaningful yield at a 6.85% financing rate.

For the cash-flow buyer looking to cover the mortgage and pocket surplus from day one, Todd County is not the play, at least not at market prices with conventional financing. The appreciation buyer or longer-horizon buy-and-hold investor who prioritizes equity build and price growth is better positioned here. The 4.42% annual appreciation, if it holds, compounds meaningfully on a $273,092 asset. The value-add operator might find opportunity if they can acquire below median, force equity through renovation, and either refinance into better yield or exit into an appreciating market, but nothing in the data confirms a discount-rich pipeline of distressed inventory, so that thesis would need boots-on-the-ground validation.

No economic anchor data was provided for Todd County, so employer concentration and job-base depth cannot be assessed from this dataset. What the population figure of 25,277 does convey is a small, rural county where rental demand is likely thin and tenant turnover can have an outsized impact on annual returns. A single vacancy month in a low-rent rural unit represents a much larger percentage of gross annual income than it would in a metro submarket. Stability scores this at 50 out of 100, essentially the midpoint, which is consistent with a rural county that isn't collapsing but isn't anchored by a diversified economic base either.

On carry costs, the combined monthly tax and insurance burden comes to $337, using Minnesota's state-average effective property tax rate of 1.13% and an insurance rate of 0.35%. That note matters: the 1.13% rate is a state-average estimate from Tax Foundation 2024 data, and actual county or township assessments in Todd County may differ. The flag here is "normal," meaning this rate isn't a structural drag the way a 1.7% or 2.0% rate would be, but $337 per month in fixed carry before any maintenance, management, or vacancy reserve is still a real number on a property that may generate limited gross rent. At a 6.85% interest rate on a $273,092 purchase with 20% down, the financing alone is already a significant hurdle. Investors should model $337 in tax and insurance as a hard monthly line item and stress-test it against realistic local rent levels before underwriting.

The primary risks here are market size and liquidity. A county of 25,277 people in rural Minnesota has a shallow buyer pool, which cuts both ways: it can suppress price discovery on the way in (a potential upside) but also extends days-on-market when you need to exit. Concentration risk is real in small rural markets where a single employer contraction or demographic outmigration can shift vacancy rates materially. The stability score of 50 is a direct reflection of that. No vacancy or regulatory data was provided, so those dimensions cannot be quantified here.

Against its neighbors, Todd's $273,092 median sits in the middle of the comparison set. Swift County at $188,268 and Stevens County at $204,884 offer meaningfully lower entry points with overall scores of 73 and 72, respectively, both slightly higher than Todd's 70. If cash preservation and lower absolute exposure matter, either of those markets offers more room for yield at lower leverage. Pine County at $261,402 and a matched overall score of 70 is the closest comp and may appeal to investors who want similar market characteristics with roughly 4% less capital deployed at the median. Wabasha and Dodge counties carry higher prices ($317,000-plus) with overall scores of 68 and 72, respectively. Todd makes the most sense over its neighbors when an investor specifically weights appreciation potential, where Todd's 84 appreciation score likely outpaces the comparison group, and is comfortable holding for three to five or more years to let that equity growth do the work that monthly cash flow is not doing.