Grafton County

Grafton County sits at a gross rent-to-price ratio of 6.55%, which places it on the lower end of cash-flow territory but meaningfully above the pure appreciation plays you find in coastal or gateway markets. The model cap rate comes in at 4.26% on a $429,567 median purchase price with $2,344 in median monthly rent, and the levered picture is considerably worse: at 6.85% financing, the estimated cash-on-cash return is -8.84%, with a projected monthly cash flow deficit of -$728 after a 20% down payment. Year-over-year home price appreciation of 3.52% is real but not exceptional. The appreciation score of 82 out of 100 is the standout number here, while the cash-flow score of 66 reflects a market that can work with the right entry price and capital structure, but will not forgive sloppy underwriting at the median.

The investor profile this market fits best is an appreciation-oriented buyer who can carry negative cash flow in the near term, or a well-capitalized buyer who can put significantly more than 20% down to reduce the mortgage burden. At $2,252 in monthly mortgage on the standard 20% down scenario, the spread between rent and PITI is thin before you even touch vacancy, maintenance, or management. A cash buyer or a buyer acquiring at a discount to the $429,567 median changes the math materially: at zero leverage, the 4.26% cap rate at least covers opportunity cost relative to short-duration treasuries and leaves room for appreciation upside. A value-add operator who can push rents above $2,344 or acquire distressed assets below median could find this market worthwhile, but the numbers at median and at standard leverage do not pencil for a straightforward buy-and-hold cash-flow strategy.

New Hampshire carries a state-average effective property tax rate of 2.18%, one of the highest in the country, and Grafton County investors need to treat this as a first-order underwriting input, not a footnote. That rate implies $9,365 in annual property tax on the median-priced asset. Combined with $988 in annual insurance, you are looking at $863 per month in tax and insurance alone before the mortgage, before management, before repairs. That single line item is large enough to turn a marginally positive pre-tax cash flow negative. The 2.18% figure is a state-average estimate from Tax Foundation 2024 data, and actual county or township rates in Grafton can differ, sometimes materially, so pulling the specific mill rate for any target municipality before contracting is not optional here. New Hampshire does not have a broad income tax or sales tax, which matters to resident tenants' disposable income and can support rental demand, but the property tax burden falls squarely on the landlord and does not get offset by those tenant-side advantages.

The stability score of 50 and affordability index of 39 are the two numbers that require honest attention to risk. An affordability index of 39 means the county is priced at roughly 39% of what a typical household would need to comfortably own, which compresses the owner-occupant buyer pool and creates structural rental demand, but it also signals that tenants themselves may be cost-burdened, which introduces sensitivity to any softening in local employment. A market of 90,836 people is small enough that a single large employer contracting can move vacancy rates in a meaningful way. The stability score of 50 is median, not a signal of distress, but it is not the kind of reading that suggests this market weathers recessions without pain. Investors should underwrite conservatively on vacancy and stress-test their models against a 10-15% rent decline scenario.

Grafton ranks second in New Hampshire out of ten counties in the overall scoring, which reflects genuine relative merit within the state. Compared to neighbors, the rent-to-price ratio of 6.55% is the highest of the group: Cheshire County is next at 5.87%, Strafford at 5.13%, Merrimack at 4.95%, and Hillsborough at 4.90%. That spread is meaningful. Grafton delivers better rental yield relative to purchase price than any of these neighbors, while also carrying a lower median price than Merrimack ($470,918), Strafford ($485,977), and Hillsborough ($503,490). Coos County is far cheaper at $258,134 median but scores 57 overall and lacks comparable rental data in the dataset. The case for choosing Grafton over Cheshire, Strafford, or Hillsborough is straightforward on the numbers: you are buying cheaper and collecting a higher rent-to-price ratio with an appreciation score of 82. The case for choosing it over Coos depends on what drives demand in each market, and the data does not support a clear answer there. Within New Hampshire, Grafton is the county to underwrite first if you want the best blend of yield and appreciation potential, provided you go in clear-eyed about the property tax load and the levered cash-flow deficit at current interest rates.