Lincoln market analysis
Lincoln County, Mississippi sits at a median home price of $167,175 with home values up 1.47% year-over-year, a pace that signals stability rather than momentum. The affordability index of 94 is one of the more compelling data points in this file: homes here are priced well within reach of a broad tenant base, which matters for occupancy continuity. The overall score of 69 places Lincoln in the 78th national percentile out of 1,000 counties ranked, and 14th out of 80 Mississippi counties, respectable positioning for a rural market. The cash flow score of 0 in the provided data indicates the model is not generating a positive spread at current financing terms with a 6.85% rate, which is the central tension any buyer needs to sit with before underwriting. The appreciation score of 65 and stability score of 50 paint a picture of a market that leans modestly toward long-term hold over immediate income generation, though not dramatically in either direction.
The investor this market suits most is a value-add operator or a longer-horizon buy-and-hold buyer who can acquire below the $167,175 median, push rents through renovation, and carry the asset patiently. At the current rate environment of 6.85%, a standard leveraged acquisition at median price is not generating cash flow on the model's assumptions, so a buyer depending on month-one income needs to either bring a larger down payment beyond the $33,435 base case, negotiate a meaningfully lower purchase price, or target distressed inventory that pencils differently. An appreciation buyer will find the 1.47% annual price growth underwhelming compared to higher-velocity markets, but the affordability index of 94 does suggest pricing is grounded, limiting downside. This is not a market for a passive investor expecting the deal to work at list price with standard leverage.
Lincoln County is a small market of roughly 34,855 residents. No economic anchor data was provided for this county, so employer concentration and job-base depth cannot be assessed from the available inputs. That absence is itself an underwriting signal: in markets this size, a single large employer can represent an outsized share of rental demand, and an investor should independently verify the stability of the local employment base before committing capital.
Monthly property tax and insurance on a median-priced asset run $183 combined, based on a state-average effective property tax rate of 0.81% and an insurance rate of 0.50% of value annually. Mississippi's 0.81% rate falls in the normal range, neither a tailwind nor a headwind worth flagging separately, though as the data note states, the actual Lincoln County or township rate may differ from the state average and should be confirmed before closing. The insurance figure of $836 annually, $70 per month, deserves attention: Mississippi's geographic exposure to severe weather can push actual premiums above state-average estimates, and a buyer should get county-specific insurance quotes early in due diligence rather than relying on the model figure.
The primary risks here are scale and liquidity. A population of 34,855 means the pool of qualified tenants, buyers for exit, and comparable sales is thin. Tenant turnover events carry more weight in a small market, and selling a non-performing asset quickly would likely require a price concession. There is no vacancy or regulatory data in the provided inputs, so those dimensions cannot be assessed here, but a market this size warrants conservative vacancy assumptions in any underwrite.
Among the neighboring counties provided, Lincoln's median price of $167,175 sits well below Rankin ($261,732), Tate ($238,526), and Jackson County ($210,656), and is nearly identical to Alcorn ($166,945). Lauderdale County at $122,775 is the cheapest in the comp set and carries a gross rent-to-price ratio of 11.69%, the highest of any neighbor with rent data, compared to Rankin's 7.95% and Jackson County's 7.96%. Rankin and Jackson County post overall scores of 69 and 67 respectively with full rent data available; Alcorn and Lauderdale both score 72, above Lincoln's 69. An investor should choose Lincoln over its pricier neighbors primarily on entry cost and affordability depth, but should look hard at Lauderdale County if cash flow yield is the priority, given its substantially higher rent-to-price ratio on a lower basis. If appreciation and market size matter more, Rankin County offers scale at a higher price point. Lincoln makes the most sense when an investor has a specific asset opportunity priced below the median, since the county's market-level averages do not yet support a clear cash flow or appreciation advantage over several of its neighbors.
Price History
Median Home Price
Median Rent
Historical data from Zillow ZHVI/ZORI
Score Breakdown
Rent data not available for cash flow calculation.
Based on 1.5% YoY price growth. Moderate growth (3-8%) scores highest.
Population data not available.
Based on price relative to estimated local incomes.
Scores are calculated using real Zillow home value and rent data, Census population data, and economic indicators. The weighted average produces the overall investment score. Markets with missing rent data use estimated values based on regional averages.
Investment Outlook
Strengths
- +Affordable relative to local incomes
Challenges
- -Negative leverage (cap rate 0.0% < mortgage rate 6.9%)
- -Limited rent data (estimates used)
Economic Indicators
Who this market fits
- −You can't tolerate negative leverage (cap rate below mortgage rate today)
Compare to Nearby Counties
Section 8 in Lincoln County: payment standards by ZIP, PHA waitlist status, and voucher counts are on VoucherMatch, the same HUD dataset with the tenant demand side attached.
The Bottom Line
Lincoln County in Mississippi scores 69/100, ranking #169 of 1,000 US counties (top 22%). At 20% down and current rates, a median-priced rental roughly breaks even on cash flow. The deal works on appreciation or with better terms, not on month-one cash flow.