Dodge County

Dodge County posts a 90 appreciation score and a 6.2% year-over-year price gain on a median home price of $336,975, which tells you most of what you need to know about where this market sits on the spectrum. The cash flow score is 0, meaning the numbers as modeled do not pencil for a traditional buy-and-hold rental on current financing. At 6.85% on a 20% down conventional loan, the debt service alone is heavy, and with cap rate and cash-on-cash return both at zero in the model, there is no margin to absorb vacancy or capex. This is an appreciation-first market, and investors who approach it expecting monthly income without a significant equity cushion or rate improvement are going to be disappointed quickly.

That framing makes the ideal buyer profile pretty narrow. An appreciation buyer, particularly one who can put more than 20% down to reduce carry costs, or a near-cash buyer who can hold through a rate environment and refinance later, fits best. The 6.2% price appreciation is real and the market ranks 183rd out of 1,000 counties nationally, landing in the 77th percentile overall, which is a legitimate result in a county of just under 21,000 people. Value-add operators might find some opportunity if they can acquire below the $336,975 median, force appreciation through renovation, and reposition at a higher rent tier, but the base case does not support a leveraged cash-flow play at current rates. A pure cash-flow buyer should look elsewhere in this dataset before committing capital here.

On carry costs, the combined monthly tax and insurance figure is $416, using the state-average effective property tax rate of 1.13% (Tax Foundation 2024) plus a 0.35% insurance rate applied to the $336,975 purchase price. That works out to roughly $3,808 in annual taxes and $1,179 in insurance. The 1.13% tax rate is flagged as normal, meaning it is not a material drag beyond what you would expect in Minnesota generally, but county and township rates can vary from the state average, so confirm the actual levy for any specific parcel before underwriting. At $416 per month, tax and insurance are not the reason this market fails on cash flow; the debt service at 6.85% is doing most of that work.

The affordability index of 58 points to a market that is pricing out a meaningful share of would-be buyers relative to local incomes, which historically supports rental demand as ownership becomes less accessible. That is a reasonable structural tailwind for landlords, even if the current income-to-expense math is tight. The population of 20,893 is small, which cuts both ways: the market is less liquid, and a single large employer shift or demographic change hits proportionally harder than in a larger metro. There is no economic anchors data provided for Dodge County, so no employer-level analysis can be made here, but the small population is itself a concentration risk worth flagging. Thin markets mean fewer comps, slower leasing absorption, and more sensitivity to localized demand shifts. Investors accustomed to metro liquidity should underwrite longer vacancy assumptions.

Comparing Dodge to its neighbors, the picture gets more interesting. Pine County scores 70 overall at a median price of $261,402, roughly $75,000 less per door, which likely gives a materially better cash-flow setup despite no rent data being published here. Blue Earth County at $293,828 median shows a rent-to-price ratio of 6.09%, which is still below typical cash-flow thresholds but provides more data to underwrite and a lower entry price. Wabasha at $317,593 and Houston at $324,551 score 68 and 67 respectively, essentially matching Dodge on the overall score but at slightly lower price points. Mille Lacs at $298,869 scores 66.

Dodge's case for selection over its neighbors rests almost entirely on its 90 appreciation score, which no neighbor in this set comes close to matching. If your thesis is capital appreciation and you are comfortable with break-even or mildly negative monthly cash flow as a cost of carry, Dodge is the stronger bet in this peer group. If your thesis is income now, Pine County's lower entry price or Blue Earth's available rent data make them more worth modeling first. Choose Dodge when appreciation is the primary return driver and you have the capital structure to hold without relying on monthly cash flow.