Lewis County

Lewis County, Missouri scores an 86th-percentile overall rank nationally (113th out of 1,000 counties analyzed) and 16th out of 113 Missouri counties, built almost entirely on appreciation momentum and affordability rather than current income. The median home price sits at $213,137, and that figure climbed 14.25% year-over-year, a pace that is difficult to dismiss in a county with fewer than 10,000 residents. The cash-flow score, however, is zero, which means the data does not support a spread between rents and carrying costs that pencils for income-focused investors at this price point and the current 6.85% rate environment. The affordability index of 84 tells you prices remain accessible relative to incomes, which is what is driving the appreciation score of 80, but low entry price alone does not manufacture cash flow when rental rates in rural Missouri markets are constrained by local wage levels.

The investor profile this county suits is a patient appreciation buyer willing to accept minimal or negative near-term cash flow in exchange for continued price appreciation at a double-digit annual clip. The 14.25% YoY gain on a $213,137 median translates to roughly $30,400 in equity growth over the past year, a number that materially outperforms what a landlord would typically net in cash flow on a single-family rental in a rural Missouri market. A value-add operator could find opportunity here given the affordability index of 84, where below-median acquisitions leave room to force equity through renovation, but they should underwrite carefully, because the exit depends on continued price appreciation rather than cap rate compression. Cash-flow buyers who need their rentals to self-fund from day one should look elsewhere, as the zero cash-flow score is a hard signal the numbers do not currently support that strategy in Lewis County.

No economic anchors or employer data were provided for Lewis County, so drawing conclusions about job base concentration or institutional demand drivers is not possible from the available data. What the population figure of 9,987 does tell you is that this is a thinly populated rural market. Thin population means thin rental demand, limited tenant pool depth, and longer re-leasing cycles when units turn. Stability scores at 50, which is middle of the road, and in a market this size that likely reflects the vulnerability that comes with any single large employer or economic event having an outsized effect on a small tenant base.

On the carry-cost side, the combined monthly tax and insurance estimate is $250, using a state-average effective property tax rate of 0.97% and an insurance rate of 0.44%. The tax rate is flagged as normal, meaning it is neither a headwind nor a tailwind worth special attention in your underwrite, though the standard caveat applies: this is a state-average estimate from Tax Foundation 2024 data, and your actual county or township rate may differ, so pull the assessor's levy before closing. At $250 per month, taxes and insurance are a manageable line item on a $213,137 asset, but on a rental with constrained gross rent in a rural market, that figure still consumes a meaningful share of gross income. Model it explicitly, not as a rounding error.

The primary risk here is concentration, specifically the combination of a tiny population base and what appears to be appreciation driven by factors that may not be durable at a 14.25% pace. Rural Missouri markets with under 10,000 residents can see price moves driven by a handful of transactions, which can inflate YoY figures in ways that do not reflect broad demand. Investors should verify transaction volume before treating that appreciation number as representative of liquid market pricing. Regulatory and zoning risk data are not provided, but rural Missouri counties have historically been permissive environments for landlords relative to urban markets.

Compared to its neighbors in the data set, Lewis County occupies a specific niche. Andrew County and Clinton County both have higher median prices ($281,483 and $275,256 respectively) at similar or lower overall scores (73 and 70), meaning Lewis offers more affordable entry with a comparably ranked or better overall profile. Butler County at $160,557 and a rent-to-price ratio of 0.0673 is the clearest alternative for a cash-flow buyer, and Saint Louis City at a rent-to-price ratio of 0.0879 on a $175,441 median is the most income-oriented option among the neighbors shown. Choose Lewis over its neighbors when your thesis is appreciation and you want the lowest entry price among the higher-scoring Missouri counties in this comparison set. Choose Butler County or Saint Louis City when current income matters more than equity growth, as both offer measurable rent-to-price ratios that Lewis cannot currently match.