Fillmore County

Fillmore County lands in the 93rd percentile nationally and ranks 6th out of 90 Nebraska counties overall, which sounds impressive until you look at the cash-flow score: zero. The data does not include a calculated cap rate or monthly cash flow estimate, so those figures are genuinely absent rather than just low. What the data does confirm is a median home price of $188,645, 8.8% year-over-year price appreciation, and an affordability index of 90, which places it firmly on the appreciation end of the spectrum. At a $188,645 purchase price and 6.85% interest, the carrying cost of a leveraged position is real, and the missing cap rate is a gap any buyer needs to fill with local rent comps before underwriting a deal. The appreciation score of 83 and the 8.8% YoY gain suggest the market is moving, but without confirmed rent data you cannot assume the income side keeps pace.

The investor this market suits is someone buying for price appreciation in a deeply affordable small market, not someone deploying a cash-flow-first strategy. The affordability score of 90 means entry cost is low relative to income benchmarks, and 8.8% annualized appreciation on a $188,645 asset is a $16,600 gain in equity per year on paper. If you are a value-add operator who can force equity through renovation and then refinance or sell, the low entry price creates room to work. A pure cash-flow buyer, however, has no data here supporting positive carry, and with a population of 5,557, the rental pool is thin. Small absolute population numbers increase tenant concentration risk: one vacancy in a small portfolio is a large percentage of your income.

No economic anchors or employer data were provided for Fillmore County, so the drivers of rental demand and job stability cannot be assessed from this dataset. That is itself an underwriting flag. A county of 5,557 people in rural Nebraska may be dependent on agriculture and a small number of anchor employers. Before committing capital, an investor should independently verify what is generating household formation and what would cause it to contract.

The tax and insurance carry deserves its own line on your underwrite. Nebraska's state-average effective property tax rate is 1.73%, which the Tax Foundation classifies as high, and actual county or township rates may differ from that figure. On a $188,645 purchase that translates to $3,264 in annual taxes, and combined with $1,094 in estimated annual insurance, the monthly tax-and-insurance load is $363. At a 20% down payment of $37,729 and a 6.85% rate, debt service plus $363 per month in taxes and insurance represents a significant hurdle against whatever gross rent the property can generate. If you cannot source reliable local rent comparables showing meaningful positive spread above that combined figure, this is a speculative appreciation bet, not an income property.

The stability score of 50 is the other number that deserves attention. In a county with 5,557 residents, stability at the midpoint nationally reflects real demographic fragility. Rural Nebraska counties have experienced population outflows tied to agricultural consolidation and limited economic diversification. A declining or stagnant renter population means lower absorption if a unit turns vacant, longer days-on-market to re-lease, and potential pressure on rents over time. The appreciation trend may be partly supply-driven rather than demand-driven, which reverses faster than wage-driven appreciation when liquidity thins.

Compared to its neighbors, Fillmore is the second-cheapest entry point in the peer group. Cheyenne County has a median of $163,907, making it the only cheaper option among the five. Wayne County ($240,704), Colfax County ($228,344), Merrick County ($222,728), and Garfield County ($216,769) all price higher. All five neighbors share the same overall score of 75, and Colfax edges to 76. Given identical or near-identical overall scores, Fillmore's below-peer pricing combined with its 8.8% appreciation rate makes it the most interesting of the group for an appreciation-oriented buyer who wants the lowest basis. A cash-flow buyer would need to run actual rent-to-price ratios in each neighboring county before choosing, since the shared overall scores mask different cash-flow and appreciation component scores that are not fully detailed here. Choose Fillmore over its neighbors specifically when your strategy is lowest-basis appreciation with a long hold, and when your own due diligence on local rents confirms that the carry can at minimum break even.