Rockingham County

Rockingham County sits at the appreciation end of the spectrum, and the numbers make that positioning unambiguous. At a median home price of $624,657 and median rent of $2,475, the gross rent-to-price ratio comes in at 4.76%, which is thin. The modeled cap rate of 3.09% confirms what that ratio implies: you are not buying yield here, you are buying price growth. Year-over-year appreciation of 3.25% adds context, but it also means the gap between what the asset costs and what it produces in income is not closing quickly. The cash-flow score of 41 and appreciation score of 81 tell the same story. On a 20% down payment at 6.85%, the model produces a monthly mortgage of $3,275, estimated expenses of $866, and a cash flow of negative $1,665 per month, a cash-on-cash return of negative 13.91%. That is not a rounding error; it is a structural feature of this market at current prices and rates.

The investor this market suits is someone who can carry a monthly deficit and is underwriting to price appreciation and long-term equity accumulation, not current income. Rockingham's affordability index of 15 out of 100 and national percentile rank of 19th out of 1,000 counties signal that this is already an expensive market. That same expensiveness, combined with the county's location in southern New Hampshire, creates a relatively high floor for prices. A value-add operator can find opportunity here if the acquisition is below median, because rent upside is real at $2,475 median, but the carry math is punishing enough that a delayed stabilization timeline compounds the deficit quickly. Cash-flow buyers should look elsewhere. Appreciation buyers with patient capital and liquidity to absorb negative carry are the right fit.

The $1,255 per month in combined property tax and insurance deserves its own line on every underwrite here. The state-average effective property tax rate is 2.18%, flagged as very high, and at that rate annual property taxes alone on this median-priced asset run $13,618, or about $1,135 per month. Add $120 in monthly insurance and you have $1,255 leaving the account before debt service, maintenance, or vacancy. That figure is baked into the $866 expense estimate above, but investors accustomed to underwriting in low-tax states will feel the difference immediately. The honest caveat: 2.18% is a state-average estimate from Tax Foundation 2024 data, and New Hampshire's property taxes are assessed and set at the town level, so the actual rate on a specific parcel in Portsmouth, Exeter, or Salem can differ materially from that statewide figure. Verify the town rate before closing.

Rockingham scores lower than every neighboring county in the dataset. Hillsborough County, with a median price of $503,490 and rent-to-price ratio of 4.90%, scores 55 overall versus Rockingham's 48. Merrimack County at $470,918 and a 4.95% ratio scores 56. Strafford County at $485,977 and a 5.13% ratio also scores 56. Grafton County, at $413,099 and a 5.94% ratio, scores 60 and offers the best yield profile of the group. Even Coos County, with a median price of just $258,134, scores 57 despite the data not showing a rent figure. The pattern is consistent: Rockingham's premium pricing compresses yield below what every neighboring county delivers, and the market scores reflect that. The case for choosing Rockingham over its neighbors rests entirely on a belief that its proximity to Boston's labor market, higher household income profile, and Atlantic coast geography produce superior long-term price appreciation that compensates for the yield deficit. If that appreciation thesis weakens, or if rates stay elevated and the deficit persists for years, the neighboring counties offer meaningfully better income coverage with less capital at risk.

The primary risk to underwrite here is concentration in the Boston commuter dynamic. If remote work norms shift again or if Boston-area employment contracts, the price support for southern New Hampshire's premium over the rest of the state becomes less certain. The affordability index of 15 also means tenant depth at the upper end of the rent range is limited, and a landlord who needs to push rents above $2,475 to cover rising taxes or insurance faces a narrower pool of qualified renters than a landlord in a mid-priced market. None of that makes Rockingham uninvestable, but it means the margin for error on entry price and financing terms is thin, and investors should stress-test their models against a scenario where appreciation runs at half the current YoY rate for three to five years.