Jasper County

Jasper County sits at a gross rent-to-price ratio of 6.76%, which lands it squarely in the middle of the cash-flow vs. appreciation spectrum, leaning slightly toward cash flow on paper but not delivering it in practice at current financing costs. The 4.4% cap rate tells the more honest story: at a 6.85% mortgage rate, there is no magic here. The modeled scenario, buying at $217,594 with 20% down, produces negative $343 per month in cash flow and a cash-on-cash return of negative 8.22%. That figure assumes a $1,141 monthly mortgage payment and $429 in estimated expenses. Home price appreciation was 1.5% year-over-year, which barely keeps pace with inflation and offers no near-term thesis for riding price gains to compensate for the carry drag. The affordability index of 83 is the most genuinely constructive number here, meaning the local price level is accessible relative to income, which matters for tenant demand and future buyer depth. Nationally, Jasper ranks in the 70th percentile across 1,000 counties, with an overall score of 66 out of 100 and a cash-flow sub-score of 68, so the model is not dismissing this market, but the numbers at current rates require careful structuring.

The investor profile this market suits is not the passive buyer writing a check at list price with conventional financing and expecting day-one cash flow. At a 6.85% rate, that math does not work. The better fit is either a cash buyer, who eliminates the $1,141 mortgage drag and can potentially clear a 4% to 5% unlevered yield on a $217,594 asset with low carrying cost, or a value-add operator who acquires below median, forces rent growth through renovation, and improves the rent-to-price ratio above the current 6.76%. The affordability score of 83 and median price just under $220,000 mean there is genuine inventory in the market at prices where value-add math pencils more easily than in higher-priced metros. An appreciation buyer has less reason to be here: 1.5% annual price growth and a stability score of just 50 out of 100 do not suggest a market that will bail out a thin initial yield with equity accumulation.

The combined monthly tax and insurance burden runs $256, which is $176 in property tax (based on Missouri's state-average effective rate of 0.97%, with the caveat that actual county and township rates will differ) and $80 in insurance. At 0.97%, the rate sits in normal territory and does not require a special flag on your underwrite, but it is not a tailwind either. The $957 annual insurance figure is worth monitoring: Missouri sits in a corridor that can attract elevated premiums depending on the specific township's storm exposure, so verifying actual quotes before closing matters more here than in a low-risk coastal-adjacent or hail-neutral market.

The stability score of 50 is the sharpest risk signal in the dataset. It sits at the midpoint and suggests the market lacks the employment depth or demographic momentum to absorb vacancy or rent pressure without meaningful income impact. No economic anchor data was provided, so the specific employer composition cannot be analyzed here, but the score warrants an investor doing direct diligence on the Joplin metro area's major employers, sector concentration, and population trend before committing. A single-industry dependency or flat-to-declining working-age population would explain a 50 stability score and would make vacancy modeling critical to any underwrite.

On the neighbor comparison, Jasper's median price of $217,594 and overall score of 66 make it more attractive on both dimensions than most of its peers. Daviess County carries a median price of $275,953 with only the same overall score of 66, meaning you are paying roughly $58,000 more for identical modeled quality. DeKalb County at $228,527 scores 65, Jefferson County at $281,743 scores 67, and Monroe County at $216,427 scores 65. Saint Francois County is the one neighbor worth a direct comparison: median price of $186,017, median rent of $1,019, and a rent-to-price ratio of 6.57%, slightly below Jasper's 6.76%, at an overall score of 65. Jasper wins that comparison because it offers a higher rent-to-price ratio, a modestly higher score, and rents ($1,226 vs. $1,019) that suggest a deeper or higher-quality tenant pool. Jefferson County's higher rent of $1,462 and price of $281,743 yield a 6.23% rent-to-price ratio, lower than Jasper, which confirms that paying up for Jefferson does not improve the income yield and only makes sense if you have a specific appreciation or metro-proximity thesis. Jasper is the right choice in this peer group for an investor optimizing the rent-to-price ratio at an accessible price point, provided the stability risk is understood going in.