Cheshire market analysis
Cheshire County sits at a 0.058 gross rent-to-price ratio, which places it in the lower tier for cash-flow potential but not at the extreme end. The cap rate underwrite comes in at 3.77%, and at a 6.85% financing rate the leveraged math is brutal: the model estimates negative $817 per month in cash flow and a cash-on-cash return of -10.96% on a $77,807 down payment. That number deserves full weight. This is not a market where you buy a stabilized property today with conventional financing and clip a check. It is, however, a market where appreciation is doing real work: home prices grew 2.98% year-over-year, and the appreciation score of 80 out of 100 ranks it third in the state among ten counties. The overall score of 59 and a national percentile of 49 put it squarely at the median nationally, a market with upside but no margin for error on the income side.
The investor profile this county rewards is narrow. An appreciation buyer with a long hold, a low-leverage or all-cash position, or an operator running a value-add strategy that meaningfully lifts rents is who this market is built for. At $389,037 median home price and $1,880 median rent, the affordability index of 47 signals that residents are stretched, which historically contains the ceiling on rent growth but also keeps homeownership out of reach for many renters, supporting continued rental demand. A cash-flow buyer expecting day-one income with standard 20%-down financing will not find it here at current prices and rates. If your thesis is "buy, force appreciation through renovation, and refinance or sell in five to seven years," the 2.98% annual price growth gives you a credible exit. If your thesis is "collect rent and cover costs," the numbers say look elsewhere.
The property tax situation in New Hampshire is a material underwriting consideration, not a footnote. New Hampshire's state-average effective property tax rate is 2.18%, which is very high on a national basis, and carries an important caveat: that figure is a state-average estimate from Tax Foundation 2024 data, and actual county or township rates in Cheshire can differ, sometimes significantly. On a $389,037 purchase, that rate produces $8,481 in estimated annual property taxes. Combined with $895 in estimated annual insurance, the monthly tax-and-insurance load alone is $781. Against a $1,880 gross rent, that single line item consumes 41.5 cents of every dollar before you pay a mortgage, make a repair, or account for vacancy. This rate deserves its own line on every underwrite you run in this state, and in Cheshire specifically, it is the single largest lever separating a deal that pencils from one that doesn't. An investor buying below median, or one who can verify a lower township rate, may see meaningfully different numbers than the model reflects.
The stability score of 50 reflects a market that carries some concentration risk. Cheshire County's population of 76,610 is not large, which means any single employer contraction or demographic shift registers more sharply in the rental market than it would in a metro of several hundred thousand. The data provided does not include specific economic anchors for this county, so any comment on individual employers or institutions would go beyond what the numbers support. What is visible is the affordability index of 47, suggesting the local population is at the lower end of buying power, which keeps the renter pool sizable but also constrains how aggressively you can push rents without outrunning what the market will bear.
Against its neighbors, Cheshire holds a clear price advantage. At $389,037 median, it is cheaper than Grafton ($413,099), Merrimack ($470,918), Strafford ($485,977), and Hillsborough ($503,490). Only Coos County, at $258,134, is lower-priced, though Coos has no rent data provided and carries meaningful rural risk. On the rent-to-price ratio, Cheshire's 0.058 trails Grafton's 0.059 but beats Merrimack (0.049), Strafford (0.051), and Hillsborough (0.049). Grafton's overall score of 60 edges Cheshire's 59, and its slightly better ratio and higher median rent make it a legitimate competing option for a buyer comfortable with a somewhat higher entry price. Cheshire makes sense over its neighbors when you are optimizing for lower absolute purchase price while still keeping the gross yield ratio competitive, particularly if you are deploying less capital or running a value-add strategy where you need room between your basis and market value. If pure yield compression is the concern, Merrimack and Hillsborough, despite being higher-priced markets, score lower overall and show weaker rent-to-price ratios, making them harder to justify at this rate environment.
Scenario comparison
| Scenario | Purchase price | Monthly cash flow | Cap rate | Cash-on-cash |
|---|---|---|---|---|
75% of median value-add or distressed | $291,778 | -$307/mo | 5.0% | -5.5% |
Median typical MLS deal | $389,037 | -$817/mo | 3.8% | -11.0% |
125% of median newer / premium | $486,296 | -$1,327/mo | 3.0% | -14.2% |
Price History
Median Home Price
Median Rent
Historical data from Zillow ZHVI/ZORI
Quick Investment Calculator
Purchase
Monthly Cash Flow
* Based on county median values. 35% expenses include taxes, insurance, maintenance, vacancy, and property management. Actual results vary by property.
Score Breakdown
Based on 5.80% rent-to-price ratio. Higher ratios indicate stronger cash flow potential.
Based on 3.0% YoY price growth. Moderate growth (3-8%) scores highest.
Population data not available.
Based on price relative to estimated local incomes.
Scores are calculated using real Zillow home value and rent data, Census population data, and economic indicators. The weighted average produces the overall investment score. Markets with missing rent data use estimated values based on regional averages.
Investment Outlook
Strengths
- +Complete rent data available
Challenges
- -Negative cash flow at typical financing (-$817/mo)
- -Negative leverage (cap rate 3.8% < mortgage rate 6.9%)
Economic Indicators
Who this market fits
- +All-cash buyers: removing debt service flips the cap rate to actual yield
- −You need positive cash flow on day one at typical leverage
- −You can't tolerate negative leverage (cap rate below mortgage rate today)
Compare to Nearby Counties
Section 8 in Cheshire County: payment standards by ZIP, PHA waitlist status, and voucher counts are on VoucherMatch, the same HUD dataset with the tenant demand side attached.
The Bottom Line
Cheshire County in New Hampshire scores 59/100, ranking #402 of 1,000 US counties (top 51%). At 20% down and current rates, a median-priced rental loses about $817/month; the 5.80% gross rent-to-price ratio doesn't survive debt service. The thesis here is appreciation, value-add, house hacking, or all-cash.